With the conclusion of Week 1 of the college football season, the Florida State Seminoles have landed out of the Associated Press Poll for Week 2 after beginning the year ranked 10th in the preseason version.
Florida State Tumbles Out of AP Top 25
The Seminoles’ ranking plummeted after back-to-back losses, one on the road in Dublin in Week 0 to Georgia Tech and Monday night’s debacle against Boston College.
Florida State was expected to contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff but now must scramble to even compete for a conference championship after two straight losses to conference opponents in the opening weeks.
More concerning might be the Seminoles’ performance, as a vaunted defensive front has allowed 453 yards on the ground in just those two games. Both Georgia Tech and Boston College averaged over five yards per rush against a defensive line that was expected to be one of the best in the country.
To make matters worse, the Seminoles have been downright bad on offense, going from an average of 55.5 points per game in the first two contests of 2023 to a paltry 17.0 points per contest. Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has struggled mightily to be kind, not hitting receivers in rhythm and failing to get the offense into the end zone.
It hasn’t been all Uiagalelei, however. Even when he managed to find receivers on target, a plethora of drops plagued the group on Monday night against Georgia Tech.
Florida State’s rushing attack has failed to break the 100-yard mark in either contest, and touted senior running backs Roydell Williams and Lawrance Toafili have struggled to advance the football with the same kind of consistency as last year.
The 2.53 yards per carry is almost half of what FSU was able to generate in the run game in all of 2023.
Can the Seminoles Still Make the College Football Playoff?
After losing two conference games to start the year, Florida State’s window to reaching the College Football Playoff has essentially shrunk to the smallest possible size, considering all the possible outcomes to start the season.
It’s not as if the Seminoles looked like a team worthy of making the playoff, either. Miscues and sloppy play have consistently plagued the squad in both contests.
A trip overseas to Dublin may give some members of the selection committee a reason for grace. However, a home contest loss on a Monday night in Tallahassee to a Boston College team with a new head coach taking over a program that went 7-6 the year previous may erase any goodwill the committee may have considered showing.
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All of that is on top of the simple fact that FSU is now completely up against the wall if they want to win their conference. Miami and Notre Dame looked impressive in victories over the weekend, and while Clemson and Florida didn’t look as good, those are still talented opponents on a schedule that now looks daunting, given that the Seminoles will essentially have to win out.
Florida State’s Game-By-Game Win Probabilities
With the losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College, the Seminoles’ win probabilities get even more daunting. Our predictions at College Football Network for the rest of the season go as follows.
Projected FSU Win-Loss Predictions
Florida State (-16) vs. Memphis (Projection: W)
Florida State (-15) vs. California (Projection: W)
Florida State (-5) @ SMU (Projection: W)
Florida State (-6) vs. Clemson (Projection: W)
Florida State (-10.5) @ Duke (Projection: W)
Florida State (1) @ Miami (FL) (Projection: L)
Florida State (-11) vs. North Carolina (Projection: W)
Florida State (6) @ Notre Dame (Projection: L)
Florida State (-34) vs. Charleston Southern (Projection: W)
Florida State (-9) vs. Florida (Projection: W)
If our projections come true, with two more losses, the Seminoles would go from darlings of the college football world in 2023 to being left out of both the conference title and a College Football Playoff berth.
Given the early returns on how things looked so far, it may be a best-case scenario.
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