The regular season is over. The conference championships are won. In less than 24 hours, we’ll know which teams will make up the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. As fans, players, and coaches all wait for the final rankings reveal, our post-championship weekend College Football Playoff predictions forecast how the final 12-team bracket could look on Sunday.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 5 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 12 Clemson Tigers
- No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers
If you were praying for chaos from the conference championship games, you got it in droves eventually. The Mountain West and Big 12 title games fell as expected, but once the SEC Championship Game entered the conversation, our college football playoff predictions really started to warp like we haven’t seen at any other point during this wildest of seasons.
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The Texas Longhorns’ overtime loss to the Georgia Bulldogs provided the first major change to the playoff projection. Steve Sarkisian’s team has long been considered a shoo-in for the quarterfinal, but it’s never wise to rule out a Kirby Smart team, and the Bulldogs will head to the Sugar Bowl as SEC champion.
The Penn State Nittany Lions’ loss to the Oregon Ducks was expected, and they could drop from the third-ranked team to the eighth-seed when head-to-head is factored in against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Finally, the committee set the scene for the SMU Mustangs falling out of the 12-team playoff with a loss to the Clemson Tigers, and even a close defeat won’t help their cause.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 12 Clemson
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Penn State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Ohio State
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest College Football Playoff predictions, will be Boise State (Mountain West), Arizona State (Big 12), Oregon (Big Ten), and Georgia (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
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We’ve not seen anything out of the Alabama Crimson Tide this season to believe they could trouble a dominant Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense or contain their ground game — especially on a cold night in South Bend. That sets up a clash against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, with a similar story unfolding to lead us to believe Marcus Freeman’s team would have the advantage.
Ohio State has already overcome Indiana once, and our college football predictions suggest they could do the same again, advancing to a quarterfinal showdown with a Georgia team that might be better without Carson Beck. Penn State is a 2.5-point favorite to overcome Tennessee in the first round, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4 Arizona State
The Sugar Bowl matchup between Georgia and Ohio State should be a defensive slugfest with a strong ground game influence. While you shouldn’t be swayed by recency bias, it’s hard to imagine the offensive unit we saw against the Michigan Wolverines having any success against the Bulldogs, who book a spot in the Orange Bowl against a surging Notre Dame team.
In the other semifinal, it’s honestly difficult to see any team stopping Oregon this season, especially a Penn State team that already came up short against the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game. In our college football playoff predictions, they come up against an Arizona State team that should be able to feast on the 73rd-ranked run defense with Cam Skattebo.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia
Oregon’s progress all the way to the national title game has been a popular theme of our college football playoff predictions from early on, and there is no reason to believe that the Ducks won’t be playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Jan. 20. Will Stein has their offense moving with Dillon Gabriel at QB, and the defense has as just as many playmakers, making them a potent threat.
There have been more question marks about Georgia this year, but when the chips are down and they’re doubted, Smart’s team always finds a way, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them back in Atlanta toward the end of January. The CFN FPM gives them a 53.8% chance of beating Notre Dame in the semifinal and setting up what could be a classic title game matchup.
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