After Week 2, it seemed like the Colorado Buffaloes and Texas Tech Red Raiders were already out of the picture. But here we are, and both teams have fought their way back into contention, each with a real outside shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game.
The jokes about Colorado? They’re played out—this team just keeps finding ways to win. Meanwhile, Texas Tech appears to have shored up their defense just enough to complement their explosive offense. So, who stays hot, and who trips up? Let’s dive into our breakdown of the Colorado vs. Texas Tech showdown.
Colorado vs. Texas Tech Betting Preview
All Colorado vs. Texas Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas Tech -2.5 - Spread
Colorado -4.5 - Moneyline
Colorado -198, Texas Tech +164 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, sunny, 13 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
This is an intriguing matchup and line. The Buffaloes are three-point road favorites as they come off a bye week. Texas Tech has been somewhat unpredictable this season, but Vegas’ metrics have slated the Red Raiders as underdogs.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 62.5 points and the spread so close, Vegas expects a tightly contested, high-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 33-30 in favor of the Buffaloes.
Colorado’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Buffaloes have the second-best odds to win the conference. That doesn’t mean they don’t have some difficult games down the stretch, highlighted by this one in which the metric has them as underdogs. Colorado has a 45.7% chance to win Saturday per FPM, its hardest remaining game of the year.
- at Texas Tech: 45.7%
- vs. Utah: 65.7%
- at Kansas: 65.1%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas Tech has a 54.3% chance of beating the Buffaloes at home, which translates to a spread of around 2.5 points. FPM still thinks the Red Raiders have at least a chance at the Big 12 title, but a loss to Colorado would end that dream.
- vs. Colorado: 54.3%
- at Oklahoma State: 64.1%
- vs. West Virginia: 63.1%
Prediction for Colorado vs. Texas Tech
Sometimes, picking a game feels more like a chore than a thrill. Usually, I have a clear lean, but this one has me waffling back and forth.
I’m expecting a wildly entertaining showdown, but I’m genuinely stuck on which side to back.
Shedeur Sanders tends to dominate the headlines, but Texas Tech’s Behren Morton has quietly put together an impressive season—19 touchdowns and only five interceptions—and he’s not even the centerpiece of their offense.
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That honor belongs to running back Tahj Brooks, one of the top backs in the nation. Even while battling minor injuries, he’s been a force. Now fully healthy, Brooks has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in every game this season.
Still, as improved as Texas Tech’s defense has looked lately, I’m not convinced they can generate enough pressure on Sanders. When he has time to throw—and his receiving corps is healthy—he’s been nearly unstoppable.
The key question is whether the run game can provide enough balance to keep the offense rolling.
Both teams are likely to light up the scoreboard in true Big 12 shootout fashion, but I think we’ll see at least one moment where each defense creates some chaos and forces a turnover. In a game this tight, the team that protects the ball better down the stretch probably walks away with the win.
I’m leaning more toward the over than taking a side, but factoring in FPM, I’ll give a slight edge to the Red Raiders in a close and thrilling matchup.
Prediction: Texas Tech 41, Colorado 38
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