The Florida Gators are navigating their challenging schedule and have been performing admirably. However, a potentially significant injury to quarterback DJ Lagway has dampened some of their momentum.
Their upcoming road matchup against the top-five Texas Longhorns may have lost some of its shine, but the Gators still believe they have what it takes to pull off the upset. Do we share their optimism? Discover where our predictions lean in this Florida vs. Texas showdown.
Florida vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Florida vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -26 - Spread
Texas -21.5 - Moneyline
Texas -1800, Florida +1000 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, noon ET - Location
Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This game really had some juice before Lagway’s injury midway through the second quarter of Florida’s Week 10 game against Georgia. The Gators were leading the Bulldogs and Lagway looked very comfortable. I had even grabbed the Gators +17.5 for this game last week, but with Lagway hurt and likely out, the line is much wider.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Texas opens the week as a 22-point favorite, as Vegas expects backup Aidan Warner to start for the Gators. The over-under of 47.5 paints a grim picture of Florida’s chances on offense, as the spread and total imply a score close to 34-13 in favor of the Longhorns.
Florida’s Winning Probability
Florida dropped further in CFN’s Football Playoff Meter than any team in a single week all season, and the outlook is grim. With just a 3.3% chance to win on Saturday, Texas represents the Gators’ hardest remaining game. The Gators are favored slightly in the finale over a bad Florida State team, but there’s not much hope elsewhere on the schedule.
- at Texas: 3.3%
- vs. LSU: 11%
- vs. Ole Miss: 11%
- at Florida State: 55.6%
Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas has a 96.7% chance of beating the Gators at home. Despite a loss to Georgia, the Longhorns are expected to reach the SEC Championship Game and have the second-best odds to win the conference, per FPM.
- vs. Florida: 96.7%
- at Arkansas: 81.2%
- vs. Kentucky: 93.6%
- at Texas A&M: 55.6%
Prediction for Florida vs. Texas
I had just started to come around on Florida after being down on the Gators most of the season. I nailed it when I picked them to give Georgia a run for their money last week and even jumped on an early line for Florida to cover against Texas this week.
But now, without Lagway, the outlook for the rest of the season is bleak. Even if they manage to beat in-state rival Florida State at the end of the year, they’ll still need to steal another win to be bowl-eligible. Honestly, I just don’t see it happening; Warner and the offense looked lost after Lagway’s injury.
After Lagway went down, the Gators mustered only 113 yards of offense, most of which came in garbage time. Warner looked uncomfortable from start to finish.
Defensively, Florida just isn’t strong enough to carry the team, especially against the tough opponents they’ll face down the stretch.
First up is Texas, a team with its eyes on the prize as they prepare for a potential showdown with Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. Quinn Ewers has the downfield arm to put serious pressure on Florida’s secondary, and unlike Carson Beck on Saturday, he’s less likely to make those back-breaking mistakes that bail out a defense.
The Longhorns have the ability to completely stymie the Gator offense—that’s where the problem lies. Florida might hang around early, but Texas is bound to pull away as the Gators struggle to sustain drives.
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Without Lagway, my hopes for the Gators are slim, but they did show grit against a Georgia team that dominated Texas earlier this season. I don’t put much stock in the transitive property in college football, but maybe they’ll keep it interesting.
That said, points will be hard to come by, so take the under.
Prediction: Texas 29, Florida 10
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