Florida vs. Texas Prediction: With or Without DJ Lagway, Florida’s Got An Uphill Climb

    Our Florida vs. Texas prediction dives into a matchup that’s lost some of its shine with the Gators potentially sidelined by QB DJ Lagway’s hamstring injury.

    The Florida Gators have been holding their own against a tough schedule, showing resilience and determination. However, an injury to quarterback DJ Lagway has cast a shadow over their recent progress.

    Their upcoming road test against the top-five Texas Longhorns might not carry the same spark as before, but the Gators remain confident in their ability to deliver an upset. Are we buying into their optimism? Dive into our Florida vs. Texas prediction to see how we see this clash playing out.

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    Florida vs. Texas Betting Preview

    All Florida vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Texas -26
    • Spread
      Texas -21.5
    • Moneyline
      Texas -1800, Florida +1000
    • Over/Under
      47.5 points
    • Game Time
      Nov. 9, noon ET
    • Location
      Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, Texas
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      72 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      ABC

    This game really had some juice before Lagway’s injury midway through the second quarter of Florida’s Week 10 game against Georgia. The Gators were leading the Bulldogs and Lagway looked very comfortable. I had even grabbed the Gators +17.5 for this game last week, but with Lagway hurt and likely out, the line is much wider.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    Texas opens the week as a near 22-point favorite, as Vegas expects backup Aidan Warner to start for the Gators. The over-under of 47.5 paints a grim picture of Florida’s chances on offense, as the spread and total imply a score close to 34-13 in favor of the Longhorns.

    Florida’s Winning Probability

    Florida dropped further in CFN’s Football Playoff Meter than any team in a single week all season, and the outlook is grim. With just a 3.3% chance to win on Saturday, Texas represents the Gators’ hardest remaining game. The Gators are favored slightly in the finale over a bad Florida State team, but there’s not much hope elsewhere on the schedule.

    • at Texas: 3.3%
    • vs. LSU: 11%
    • vs. Ole Miss: 11%
    • at Florida State: 55.6%

    Texas’ Winning Probability

    Conversely, Texas has a 96.7% chance of beating the Gators at home. Despite a loss to Georgia, the Longhorns are expected to reach the SEC Championship Game and have the second-best odds to win the conference, per FPM.

    • vs. Florida: 96.7%
    • at Arkansas: 81.2%
    • vs. Kentucky: 93.6%
    • at Texas A&M: 55.6%

    Prediction for Florida vs. Texas

    I was finally starting to come around on Florida after spending most of the season down on the Gators. I even called their strong showing against Georgia last week and jumped early on Florida to cover against Texas. Things were finally looking up.

    But with DJ Lagway out, the outlook for the season has taken a nosedive. Even if they manage to beat Florida State at the end of the year, they still need another win to reach bowl eligibility. Honestly, I don’t see it happening. After Lagway’s injury, Warner and the offense looked completely lost.

    The numbers back it up: just 113 yards of offense after Lagway went down, most of that coming in garbage time. Warner never looked comfortable, and it showed.

    Defensively, Florida isn’t built to carry the team, especially with the tough slate ahead. That starts with Texas—a team locked in on a potential regular-season finale showdown with Texas A&M.

    Quinn Ewers has the arm to test Florida’s secondary in ways that Carson Beck didn’t, and he’s far less likely to make the mistakes that bailed out Florida’s defense last week.

    The bigger issue? Texas can completely neutralize the Gators’ offense. Florida might keep it close early, but sustaining drives against this Longhorns team feels like a tall order. Texas should pull away as the game goes on.

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    As much as I admire Florida’s grit—especially against a Georgia team that handled Texas earlier this season—the road ahead looks bleak without Lagway. Sure, the transitive property doesn’t mean much in college football, but maybe the Gators will keep it closer than expected.

    That said, I’d bank on points being hard to come by. Take the under.

    Prediction: Texas 29, Florida 10

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