The Florida Gators have been battling through a tough schedule with resilience and determination. However, the recent injury to quarterback DJ Lagway has dampened some of their momentum.
As they gear up for a challenging road test against the top-five Texas Longhorns, the matchup might not have the same buzz as before. Still, the Gators are confident they can pull off the upset. Are you buying into their optimism? Check out our Florida vs. Texas prediction to see how we think this showdown will unfold.
Florida vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Florida vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -26 - Spread
Texas -21.5 - Moneyline
Texas -2100, Florida +1100 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, noon ET - Location
Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This game really had some juice before Lagway’s injury midway through the second quarter of Florida’s Week 10 game against Georgia. The Gators were leading the Bulldogs and Lagway looked very comfortable. I had even grabbed the Gators +17.5 for this game last week, but with Lagway hurt and likely out, the line is much wider.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Texas opens the week as a near 22-point favorite, as Vegas expects backup Aidan Warner to start for the Gators. The over-under of 47.5 paints a grim picture of Florida’s chances on offense, as the spread and total imply a score close to 34-13 in favor of the Longhorns.
Florida’s Winning Probability
Florida dropped further in CFN’s Football Playoff Meter than any team in a single week all season, and the outlook is grim. With just a 3.3% chance to win on Saturday, Texas represents the Gators’ hardest remaining game. The Gators are favored slightly in the finale over a bad Florida State team, but there’s not much hope elsewhere on the schedule.
- at Texas: 3.3%
- vs. LSU: 11%
- vs. Ole Miss: 11%
- at Florida State: 55.6%
Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas has a 96.7% chance of beating the Gators at home. Despite a loss to Georgia, the Longhorns are expected to reach the SEC Championship Game and have the second-best odds to win the conference, per FPM.
- vs. Florida: 96.7%
- at Arkansas: 81.2%
- vs. Kentucky: 93.6%
- at Texas A&M: 55.6%
Prediction for Florida vs. Texas
I was finally starting to come around on Florida after spending much of the season doubting the Gators. I even called their strong performance against Georgia last week and jumped early on Florida to cover against Texas. For a moment, it felt like things were finally trending up.
Then DJ Lagway went down, and the season’s outlook took a steep nosedive. Even if they somehow upset Florida State to close the year, they still need another win to secure bowl eligibility—and honestly, I don’t see it happening. Without Lagway, Warner and the offense looked completely out of sync.
The stats tell the story: just 113 yards of offense after Lagway’s injury, most of it coming in garbage time. Warner struggled to find any rhythm, and it showed on every drive.
On defense, Florida just isn’t built to carry the load, especially with a brutal schedule looming. That starts with Texas—a team eyeing a potential season-ending showdown with Texas A&M.
Quinn Ewers brings a different dynamic to the table. He has the arm to stretch Florida’s secondary in ways Carson Beck didn’t, and he’s far less prone to the mistakes that bailed out the Gators’ defense last week.
But the real problem? Texas can completely stifle Florida’s offense. The Gators might hang around early, but sustaining drives against this Longhorns squad feels like a tall order. Expect Texas to pull away as the game progresses.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
As much as I respect Florida’s grit—especially against a Georgia team that handled Texas earlier this season—the road ahead without Lagway looks grim. Sure, the transitive property doesn’t mean much in college football, but maybe the Gators keep it closer than expected.
That said, I’d bet on points being hard to come by. Take the under.
Prediction: Texas 29, Florida 10
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.