The college football season is short. But the college football offseason is long. All the hours put into preseason projections are thrown out the window when Week 0 finally comes, but the barometer of how to judge a team still exists within your preseason projections.
How has each team fared in 2024 in terms of exceeding expectations and earning wins over projection?
Exceeding Expectations In Wins Over Projection
In order to find this out, we took a look at our College Football Strength of Schedule. We encapsulated our S.O.S. metric and combined the preseason projections with our current, up-to-date projections based on real results from the 2024 season and the rest of the season rankings we have for all 134 teams.
In doing so, we saw which teams have far exceeded expectations, as ranked by their total wins over their preseason projections. The numbers below take into account our total win projections for each team, subtracting their preseason win projection and generating our figure here.
1) BYU
Wins Over Projection: 6.4
The BYU Cougars were projected to have what felt like a rebuilding year in Year 2 in the Big 12. They were projected a win-loss record of 4.7-7.3, but they’ve already surpassed that in real victories (7-0) and now have a projected win-loss total of 11.1-0.9.
Their 6.4 wins over projection is a full 2.3 wins more than any other team in the country.
2) Indiana
Wins Over Projection: 4.1
The Indiana Hoosiers are a full four wins over projection so far in 2024, reaching that total on the back of a 7-0 start under Curt Cignetti. Despite the loss of QB Kurtis Rourke, the Hoosiers are still favorites in all but one game from here on out.
This comes after they were projected a preseason record of 6.5-5.5, but now have a projected win-loss record of 10.6-1.4.
3) UL-Monroe
Wins Over Projection: 3.9
The UL-Monroe WarHawks obtained one of the biggest victories of the season when they knocked off James Madison earlier this year. However, now that the dust has settled, that shouldn’t have come as much of a shock.
Considering the fact that they’ve won five games when they were projected just 3.8 wins this season is all you have to know. They currently have a win-loss projection of 7.7-4.3, compared to their preseason expectation of 3.9-8.1.
4) Army
Wins Over Projection: 3.5
The Army Black Knights have been on a tear in 2024. They’re now knocking on the door as a potential Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff as they’ve started the season a perfect 6-0. They’re set to be favorites in all but one game the rest of the season and are projected a win loss record at 10-2.
This is a far cry from their preseason projection of 6-5-5.5.
5) Arizona State
Wins Over Projection: 3.4
Talk about exceeding expectations, the Arizona State Sun Devils have done so in each week so far this season, even in respectable losses to start the year. ASU was projected a preseason win-loss record of 3.7-8.3, putting them in the bottom of the Big 12 standings.
However, they’ve now moved that projection to 7.1-4.9.
6) Pittsburgh
Wins Over Projection: 3.4
The Pittsburgh Panthers were projected to have somewhere near a .500 record in 2024. The CFN win-loss projection was 5.7-6.3, but it’s clear to say that was exceeded this year on the backs of the Panthers’ 6-0 start.
Even though they should be underdogs in at least two of their remaining six games, they’ve already surpassed that preseason projection in total wins and have a new projected win-loss record of 9.1-2.9.
7) Navy
Wins Over Projection: 3.3
Just like Army, the Navy Midshipmen have started undefeated. Though both service academies play Notre Dame (a team they both are currently underdogs to), it’s still shaping up that they could potentially meet in the AAC Championship Game with potential College Football Playoff berth on the line.
Navy was projected a 5.8-6.2 record in 2024, but they’ve already won six games and now have a new projected record of 9.2-2.8.
8) Vanderbilt
Wins Over Projection: 3.2
Anytime you knock off a team like Alabama for the first time in decades, you’re going to see your projected wins skyrocket. That’s exactly what the Vanderbilt Commodores did in 2024, increasing their season win-loss record nearly a whole win by beating the Crimson Tide.
From a preseason projected record of 3.7-8.3 to a new projected record of 6.9-5.1 has the ‘Dores eyeing a bowl game.
9) Iowa State
Wins Over Projection: 3.1
We all knew that Matt Campbell was a good coach. Though he felt his seat getting a bit warmer as the season went along last year, he righted the ship and has impressed even the most stout Iowa State Cyclones fans.
ISU had a preseason projection of 7.3-4.7, but they’re sitting at 7-0 and are favorites in every game from here out. Their new win-loss projection sits at 10.5-1.5.
10) UNLV
Wins Over Projection: 3.0
The UNLV Rebels have been on a tear in the 2024 season, winning all but their lone game against Syracuse. A date with Boise State likely puts the winner in the driver’s seat for the G5 CFP appearance, but no matter how you slice it, the Rebels have exceeded expectations this year.
