Neither team comes in with the record they hoped for in Week 4, as both SEC programs are 1-2 overall. But one of them is walking away with a 1-0 record in SEC play after Saturday.
Mississippi State comes in off of back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 41-17 home loss to Toledo as 10.5-point favorites.
Things are somehow worse at Florida, as rumors swirl that Billy Napier is on his way out and Florida will begin the search for a new head coach. For now, Napier is still in charge and has his sights set on his first SEC victory of 2024.
Florida vs. Mississippi State Betting and DFS Preview
All Florida vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 16.
- Spread
Florida -5.5 - Moneyline
Florida -210, Mississippi State +170 - Over/Under
58
- Game time
Noon ET
- Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, MS
- Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, partly cloudy
- How to Watch
ESPN
Florida opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and that number has since moved to 5.5. That number could certainly continue to creep higher before kickoff. The total has seen slightly more movement, opening at 56.5 and now sitting at 58.
With a rich tradition and proud fanbase, these two programs have been terrible against the spread in 2024. They enter this matchup a combined 1-5 against the spread this season. The Over is a combined 4-2 in their six total matchups in 2024.
Top DFS and Fantasy Plays
- QB Graham Mertz, Florida
- QB Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
- RB Montrell Johnson, Florida
- RB Keyvone Lee, Mississippi State
- RB Davon Booth, Mississippi State
- RB Johnnie Daniels, Mississippi State
- WR Eugene Wilson, Florida
- WR Kevin Coleman, Mississippi
- WR Elijhah Badger, Florida
- WR Jordan Mosley, Mississippi State
Nothing jumps off the page as an obvious DFS play when watching these two teams.
Mississippi State rotates running backs, Johnnie Daniels, Davon Booth, and Keyvone Lee all have at least 18 carries on the year. Lee and Booth have gotten into the end zone, but Daniels leads the trio in yards per carry with 4.5. Rolling with any of them as a DFS play feels like a coin flip at best.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If you’re looking to roster a Bulldog to get into the end zone, it has to be Kevin Coleman. He leads Mississippi State with three touchdown catches so far in 2024.
Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen has some solid numbers. He’s thrown for 834 yards and seven touchdowns with just one turnover through the air. Still, it’s hard to argue that he’s a solid DFS option in this one.
For the Gators, Montrell Johnson leads them in touchdowns with three and averages 5.0 yards per rush. He may see a lot of action on Saturday.
Prediction for Florida vs. Mississippi State
When you watch both of these teams, it’s tough to find many highlights. Still, Florida definitely has talent all over the field on both sides of the ball. It’s tough to explain why things have been this bad for them in 2024.
The loss to Miami was terrible, but Miami may be the best team in the ACC and could very well earn a berth into the 12-team college football playoff. It still doesn’t excuse how poorly Florida looked, but it’s a bad loss to a good team.
What was more shocking was that Florida fell behind 20-0 at home to Texas A&M this past weekend, despite the Aggies being led by their backup freshman quarterback, Marcel Reed. Florida looked utterly lost on both sides of the ball in the first half. The fact that the Gators outscored them, 20-13, in the second half is a bit of a moral victory but sad for a program of this caliber.
And with all of that said, I still like Florida on the road at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs just don’t have it. Getting blasted by Toledo, 41-17, at home as 10.5-point favorites while surrendering 454 yards of total offense is hopefully a low for this 2024 Bulldogs squad.
It’s tough to back anyone in this one, but there is no way to get behind this Mississippi State team right now.
The Prediction: Florida 31, Mississippi State 20
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