Last week was a great week for College Football Network and my upset picks, as two of the five underdog picks won outright, two others covered, and South Carolina should have won but for some unbelievably bad luck and some terrible officiating.
We’re back at it this week with five more upset picks. This will be updated throughout the week, leading into Saturday, when it will serve as a live blog, where we track and break down every upset across the country as it happens, even the ones I never saw coming.
Biggest College Football Upsets of Week 4
James Madison 63, North Carolina 44, Fourth Quarter
Update: We’ve reached the “Sideline reporter notes the losing team is ‘playing for pride'” part of the game. North Carolina got its own blocked punt returned for a touchdown and this game still hasn’t felt like the Tar Heels have any chance whatsoever to mount a comeback.
I don’t think Geoff Collins fixed the North Carolina defense.
North Carolina is pressing offensively, knowing the defense doesn’t have any hope of slowing the Dukes. This one’s over, mail it in. The only question is whether Conner Harrell will relieve Jacolby Criswell. Eventually, one team blinks in a shootout and after Criswell’s pick six (James Madison’s second non-offensive touchdown of the game) the North Carolina sideline looked broken.
James Madison should be able to run the ball in the second half, much like the Dukes did in the first half. We’re on 80-watch in Chapel Hill.
Coming into this game, James Madison had nearly half of its yardage on just 13 plays, averaging nearly 30 yards per explosive play. Outside of that, the Dukes averaged 2.9 yards per non-explosive play. Bob Chesney’s team knows they’ll need to be explosive, and they’re ready. North Carolina over-committed to the run and got burned over the top.
Chesney has always been aggressive and proved it with an onside kick. North Carolina is in a fight. I have a feeling this will be the upset to monitor for the entire early slate. The Dukes have dominated on special teams.
After one quarter, the Dukes had 189 yards on 18 plays. 83% of that yardage has been on three plays, two explosive passes to Omarion Dollison, and an explosive run by Alonza Barnett. The Dukes were up after one. The explosiveness didn’t let up in the second quarter as the Dukes continued to gash North Carolina in both the run and pass game.
James Madison extended the lead to 32-21 on its first methodical drive of the entire season, proving concerning for the Tar Heel defense. James Madison had an eight-play, 75-yard drive with six plays of five yards or more in the second quarter. That’s more than the Dukes had the entire first quarter. That should concern the North Carolina defense.
Predicting the Week 4 College Football Upsets
San Jose State Spartans (+12) Over Washington State Cougars
A Friday night CW special, I’m really looking forward to this game. I correctly picked the Cougars over bitter rival Washington, but they can’t overlook a surprisingly strong San Jose State team in Ken Niumatalolo’s first year.
The former option specialist has the Spartans throwing the ball all over the field, and wide receiver Nick Nash has been absolutely spectacular.
At the very least, you should keep an eye on this game if you’re up, simply because it’s a fun one. The Spartans will likely need to be able to run the ball a bit more than they have against others so far, but the defense has been extremely salty and can likely match Washington State’s physicality.
This is a potential letdown game for the undefeated Cougars, who have to go on the road to Boise State next Saturday. If Nash gets going and the offense can score a few touchdowns, San Jose State’s defense could be just good enough to make this uncomfortably close for Washington State. If the Spartans do, all it takes is one or two plays to turn this into an outright upset.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+10) Over No. 19 Louisville Cardinals
Would it even be an upset if a Brent Key-coached Georgia Tech team beat a ranked ACC opponent? Key is 5-0 straight-up against nationally ranked ACC foes since taking over for the Yellow Jackets. Simply put, he always has Georgia Tech ready to compete against top teams.
Even more impressive is that all five have been away from home, with four being true road games. It’s not as if every ranked team should be. The Yellow Jackets dismantled Florida State in Week 0, and that now looks like a much less impressive win, given what we now know. Still, the expectation is that the Yellow Jackets will be ready to go when they face Louisville.
From a betting perspective, we simply don’t know enough about the Cardinals to give the Yellow Jackets 10 (originally 10.5) points.
Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough is on pace to shatter his career highs in his sixth year, but I’m not buying that he’s magically become something different than what he’s always been (in past quarterback-friendly offenses).
Louisville is probably not a bad team, but I’m not buying that big wins over a really bad FCS Austin Peay team and an 0-3 Jacksonville State mean the Cardinals are a powerhouse.
We do know about Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets will come out in 12 personnel and try to bully Louisville in the running game. So far, they’ve done that well.
The issue against Syracuse wasn’t that Georgia Tech’s offense couldn’t move the ball but that Kyle McCord was magical, putting the Yellow Jackets down early.
Shough will not be magical enough to put Georgia Tech off of its game script. I don’t anticipate Louisville throwing for 400 yards, nor do I envision the Cardinals slowing Georgia Tech’s rushing attack. I can’t believe this line, and it wouldn’t surprise me even slightly if the Yellow Jackets win outright.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+3.5) Over Virginia Cavaliers
Sometimes the names on the helmets lead Vegas to favor the wrong team in these non-conference matchups. I thought the same thing with WSU being the better team last week, and I’m calling this one as well.
This would be an upset more in perception than pure Vegas numbers. The sportsbooks have this as a close game, but I’d be more surprised if Virginia blows out Coastal Carolina than I would be if the Chanticleers handle business at home.
This is my mea culpa on Tim Beck. I hated the hire for Coastal Carolina, but he’s quickly turned the Chanticleers into his version of a Sun Belt power, without trying to blindly copy what Jamey Chadwell did in Conway.
The Chanticleers go four deep at running back, negating any potential depth advantage the Cavaliers might have. Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea has been effectively wild, but the Cavaliers are 2-1 despite a minus-five turnover ratio.
Coastal Carolina’s defense is excellent and can force turnovers. If the Chanticleers get up early, I don’t trust Colandrea’s arm enough to lead Virginia back without some mistakes.
Buffalo Bulls (+14) Over No. 23 Northern Illinois Huskies
This game is completely based on perception. Sometimes, fans and even Vegas overvalue single data points. All of the offseason research, previews, expectations, and even talks with insiders suggested that Northern Illinois would be a middle-of-the-road MAC team in what could be college football’s worst FBS conference.
But then the Huskies upset Notre Dame and suddenly becomes the favorite (in the eyes of some) to be the Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff? I’m not quite buying the hype, though the Huskies have a salty defense and strong rushing attack.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Buffalo, to its credit and perhaps detriment, also seems to be overachieving compared to preseason expectations. Nevertheless, that defense is really good for a MAC team.
MAC games are weird, and since neither offense is very explosive, possessions will be at a premium. If Shaun Dolac or Marquis Cooper make a big defensive play, it could flip this one. I think 14 points is far too large a spread, and Buffalo could win this one outright.
BYU Cougars (+6.5) Over No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats
Let me preface with the fact that I love Kansas State this season, especially offensively. However, this is a potential letdown spot in between two ranked matchups, and given the play style of quarterback Avery Johnson, the Wildcats are candidates to blow anyone out or lose to anyone every week.
Johnson has the wow factor of impressive physical tools. He can throw the ball a mile, outrun most linebackers (and even safeties), and break tackles.
Johnson also makes some truly terrible plays. Last week, he ran out the clock trying to do too much at the end of the half while the Wildcats were in field-goal range. It ultimately didn’t matter as Arizona’s offense couldn’t muster anything in the second half, but at some point, Johnson’s inexperience is going to cost KSU a game.
To its credit, BYU doesn’t have its most talented team ever, but the defense is solid, and the Cougars can force some turnovers and take care of the ball. Kansas State has more talent, but BYU is physical enough to match up with the Wildcats.
Other Potential College Football Upsets in Week 4
- NC State Wolfpack (+20.5) over No. 21 Clemson
- No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini (+7.5) over No. 22 Nebraska
- Mississippi State Bulldogs (+6) over Florida Gators
- No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (+7) over No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+3.5) over Virginia Tech Hokies
College Football Network has you covered with the latest news and analysis, rankings, transfer portal information, top 10 returning players, the 2024 college football season schedule, and much more!