The Florida State Seminoles may have the all-time edge over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but they’re riding a three-game losing streak in the series. As one of the nation’s struggling Power Five programs this season, can they pull off the unthinkable and break the streak in Week 11?
Our Florida State vs. Notre Dame preview dives into the matchup, delivering key betting insights to help you make the smartest picks.
Florida State vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Florida State vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -24 - Spread
Notre Dame -26 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -6500, Florida State +200 - Over/Under
42.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9 - Location
Notre Dame Stadium | Notre Dame, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, 10 mph winds, showers - How To Watch
NBC
The betting trends agree with the sentiment that the 1-8 Seminoles are a horrid football team in 2024:
- They are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone under in eight of their last nine.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have won six straight since inexplicably losing to the Northern Illinois Huskies in Week 2. And just like FSU, the betting trends paint a positive picture:
- They are 5-1 ATS in their previous six contests.
- The total has gone over in 10 of their last 14.
Florida State’s Winning Probability
The Seminoles are playing for pride at this point, but is that enough to limp their way to another win or two down the stretch? Week 10’s matchup is a near-guaranteed loss, and the FPM doesn’t even see Week 11’s matchup with FCS-level Charleston Southern as a sure bet.
- at Notre Dame: 4.4%
- vs. Charleston Southern: 87.2%
- vs. Florida: 44.4%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
The Fighting Irish see their win probabilities decrease in each of their final four games, but none dip under 65%. It’s a testament to their roster configuration as well as an indictment of the teams remaining on their schedule.
- vs. Florida State: 95.6%
- vs. Virginia: 88.6%
- vs. Army: 79.6%
- at USC: 67.7%
Prediction for Florida State vs. Notre Dame
No point in sugarcoating it—Notre Dame’s set to crush Florida State in Week 10. The real question is, by how much?
The Seminoles are riding a five-game losing streak and are winless on the road this season (0-4). Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish come off a bye, heading into their sixth game of an eight-game home stand.
There’s no need for deep analytics here. FSU has managed to score over 20 points just once this season (21 in Week 1 vs. Georgia Tech), while ND has allowed over 20 points only once (24 in Week 5 vs. Louisville).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Even with star CB Benjamin Morrison sidelined by injury, the Fighting Irish defense should have no trouble locking down Seminoles QBs Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek, who together have a completion rate of 42.8% with just 4.8 yards per attempt.
Another week, another loss (straight up and ATS). Take Notre Dame to win, cover, and score enough to clear the low total.
Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Florida State 10
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