Somehow, we are already nearly a quarter of the way through the 2024 college football season. The expanded 12-team College Football Playoffs are a mere three months away — but who will be in it?
Which Teams Have the Highest Odds of Making the Playoffs?
First, a primer on the new-look CFP:
The top five conference champions will earn guaranteed bids, with a conference needing a minimum of eight members to be eligible … *cough* Pac-2 *cough*. The next seven spots will go to the seven highest-ranked remaining teams.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive first-round byes, with the first-round matchups being No. 5 vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10, and No. 8 vs. No. 9.
Using College Football Network’s one-of-a-kind College Football Playoff Meter, we explore which teams enter Week 4 with the highest odds of making the dance.
Texas Longhorns – 92.9%
The AP Poll No. 1 team in the nation, it’s no surprise the Longhorns currently own the best odds of making the CFP. Not only are they 3-0, but they thoroughly embarrassed Michigan 31-12 in a much-anticipated Week 2 matchup.
Texas’ schedule is relatively “easy” the rest of the way, with home bouts against ranked SEC foes Oklahoma and Georgia the only stumbling points.
Memphis Tigers – 78.3%
The Group of Five is alive and well. Memphis has dismantled each of its first three opponents, including Florida State, who paid the program $1.3 million to come into their house and steal a victory.
A road visit to USF will test the Tigers’ mettle, as will the season finale against Tulane, but they are the favorite to win the G5 champion bid.
Oregon Ducks – 77.8%
The Ducks stumbled out of the gates with a 10-point win over Idaho and a three-point win over Boise State, but they found their rhythm in a 49-14 drubbing of Oregon State.
While Dan Lanning and Co. have undoubtedly circled their Nov. 12 date with Ohio State, they can’t sleep on late-season bouts with Illinois and Michigan.
Ohio State Buckeyes – 75.9%
The Buckeyes have one of the toughest three-game stretches in the nation coming up: Oregon, BYE, Nebraska, Penn State. It isn’t free sailing from there either, as they’ll face a high-scoring Indiana team and bitter rival Michigan to end the season.
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None of that will matter if Ohio State maintains its level of play — 50+ points vs. Akron and Western Michigan while allowing six total on defense.
Liberty Flames – 66.7%
Liberty is en route to another undefeated regular season, but the team hasn’t looked nearly as dominant as it did last year. Despite playing low-level competition in Campbell, New Mexico State, and UTEP, the Flames have only outscored their opponents 99-58 through three weeks.
With App State up next and Western Kentucky and Sam Houston on the back end of the schedule, Liberty needs to elevate its play and find consistency to stay unbeaten.
Ole Miss Rebels – 66.2%
There may be no other team running as hot as the Rebels entering Week 4. Just look at their scores in the first three weeks of the season: 76-0 vs. Furman, 52-3 vs. MTSU, 40-3 at Wake Forest.
SEC play begins in two weeks, with poor Georgia Southern standing in the way, but there are really only three games that could cause Ole Miss some fits: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, and vs. Georgia.
If Ole Miss can leave that triumvirate with two wins, Lane Kiffin’s squad will be sitting pretty in the CFP bracket.
Missouri Tigers – 64.2%
Have the Tigers been as utterly dominant as the two previously mentioned SEC programs? No, but they are also undefeated with two shutouts on their résumé (51-0 over Murray State and 38-0 over Buffalo).
Depending on which version of Texas A&M shows up in the first week of October, Missouri may not run into real trouble until traveling to Alabama and hosting Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks toward the end of the year.
Miami Hurricanes – 56.8%
No QB looks more in his zone than Cam Ward right now. Seriously, he’s playing like he has some music blaring through his helmet. But the Hurricanes are more than just the swagger they exude on the field, as they’ve beaten the breaks off Florida (41-17), FAMU (56-9), and Ball State (62-0).
USF may put up some points at home — like it did against Alabama — but who else will even remotely compete with Miami this season? Virginia Tech? Syracuse? The Hurricanes could enter the CFP without a single close win on their schedule.
Penn State Nittany Lions – 57.1%
After trouncing West Virginia in Week 1 — even with a weather delay — Penn State was nearly upset by Bowling Green. And while I’m as much of a Falcon believer as the next analyst, that game had no business being so close (34-12).
A get-right against Kent State is just what the doctor ordered this week, but a home bout with Illinois in Week 5 will be a better barometer for the Nittany Lions’ ceiling. They also cross the country to take on USC and host Ohio State two weeks later, presenting two critical contests that will define Penn State’s playoff hopes.
Tennessee Vols – 57.3%
We knew the combination of head coach Josh Heupel and QB Nico Iamaleava would put up points this year — we just didn’t know how many. Through three weeks, the Vols have averaged 63.7 points per game, the most in the nation.
Traveling to Oklahoma this week will be a litmus test for both programs, but that’s only the beginning for Tennessee. In the middle of the year, they’ll welcome Alabama to town, and just three weeks later, they land in Athens for one of the most important matchups of the season.
Georgia Bulldogs – 49.2%
At Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee.
Yeah, Georgia’s road to the national championship won’t be easy, especially if the Bulldogs continue to play down to their competition, as they did against Kentucky last week (13-12). Still, they seemingly have one of those games every year before running all over the rest of their opponents.
Washington State Cougars – 45.2%
A Pac-12 team???
Why, yes, that is correct.
Jake Dickert has his program entering Week 4 at 3-0, and they weren’t empty-calorie wins either. The Cougars exploded in Week 1, dropping 70 on Portland State. Then, they defeated Texas Tech 37-16 in the Mike Leach Legacy Bowl and upset in-state rival Washington in the Apple Cup 24-19.
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If that’s the level of play we can expect from Wazzu each and every week, the Cougars earn a non-conference champion bid. However, facing San Jose State, Boise State, and Fresno State over the next three weeks will either dash their hopes or cement their postseason candidacy.
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