There was some uncertainty about whether the artist formerly known as “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” would continue in its traditional Jacksonville, Fla., location. Rest assured, as the 2024 version of Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs is once again being played at the home of the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars.
It’s the beginning of the Gators’ murderer’s-row schedule but the type of weird rivalry that could go either way. Find out which team we think emerges victorious in this Florida vs. Georgia prediction.
Florida vs. Georgia Betting Preview
All Florida vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -21 - Spread
Georgia -17 - Moneyline
Georgia -800, Florida +550 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 2, 3:30 ET - Location
TIAA Bank Stadium | Jacksonville, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
79 degrees, partly cloudy, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
In its traditional location and time, Florida vs. Georgia has predictably huge implications. The Florida Gators are doing better than many expected, but due to their end-of-year schedule, they’ll still need to pull off an upset just to make a bowl.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Georgia is a heavy favorite, but these teams often play close games, even when the spread is wide. With a spread of 17 points and a total of 52.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 35-18, in favor of the Bulldogs.
Florida’s Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Florida might be a decent team but should struggle down the stretch. FPM gives Florida an 11.9% chance to win Saturday, translating to an implied spread of 21 points. The Gators will be heavy underdogs in four of their remaining five games and will need at least one upset to get to bowl eligibility.
Here are their winning probabilities for the remainder of the season:
- at Texas: 7.9%
- vs. LSU: 25.1%
- vs. Ole Miss: 28.4%
- at Florida State: 73.0%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Georgia has an 88.1% chance of overcoming the Gators. The Bulldogs will be heavy favorites in most of their remaining games, with two games in which FPM has the Bulldogs as single-digit favorites.
Here are their winning probabilities for the remainder of the season:
- at Ole Miss: 66.4%
- vs. Tennessee: 68.8%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 93.4%
Prediction for Florida vs. Georgia
I’m learning this year that just because we have low preseason expectations for a team due to a difficult schedule doesn’t mean that the team is a bad team.
The media put Billy Napier on the hot seat after a loss to a Miami Hurricanes team that has since proven to be a College Football Playoff contender, losing only to Tennessee and Texas A&M since, both teams in the top 10.
Now, the Gators have a gauntlet of Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss. It’s brutal, but it doesn’t mean the Gators aren’t a good team.
In fact, they’ve played as well as any team in the country during their best games.
So, I’m not ready to declare Georgia the winner in a blowout. In fact, I think the Gators keep this close.
Quarterback DJ Lagway’s all-or-nothing approach is intriguing against a Georgia defense that has occasionally struggled with deep throws. He averaged over 25 yards an attempt against Kentucky and exhibited a willingness to throw deep in any down and distance.
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Georgia’s front seven will likely cause some havoc and force a few turnovers, but the Georgia offense, especially Carson Beck, hasn’t been immune to turnovers either.
Ultimately, Georgia should overcome any potential momentum swings and control this late, but 17 is a big number; I think the Gators can cover. In a typically chaotic game, take the over.
Prediction: Georgia 38, Florida 29
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