The Week 3 slate might be lacking in marquee matchups but not in upset opportunities, and a few ranked teams could be on upset watch. This week, the cream of the Group of Five crop could thrive in non-conference matchups with traditional Power Four powers.
So, who’s on upset alert, and why could those teams go down?
Biggest College Football Upsets of Week 3
Boston College-Missouri
Early in the year, upsets are often about perception as much as actual ability and that might be the case in this one. The assumption is that since Missouri was fantastic last season, the Tigers will be fantastic in 2024. Boston College, meanwhile, didn’t get as much attention for dismantling Florida State because of the ugly start the Seminoles have had to the season.
Boston College took the ball and marched down the field initially, on the back of quarterback Thomas Castellanos’ legs. A gutsy fourth down call on fourth-and-four from the 12 led to a pretty touchdown pass. The Eagles don’t look scared early.
Boston College has controlled the tempo and kept Missouri’s offense off the field, but that only works if the Eagles avoid mistakes. A quick Castellanos interception after Missouri cut the lead to 14-6 really took the wind out of the Eagles’ sails. If Boston College wants to pull off the upset, it has to punch back and avoid mistakes.
Missouri controlled this in the second half, but I still don’t have a great read on the Tigers. Are they true College Football Playoff contenders?
Louisiana Tech-NC State
Favorites can’t let teams hang around and need to snuff out any hope of an upset early. NC State hasn’t done that early.
The Wolfpack dominated the game early, but couldn’t convert some short third downs that led to field goals. The Bulldogs finally hit a couple of long passing plays late in the second quarter that led to a touchdown run. The Bulldogs had one opportunity to cash in and they did, while the Wolfpack have struggled to put any of their many opportunities away for touchdowns.
The Wolfpack are in trouble. It’s been years since NC State have had a less-than-stellar defense, but 2024 is changing that. The Wolfpack struggled to tackle and create pressure, allowing Jack Turner to pick them apart.
Ironically, it was McCall’s injury that jolted the Wolfpack. Backup CJ Bailey has been phenomenal in relief, leading the Wolfpack to a 30-20 comeback win.
Memphis-Florida State
The Tigers took it to the Florida State Seminoles offense early, forcing a fumble on the first drive and then a three-and-out on the second drive. The Tiger front was more than up to the challenge of the Florida State offensive line and controlled the line of scrimmage early in the game.
The Florida State defense has kept the high-powered Tiger offense at bay so far, but the Seminoles have really struggled to get anything going offensively. D.J. Uiagalelei has had similar issues to his first two games, in that he’s struggling to push the ball down the field.
Three turnovers and 36 yards in the first half is as bad as it gets and the Seminoles are extremely lucky to still be in this one.
Memphis just suffocated Florida State and the Seminoles have real problems on offense. Memphis is now in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff as the Froup of Five representative, and the Tigers are $1.4 million richer, thanks to Florida State.
South Carolina-LSU
Many predicted a low-scoring game, but South Carolina ran the ball straight down the LSU defense’s throat in the first quarter. The Gamecocks ran power, power and more power and LSU couldn’t do anything to stop it.
The Gamecocks have more than held their own on the defensive front. In what is a strength-on-strength matchup, the Gamecock defensive line holds the upper hand early.
The Gamecocks got away from running inside on the second drive, but still moved the ball on a few short throws. LaNorris Sellers was a bit high on some throws, which is something to monitor as this game unfolds. Early though, it looks like the Tigers have their hands full in Columbia.
The Gamecock offense, which has struggled at times this season, looks confident. The Gamecocks are more physical than the Tigers early.
This game flipped when South Carolina was unable to put away a few early chances, including a questionable no-call on a close pass breakup in the end zone and a sack taken at the end of the half that put South Carolina out of field goal range.
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers was hurt on that play, which really hurt the Gamecocks’ chances. The Gamecocks failed to pick up a first down in the third quarter and had just two plays of positive yardage in a quarter that LSU dominated.
After LSU took the lead, South Carolina hit LSU on what looked like a counter play and when the linebacker got sucked inside, leaving a huge lane for Raheim Sanders. South Carolina’s receivers have blocked really well after Shane Beamer mentioned that as an area that needed improvement after the first couple of weeks of the season.
Ultimately, South Carolina’s inability to move the ball through the air (and some questionable penalties when they did) doomed the Gamecocks. What a game.
Predicting the Week 3 College Football Upsets
With only two ranked-on-ranked matchups, this week is ripe with upset spots. Specifically, four Group of Five teams with conference championship (and potentially College Football Playoff) hopes have huge non-conference matchups with excellent (or at least recently excellent) Power Four teams. Here, we’ll break down why these teams could pull off upsets.
UNLV Rebels (+7) Over Kansas Jayhawks
Selfishly, I think this could be the game of the week. Two of the most creative offenses clash in a rare Friday night matchup that actually looks like a great game.
