Neither Florida nor Mississippi State enter Week 4 with the record they envisioned, as both SEC programs sit at 1-2. The Bulldogs have lost back-to-back games, including a shocking 41-17 defeat to Toledo as 10.5-point favorites.
Things are even bleaker at Florida, where rumors swirl about Billy Napier’s future. Despite the noise, Napier remains focused on securing his first SEC win of 2024 in our Florida vs. Mississippi State prediction.
Florida vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Florida vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, September 21, 2024.
- Spread
Florida -6.5 - Moneyline
Florida -245 Mississippi State +200 - Over/Under
58 - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, MS - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, partly cloudy - How to Watch
ESPN
Florida opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and that number has since moved to 6.5. The total has seen slightly more movement, opening at 56.5 and now sitting at 58.
Despite their rich tradition and proud fanbases, these two programs have been terrible against the spread in 2024. They enter this matchup a combined 1-5 against the spread this season. The over is a combined 4-2 in their six total matchups in 2024.
Prediction for Florida vs. Mississippi State
When you watch both of these teams, it’s tough to find many highlights. Still, Florida definitely has talent all over the field on both sides of the ball. It’s tough to explain why things have been this bad for them in 2024.
The loss to Miami was terrible, but Miami may be the best team in the ACC and could very well earn a berth into the 12-team college football playoff. It still doesn’t excuse how poorly Florida looked, but it’s a bad loss to a good team.
What was more shocking was that Florida fell behind 20-0 at home to Texas A&M this past weekend, despite the Aggies being led by their backup freshman quarterback, Marcel Reed. Florida looked utterly lost on both sides of the ball in the first half. The fact that the Gators outscored them, 20-13, in the second half is a bit of a moral victory but sad for a program of this caliber.
And with all of that said, I still like Florida on the road at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs just don’t have it. Getting blasted by Toledo, 41-17, at home as 10.5-point favorites while surrendering 454 yards of total offense is hopefully a low for this 2024 Bulldogs squad.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
It’s tough to back anyone in this one, but there is no way to get behind this Mississippi State team right now.
The Prediction: Florida 31, Mississippi State 20
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