Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Florida State Seminoles have plummeted from a popular playoff contender to an FBS bottom-dweller in just a few weeks, and their remaining schedule offers little relief.
Following a dismal performance in one of the most forgettable games I’ve witnessed, the Seminoles now face a tough challenge, traveling to take on the undefeated Miami Hurricanes. Can they manage to keep it competitive? Here’s our take on the Florida State vs. Miami matchup.
Florida State vs. Miami Betting Preview
All Florida State vs. Miami odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -22.5 - Spread
Miami -21 - Moneyline
Miami -1350, Florida State +800 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami - Predicted Weather at Kick
79 degrees, cloudy, 14 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread is Miami -20.5, as the Seminoles have been a mess. The undefeated Hurricanes have squeaked by a few conference foes, but Florida State has really struggled; with a total of 55 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 38-17 in favor of Miami.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Florida State’s Winning Probability
The Seminoles have just a 5.2% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 20.5 points. The Seminoles have three extremely difficult games, a true toss-up, and an FCS snoozer remaining on the schedule.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Miami (FL): 5.2%
- vs. North Carolina: 50.0%
- at Notre Dame: 6.1%
- vs. Charleston Southern: 91.3%
- vs. Florida: 29.7%
Miami’s Winning Probability
FPM favors Miami in this one, as the metric has them as 22.5-point favorites. The Hurricanes have a 94.8% chance to win the game. The Hurricanes will be heavy favorites in every remaining game and have close to a 40% chance to finish the year undefeated.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Florida State: 94.8%
- vs. Duke: 85.9%
- at Georgia Tech: 70.3%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.6%
- at Syracuse: 75.3%
Prediction for Florida State vs. Miami
This preview practically writes itself—there’s no need for stats, metrics, or deep analysis here.
Florida State has been a disaster. Even with Miami’s shaky defense, the Seminoles simply don’t have the offensive capability to move the ball or show any semblance of competence. Normally, I’d be cautious about large spreads, especially for a team like Miami, which has been in so many close games this season.
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But this time, it’s different. Vegas often struggles to adjust to the worst teams, making the spreads not nearly large enough. If it’s under three touchdowns, take the Hurricanes.
This isn’t a trap game—Miami will be eager to humiliate their rivals and potentially deliver a blow that could impact Florida State’s recruiting efforts.
Cam Ward is in the Heisman race, and while Florida State’s defensive front is better than some of their other units, he should still have time to find open receivers downfield.
Yes, it sounds cynical, but it’s warranted. There’s no way to sugarcoat how terrible Florida State has been this season. With the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff on the line, Miami can’t afford a slip-up, and I don’t expect another close contest—Florida State’s offense just doesn’t have the firepower to challenge good teams.
It would take about four Cam Ward pick-sixes to keep this competitive, as the Seminoles haven’t managed 20 points on offense since their opener in Ireland.
Miami might ease up before they run up the score … but only just.
Prediction: Miami 41, Florida State 9
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