UNLV’s Matthew Sluka is a Holy Cross transfer quarterback who can beat teams with his arm and legs (much like Kansas’ Jalon Daniels). However, as is typical, it’s the Rebels’ weird run-pass balance that could throw the Jayhawks off their game.
Sluka won’t throw much, but the Rebels live in 12 personnel (two running backs) as part of offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” offense. UNLV can beat you in a number of ways, with four players averaging over 50 rushing yards a game (and a fifth averaging just under 50). If that offense gets going, it wears down a defense before hitting teams with big passing plays, usually to superstar receiver Ricky White III.
This year though, the Rebels have a defense that can keep them in games. Against Big 12 Houston, UNLV held the Cougars scoreless until the game’s final drive, allowing just 158 yards in the game’s first 55 minutes.
If the defense can frustrate Kansas’ offense (which is lacking elite playmakers outside of Daniels and running back Devin Neal), then UNLV could dictate the pace and win this game outright. It’s worth having on the primary screen, even over Kansas State-Arizona.
Tulane Green Wave (+13) Over Oklahoma Sooners
It’s Year 1 for Jon Sumrall at Tulane, but the Green Wave hasn’t taken much of a step back. A week after taking Kansas State to the brink, the Green Wave has another chance to pull off an upset against Oklahoma.
The Sooners’ defense is legitimately good, but the offense (specifically the offensive line and receiving corps) is being held together by tape and bandages.
The offensive line was already a major question mark going into the season, but a few injuries, including to starting center Branson Hickman, who went down with an ankle injury 10 snaps into the season, have that unit on the ropes. Add in injuries to receivers Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq, and Jayden Gibson, and the offense is a walking M.A.S.H. unit.
Quarterback Jackson Arnold has been okay this season but hasn’t elevated the offense like people thought he might.
On the flip side, Tulane’s offense is ahead of schedule. Quarterback Darian Mensah was a surprise winner of the battle and has been excellent this season. If the Green Wave can rush the passer and keep this low scoring, they’ll cover and could win outright.
Memphis Tigers (+6.5) Over Florida State Seminoles
Memphis has flown under the radar after being a trendy playoff pick in the preseason, mostly because Boise State has grabbed the spotlight. But the Tigers absolutely have the talent to go undefeated, especailly now that Florida State is a mess.
Usually, we’d expect Power Four teams, especially those coming off an undefeated season, to bully Group of Five teams up front. But I’m not sure that happens Saturday.
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FSU hasn’t moved the ball well on the ground through two games, and DJ Uiagalelei has been a disappointment. A defensive line that was supposed to be elite hasn’t even been average. If Memphis running back Mario Anderson continues his strong play, he’s going to break several tackles and make the Seminoles look like the pesky underdog against the big bully.
Miami (OH) RedHawks (+3.5) Over Cincinnati Bearcats
Miami (OH) has high hopes for this season, even after a disappointing 13-7 loss to Northwestern. Veteran quarterback Brett Gabbert had an uncharacteristically poor game in Week 1, but expecting two of those in a row would be a mistake.
Once Pittsburgh finally started throwing the ball last week, the Panthers exposed a weak Cincinnati secondary. Miami should be able to move the ball through the air. If the RedHawks limit the turnovers, the defense is plenty strong enough to slow a questionable Bearcats offense.
Head coach Chuck Martin usually has his guys ready to play after a loss, especially out of a bye. The RedHawks will be ready and could cause issues for what looks like a fragile Cincinnati squad.
South Carolina Gamecocks (+7) Over LSU Tigers
If South Carolina wins Saturday, it’s because the pass rush is truly one of the best in the country. The Gamecocks completely dominated the line of scrimmage on defense against both Old Dominion and Kentucky. True freshman Dylan Stewart is already one of the best pass rushers in the country and fifth-year senior Kyle Kennard has been fantastic on the opposite side.
LSU’s offense has thrived this season despite a lack of consistent push in the running game. Tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. are both future first-rounders and have kept first-year starter Garrett Nussmeier clean in the pocket. If South Carolina changes that, I don’t think the Tigers can stay balanced enough offensively to move the ball.
On the other side, South Carolina’s offense has flashed potential as a ball-control unit that can salt away games and limit possessions. If the Gamecocks do enough offensively to put pressure on the Tigers’ offense, I think the pass rush can make Nussmeier uncomfortable.
If that’s the case, South Carolina will beat LSU and likely set up a battle of undefeateds with Ole Miss in Week 6.
Other Potential College Football Upsets in Week 3
- Purdue Boilermakers (+10) over Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Wisconsin Badgers (+16) over Alabama Crimson Tide
- Boston College Eagles (+16.5) over Missouri Tigers
- Oregon State Beavers (+16.5) over Oregon Ducks
- Nevada Wolf Pack (+17.5) over Minnesota Golden Gophers
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