From a preseason win-loss projection of 6.9-5.1 to now, a projected record of 9.9-2.1 has the Rebels on the right path.
Take a look at every team’s wins over projection for those who have exceeded expectations below. The teams below are listed in list form, and they are only for teams who have improved their projected win-loss record this season.
11) Sam Houston
Wins Over Projection: 2.9
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.9-4.1
12) Washington State
Wins Over Projection: 2.9
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.1-1.9
13) Illinois
Wins Over Projection: 2.8
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.1-2.9
14) UMass
Wins Over Projection: 2.8
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 2.8-9.2
15) Texas A&M
Wins Over Projection: 2.8
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.6-2.4
16) Clemson
Wins Over Projection: 2.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.0-2.0
17) Louisiana
Wins Over Projection: 2.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.6-2.4
18) Georgia Southern
Wins Over Projection: 2.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.2-3.8
19) Duke
Wins Over Projection: 2.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.2-3.8
20) Memphis
Wins Over Projection: 1.9
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.9-2.1
21) Western Kentucky
Wins Over Projection: 1.9
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.6-3.4
22) Tulane
Wins Over Projection: 1.8
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.5-3.5
23) New Mexico
Wins Over Projection: 1.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
24) Buffalo
Wins Over Projection: 1.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.0-5.0
25) SMU
Wins Over Projection: 1.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.4-2.6
26) Boise State
Wins Over Projection: 1.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.8-2.2
27) Cincinnati
Wins Over Projection: 1.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.7-5.3
28) Kansas State
Wins Over Projection: 1.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.7-2.3
29) North Texas
Wins Over Projection: 1.4
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.2-4.8
30) UConn
Wins Over Projection: 1.4
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
31) San Jose State
Wins Over Projection: 1.4
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5
32) Eastern Michigan
Wins Over Projection: 1.4
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.5-4.5
33) ODU
Wins Over Projection: 1.3
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.6-7.4
34) Miami-FL
Wins Over Projection: 1.3
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 11.2-0.8
35) Oregon
Wins Over Projection: 1.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 11.5-0.5
36) Colorado
Wins Over Projection: 1.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.8-4.2
37) Western Michigan
Wins Over Projection: 1.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.0-5.0
38) Ohio
Wins Over Projection: 1.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.1-4.9
39) Toledo
Wins Over Projection: 1.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.0-4.0
40) Penn State
Wins Over Projection: 1.1
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 11.0-1.0
41) James Madison
Wins Over Projection: 1.1
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.0-3.0
42) Syracuse
Wins Over Projection: 1.0
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.1-3.9
43) Rutgers
Wins Over Projection: 1.0
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.9-5.1
44) Northern Illinois
Wins Over Projection: 1.0
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.1-4.9
45) Arkansas
Wins Over Projection: 1.0
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.4-5.6
46) Colorado State
Wins Over Projection: 1.0
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.9-5.1
47) Texas Tech
Wins Over Projection: 0.8
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.3-4.7
48) Michigan State
Wins Over Projection: 0.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9-6.1
49) Nebraska
Wins Over Projection: 0.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.4-4.6
50) Florida
Wins Over Projection: 0.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.4-6.6
51) Arkansas State
Wins Over Projection: 0.7
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
52) Tennessee
Wins Over Projection: 0.6
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.0-2.0
53) Minnesota
Wins Over Projection: 0.6
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9-6.1
54) Virginia
Wins Over Projection: 0.6
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.7-6.3
55) Marshall
Wins Over Projection: 0.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.6-5.4
56) South Carolina
Wins Over Projection: 0.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.2-5.8
57) Northwestern
Wins Over Projection: 0.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.1-7.9
58) Georgia
Wins Over Projection: 0.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.3-1.7
59) Fresno State
Wins Over Projection: 0.5
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.4-4.6
60) Coastal Carolina
Wins Over Projection: 0.4
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.4-5.6
61) LSU
Wins Over Projection: 0.4
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.5-2.5
62) Charlotte
Wins Over Projection: 0.3
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.8-7.2
63) Nevada
Wins Over Projection: 0.3
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.9-8.1
64) ECU
Wins Over Projection: 0.3
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.1-6.9
65) Wisconsin
Wins Over Projection: 0.3
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.9-5.1
66) Georgia Tech
Wins Over Projection: 0.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.6-5.4
67) TCU
Wins Over Projection: 0.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5
68) Jacksonville State
Wins Over Projection: 0.2
Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.0-6.0
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