The “Fun Belt” weeknight action rolls on in Week 9, with the 5-2 Georgia Southern Eagles hitting the road to take on the 3-4 Old Dominion Monarchs.
With the home team favored, this matchup has all the signs of a potential trap game. Dive into our Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion prediction to see if we share the same outlook.
Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Betting Preview
All Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia Southern -6.5 - Spread
Georgia Southern -1 - Moneyline
Georgia Southern -115, Old Dominion -105 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
7 p.m. ET - Location
S.B. Ballard Stadium | Norfolk, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, clear, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
After beating the Eagles in Statesboro a year ago, the Monarchs entered the Week 9 Sun Belt clash as a surprising, small favorite. That win stands alone in the head-to-head record between the two teams, with Georgia Southern winning three straight (including two in Norfolk) in this fledgling conference rivalry.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread and moneyline were a surprise given Georgia Southern’s recent form. In fact, the line has shifted prior to kick-off to favor Georgia Southern.
Clay Helton’s team is 5-1-1 this season, while Old Dominion is 4-3 against the spread. There are plenty of reasons to take the road team both straight up and against the spread.
Georgia Southern’s Winning Probability
FPM disagrees strongly with the spread here, giving the Eagles a 66.9% chance to win the game. This translates to an implied spread of about 6.5 points in favor of Georgia Southern.
The Eagles have a chance for a special season, as they’re slight favorites in every remaining game.
- at ODU: 66.9%
- at South Alabama: 53.4%
- vs. Troy: 76.6%
- at Coastal Carolina: 58.9%
- vs. Appalachian State: 68.8%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Georgia Southern would end the year with a 10-2 overall record and a perfect Sun Belt campaign. The Eagles are currently the second favorite to claim the conference crown behind the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
Old Dominion’s Winning Probability
FPM is lower on Old Dominion in this one, as the metric has them as 6.5-point underdogs. The Monarchs have a 33.1% chance to win the game, and they’ll be slight underdogs in all of their remaining games.
- vs. Georgia Southern: 33.1%
- at Appalachian State: 38.9%
- vs. James Madison: 20.4%
- at Marshall: 33.1%
- at Arkansas State: 39.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Old Dominion would finish the 2024 season with a 3-9 overall record. After gaining bowl eligibility in two of the last three campaigns, that would constitute a disappointment and put pressure on head coach Ricky Rahne.
Prediction for Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion
The Monarchs made a quarterback switch three games ago, and while their results have improved, the offense hasn’t seen significant gains. However, Colton Joseph has taken better care of the football and brought a rushing dimension to their game.
The offense remains limited (109th in yards per play), but their strategy of bend-don’t-break defense and clock management has led to back-to-back conference wins.
Still, I’m backing the Eagles in this one. JC French has been a game-changer for a team that’s struggled with consistent quarterback play under Clay Helton, averaging around 250 yards per game while minimizing turnovers.
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This matchup will be decided in the red zone. Old Dominion’s defense ranks among the best at preventing red-zone scores, while Georgia Southern’s offense has been steady near the end zone despite challenges in the running game.
Though the Eagles are known for their offense, it’s been their defense that has shined lately. Last week, they shut down a strong James Madison squad, following a defensive-led 20-point comeback against Marshall.
For Old Dominion to come out on top, they’ll need to connect on some deep shots against a Georgia Southern defense that can be vulnerable to big plays. The Monarchs haven’t excelled in that area recently, and I believe the Eagles can grind out a win.
If Old Dominion manages a few key red-zone stops, this game could stay close. However, I’m siding with the stronger team here, even as underdogs. Expect a low-scoring contest, as both offenses have struggled to find the end zone lately.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 28, Old Dominion 20
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