After Week 2, it looked like the Colorado Buffaloes and Texas Tech Red Raiders were out of the running. But fast forward, and both teams have clawed their way back into the mix, each with a legitimate outside shot at the Big 12 Championship Game.
The jokes about Colorado are stale now—they just keep winning. Meanwhile, Texas Tech seems to have finally patched up their defense enough to give their high-powered offense the support it needs. So, who keeps rolling, and who stumbles? Here’s our breakdown of the Colorado vs. Texas Tech matchup.
Colorado vs. Texas Tech Betting Preview
All Colorado vs. Texas Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas Tech -2.5 - Spread
Colorado -4 - Moneyline
Colorado -185, Texas Tech +154 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, sunny, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
This is an intriguing matchup and line. The Buffaloes are three-point road favorites as they come off a bye week. Texas Tech has been somewhat unpredictable this season, but Vegas’ metrics have slated the Red Raiders as underdogs.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 62.5 points and the spread so close, Vegas expects a tightly contested, high-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 33-30 in favor of the Buffaloes.
Colorado’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Buffaloes have the second-best odds to win the conference. That doesn’t mean they don’t have some difficult games down the stretch, highlighted by this one in which the metric has them as underdogs. Colorado has a 45.7% chance to win Saturday per FPM, its hardest remaining game of the year.
- at Texas Tech: 45.7%
- vs. Utah: 65.7%
- at Kansas: 65.1%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas Tech has a 54.3% chance of beating the Buffaloes at home, which translates to a spread of around 2.5 points. FPM still thinks the Red Raiders have at least a chance at the Big 12 title, but a loss to Colorado would end that dream.
- vs. Colorado: 54.3%
- at Oklahoma State: 64.1%
- vs. West Virginia: 63.1%
Prediction for Colorado vs. Texas Tech
There are times I’m not exactly thrilled about making a game pick. Normally, I have a clear lean, but this one has me going back and forth.
I expect a wildly entertaining game, but I’m genuinely torn on which team to back.
Shedeur Sanders may grab most of the headlines, but Texas Tech’s Behren Morton has been quietly impressive this season with 19 touchdowns and just five picks—and he’s not even the focal point of their offense.
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That spotlight goes to running back Tahj Brooks, who’s been one of the top backs in the country, even while pushing through some minor injuries. Now back to full health, he’s rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season.
Still, even with Texas Tech’s defense showing improvement lately, I’m not sure they’ll be able to pressure Sanders. When he’s had time—and a healthy receiving corps—he’s been close to unstoppable.
The big question here is whether the run game can give the offense just enough balance.
Both teams should light up the scoreboard in classic Big 12 shootout style, but I think each defense will find a moment to create some chaos and snag a turnover. The team that keeps it cleanest down the stretch probably comes out on top.
I’m leaning more toward the over than picking a side, but with FPM in mind, I’ll give a slight edge to the Red Raiders in a close, thrilling matchup.
Prediction: Texas Tech 41, Colorado 38
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