Fresno State holds a 32-22-1 all-time edge over Nevada and is riding a three-game winning streak in the series. With Friday night’s Mountain West clash looming, here’s a look at the latest odds, spread breakdown, and our prediction for Fresno State vs. Nevada.
Fresno State vs. Nevada Betting Preview
All Fresno State vs. Nevada odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Fresno State -7.5 - Spread
Fresno State -2.5 - Moneyline
Fresno State -130, Nevada +110 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
10:30 ET, Friday, Oct. 18 - Location
Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, 9 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
CBSSN
After opening as four-point favorites, Fresno State saw the line move a point and a half toward Nevada, which the FPM believes provides massive value.
That said, the Bulldogs are 1-4 against the spread in their last five vs. Nevada, and the Wolf Pack is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
A couple of other trends to keep in mind:
- Fresno State is 1-4 straight up in their last five road games.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Nevada’s last 10 contests.
Fresno State’s Winning Probability
Despite the less-than-a-field-goal spread, the FPM gives the Bulldogs a 71.6% chance of defeating Nevada. In fact, they own a 60% or higher win probability in each of their final five games:
- vs. San Jose State: 73.0%
- vs. Hawaii: 75.1%
- at Air Force: 74.9%
- vs. Colorado State: 67.7%
- at UCLA: 60.6%
After ending the 2023 regular season with an 8-4 record, Fresno State is primed to win out the rest of this year, resulting in a 9-3 campaign. That would mark the program’s fourth straight with 8+ wins.
Nevada’s Winning Probability
Outside of a penultimate bout with Air Force, Nevada isn’t favored to win any of its final games this season, beginning with a 28.4% win probability against Fresno State.
Now, it’s important to note that the Wolf Pack have already surpassed their 2023 win total (2-10), but they sure wouldn’t mind adding a few more down the stretch. If we take their win probabilities at face value, Nevada would finish with a 4-9 record.
- at Hawaii: 38.1%
- vs. Colorado State: 45.7%
- at Boise State: 7.9%
- vs. Air Force: 58.9%
- at UNLV: 8.7%
Prediction for Fresno State vs. Nevada
The Wolf Pack have been punching above their weight under first-year head coach Jeff Choate, nearly pulling off an upset against a ranked SMU squad in the opener. Now sitting at 3-4, they boast an opportunistic secondary and allow 27.1 points per game.
Last week, Nevada exploded for 21 points in the fourth quarter to claim a thrilling 42-37 home victory over Oregon State. Nevertheless, the program ranks 116th in passing yards per game (174.7) and 108th in passing yards allowed (256.4).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Those numbers are poor overall, but they mean even more in this contest, with Fresno State checking in at 32nd in the nation at 270.8 passing yards per game. And with the Bulldogs coming off back-to-back losses to UNLV and Washington State, they’ll do everything in their power to earn their fourth win of the season on Friday night.
Expect Mikey Keene to play a clean game (eight INTs this season) and distribute the ball to his playmakers, specifically WR Mac Dalena, while Brendon Lewis and Co. struggle to move the ball early.
The lean is on Fresno State to win outright and cover the spread, with the over likely hitting as well.
Prediction: Fresno State 35, Nevada 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.