Using the College Football Playoff Predictor, exclusive to CFN, we can take an expert look at the updated College Football Playoff chances for all the teams in the hunt. While the list is vast at the current moment, we’re looking at the top 25 teams and maybe a few stragglers that have a chance at making the Playoffs with this analysis.
For these rankings below, we’ve altered them just a bit from using the AP Top 25 to the latest College Football Rankings.
1) Oregon Ducks
Playoff Probability: 99.29% (was 99.19%)
With their win against Ohio State, the Ducks are clearly in the driver’s seat as the best team in the Big Ten and, arguably, the entire country. They have a trip to Madison in Week 12 that can clinch their spot in the Big Ten Championship with a win by virtue of head-to-head records of all the contenders.
- @ Wisconsin: 88.1%
- Washington: 94.4%
Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Ohio State: 61.9%
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
Playoff Probability: 58.22% (was 57.49%)
A trip to Wrigley Field is in store for Week 12 before the big game against .. not Michigan .. but Indiana. With back-to-back massive games, one with Big Ten and Playoff implications, and the other just simply one of the best rivalries in sports, OSU’s last two games are incredibly meaningful. Win out, and they’re in. Lose one, and it gets a bit dicier.
- @ Northwestern: 95.6%
- Indiana: 71.6%
- Michigan: 91.3%
Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 48.1%
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
3) Texas Longhorns
Playoff Probability: 53.98% (was 48.07%)
The Longhorns are back in the driver’s seat in the SEC, kind of. They need to win out and that essentially means all the games that are in front of them between teams vying for the SEC Championship will have split their games, making the picture a bit clearer.
If the Longhorns knock off A&M at the end of the year, by all accounts, they should be in the SEC Championship Game and have a chance to earn the top spot in the playoff rankings at that rate. Like everyone else in the top portion, win out to help control your bracket placement and that illustrious first-round bye.
- @ Arkansas: 83.5%
- Kentucky: 94.4%
- @ Texas A&M: 61.9%
Chance to win SEC: 46.80%
4) Penn State Nittany Lions
Playoff Probability: 61.05% (was 58.32%)
As interesting as it will be for Penn State to win out the rest of the way as they should, they’ll be tuned in to the final two weeks of the season for Ohio State. The Nittany Lions can still make the Big Ten Championship Game by winning out, having Ohio State defeat Indiana, and hoping Michigan can beat the Buckeyes in Columbus.
MORE: Big Ten Championship Game Scenarios
In that scenario, Penn State and Indiana hit the tiebreaker together, both having lost to Ohio State. Right now, that tiebreaker goes to the Nittany Lions. Winning out can help their cause, as can their former Big Ten opponents winning their games down the stretch.
- @ Purdue: 94.3%
- @ Minnesota: 73.8%
- Maryland: 93.9%
Chance to win Big Ten: 1.64%
5) Indiana Hoosiers
Playoff Probability: 87.80% (was 80.29%)
Indiana can further crash the Big Ten party by beating Ohio State in a week’s time. But in all reality, the Hoosiers have nearly sewn up their playoff appearance, even with a loss to the Buckeyes in Week 13.
If they do lose to Ohio State, it’s not quite over for them in terms of the Big Ten either. All those scenarios are listed above in Penn State’s portion, though.
- @ Ohio State: 28.4%
- Purdue: 96.6%
Chance to win Big Ten: 7.65%
6) BYU Cougars
Playoff Probability: 89.77% (was 88.54%)
If you are unaware of the Holy War and its impact on the community, the state of Utah, and the teams themselves, just look at how the game went and the subsequent fallout afterward. BYU struggled against a Utah team that is clearly down on its luck and not anywhere near the standard of excellence we’ve all become accustomed to in the Kyle Whittingham era.
However, good teams find ways to win, and that’s what BYU did. There was no way of quantifying how difficult it is to beat your arch rival in a game that means so much to each side, and arguably could be seen as the most difficult game in November for the Cougars.
Now, it’s time to avoid a slip-up against one of their last three opponents, but even one loss is available to be overcome and still make the Big 12 Championship as well as potentially make the Playoffs at that point.
- Kansas: 87.8%
- @ Arizona State: 65.7%
- Houston: 91.1%
Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Colorado: 62.6%
7) Tennessee Volunteers
Playoff Probability: 46.72% (was 36.72%)
The Volunteers got a new lease on life following last week’s disastrous outing from Georgia. Tennessee now has a realistic shot at knocking off what is an inept Bulldog offense at this time.
Doing so would put the Vols into the SEC Championship Game and essentially lock their place in the playoffs at the same time. In reality, the Georgia-Tennessee game could be seen as a playoff elimination game.
- @ Georgia: 38.1%
- UTEP: 99.8%
- Vanderbilt: 82.6%
Chance to win SEC: 14.98%
8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Playoff Probability: 52.83% (was 51.33%)
Games against service academies aren’t usually as meaningful as Army vs. Notre Dame should be in Week 13. Thanks to the success of the Black Knights this year, the game against Army pushes the loser of the contest clear out of the playoff picture.
For Notre Dame, they still have games against Virginia and USC to win, but the game against Army has more implications.
- Virginia: 85.9%
- Army: 80.6%
- @ USC: 73.4%
9) Miami Hurricanes
Playoff Probability: 66.82% (was 96.01%)
We originally said at the top of the week that Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech hurt the ACC’s chances of having multiple representatives in the playoffs and the CFP committee clearly agreed. With their placing Miami at No. 9 and SMU at No. 14, it’s clear that the winner of the ACC is likely the only team in the picture for the playoffs.
