In the 12-team playoff era, all Power Four teams get a mulligan.
That’s great news for Tennessee, as the Volunteers really struggled in Fayetteville, Ark., last weekend. It’s probably not great news for the Florida Gators, who enter the teeth of their schedule by facing a ticked-off Tennessee team on the road. Can the Gators keep it close, or will the Volunteers take out their anger on Billy Napier’s squad?
Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Florida vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -16 - Spread
Tennessee -15.5 - Moneyline
Tennessee -675, Florida +490 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Las Vegas are aligned on this one, both favoring the Volunteers by around 16 points. With a spread of 15.5 points and a total of 54, Vegas implies the score will be close to 35-19, Tennessee.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There hasn’t been a lot of line movement here. Some books opened at 16 points and that has ticked down. FanDuel currently has this at 14.5 in favor of the Volunteers. The total remains between 54 and 54.5 everywhere I’ve looked.
Florida’s Winning Probability
Florida has an 11.4% chance to win on Saturday. Unfortunately, this is where the gauntlet begins for the Gators, as they won’t be favored again until the finale against a reeling Florida State.
- at Tennessee: 11.4%
- vs. Kentucky: 36.4%
- vs. Georgia: 11.4%
- at Texas: 5.2%
- vs. LSU: 19.4%
- vs. Ole Miss: 19.8%
- at Florida State: 67.7%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
FPM has the Volunteers as 16-point underdogs, giving them a win probability of 88.6%. They benefit from several home games, though an Oct. 19 game against Alabama looms large.
- vs. Florida: 88.6%
- vs. Alabama: 36.4%
- vs. Kentucky: 80.2%
- vs. Mississippi State: 93.5%
- at Georgia: 35.4%
- vs. UTEP: 99.7%
- vs. Vanderbilt:82.8%
Prediction for Florida vs. Tennessee
If you’d asked me last week, I’d have considered this a potential look-ahead spot for the Volunteers ahead of a huge matchup with Alabama. However, after losing to Arkansas Tennessee cannot afford to overlook anyone else. Plus, it’s likely that the Volunteers are pretty upset about the lack of offensive production last week.
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Nico Iamaleava made some mistakes last week that you’d expect from a redshirt freshman, but he’s still talented, and the running game is still one of the better attacks in the country, even if they didn’t show it last week.
However, it’s the defense that should likely find a faster return to form.
Florida has found success picking on weaker defensive units but struggled against Miami and Texas A&M. The Volunteers have a better defense than either and should show it Saturday.
Simply put, I think Florida is propped up by wins against two of the worst Power Four teams in their respective conferences and could come down to earth.
There’s a possibility here that Tennessee’s offense just isn’t very good, and that could complicate things. But I think Florida’s defensive issues still remain, and I trust Josh Heupel to improve the young offensive unit.
I don’t see much value in the total (forced to pick a side, I’ll lean the under). However, I think an angry Tennessee team rolls at home.
Prediction: Tennessee 41, Florida 13
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