And, it’s good news for Boise State, who could hypothetically finish the season ranked higher than the ACC Champion and get the No. 4 seed after all. For Miami, it’s win the ACC at this point, and look good doing so.
- Wake Forest: 92.3%
- @ Syracuse: 73.0%
Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. SMU: 63.1%
10) Alabama Crimson Tide
Playoff Probability: 29.27% (was 16.48%)
After running through LSU in Baton Rouge, the road map becomes a bit clearer for Alabama in terms of making the SEC Championship and making the playoffs as an at-large. They’ll have to win the rest of their games and they should be in the playoffs, but making the SEC is still on the table.
MORE: SEC Championship Game Scenarios
- Mercer 99.9%
- @ Oklahoma 81.1%
- Auburn 94.1%
Chance to win SEC: 5.84%
11) Ole Miss Rebels
Playoff Probability: 33.57% (was 15.72%)
The CFN Playoff Predictor is high on the Rebels as the season winds down. Why? They’ve got the easiest path to winning out and securing a playoff spot, with two games against struggling opponents. On top of that, they still have a shot at making the SEC Championship, which could vault them into serious top-four contention.
For now, it’s simple: take care of business, Rebels. Win out, clinch a playoff spot, and let luck handle the rest.
- @ Florida: 92.9%
- Mississippi State: 96.8%
Chance to win SEC: 16.51%
12) Georgia Bulldogs
Playoff Probability: 18.76% (was 49.03%)
There’s a world where the Georgia Bulldogs don’t make the College Football Playoffs, as crazy as that sounds. If they keep playing with the inept offense they showed this past week against Ole Miss, they’ll drop one of their final three games, miss out on the SEC Championship and the playoffs at large.
What is the most likely of those games to lose? That’s to Tennesee in Week 12. And if that happens, get ready for a mayo bath in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Coach Smart.
- Tennessee: 61.9%
- UMass: 99.9%
- Georgia Tech: 82.1%
Chance to win SEC: 8.62%
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13) Boise State Broncos
Playoff Probability: 58.24% (was 53.33%)
The Broncos ranked 12th in the playoff committee’s eyes last week, but 13th this week. This shows that the committee is not quite ready to say they’re one of the top 10 teams in the country, when, in reality, they truly are.
Boise State’s path to the playoffs is still remarkably simple: win the Mountain West and you’re all but in. However, if they do lose a game in the regular season but still win the MWC, the road is a lot less clear due to the recent rise from AAC programs Army and Tulane.
If the committee has lowered Boise State following a close win against Nevada, imagine how low they’d drop them if they did lose against one of their remaining three games.
- @ San Jose State: 87.2%
- @ Wyoming: 94.4%
- Oregon State: 85.9%
Theoretical Mountain West Championship Game vs. Colorado State: 84.5%
14) SMU Mustangs
Playoff Probability: 50.75% (was 51.10%)
We said this when basing our rankings off the AP, but it’s clear now more than ever, Miami is going to be viewed as the better team in the ACC and SMU’s chances to make the playoff took a hit when the Hurricanes lost to Georgia Tech. That’s because the committee is all but guaranteeing us that only the ACC Champion is going to make the playoffs at this point.
And that’s a dig at SMU, who likely deserves praise as a top-10 team at this point. Unlike some teams in this range, however, SMU can still have a slip-up and drop in a regular season game while still making the ACC Championship Game.
MORE: ACC Championship Game Scenarios
They have to win the ACC Championship Game, no matter what, at this point to make the playoffs.
- Boston College: 80.6%
- @ Virginia: 73.0%
- California: 74.9%
Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. Miami: 42.6%
15) Texas A&M Aggies
Playoff Probability: 15.63% (was 16.18%)
It doesn’t quite feel like it, but Texas A&M is still technically in the driver’s seat for the SEC Championship Game. They’ll have to avoid any slip-ups on the road to hosting the Longhorns, but a win against Texas (as well as vs. New Mexico State and at Auburn) means they’re in the SEC Championship.
Get in there, win the title, and make the playoffs. Lose to Texas, however, and it’s likely a non-NY6 bowl for the Aggies.
- New Mexico State: 99.9%
- @ Auburn: 83.0%
- Texas: 38.1%
Chance to win SEC: 7.16%
16) Kansas State Wildcats
Playoff Probability: 11.46% (was 12.26%)
When basing our rankings off of the AP poll, KSU sat at No. 20 and we said that they are absolutely the tertiary team to be afraid of in the Big 12. We didn’t know, however, that they are technically the second team the committee is looking at from the Big 12 at this rate.
Ranking Kansas State above Colorado makes sense when you look back to their head-to-head matchup, but not when Kansas State is reeling from a loss to Houston a week ago and Colorado coming off a great performance against Texas Tech. The committee clearly gave the Wildcats the benefit of the doubt, and ranking them higher than Colorado signifies that they’ll be happy to put a two-loss Big 12 team in at large if the chips fall accordingly.
Farmageddon looms large, though.
- Arizona State: 66.4%
- Cincinnati: 79.9%
- @ Iowa State: 50.4%
Chance to win Big 12: 4.61%
17) Colorado Buffaloes
Playoff Probability: 14.30% (was 10.05%)
The committee’s ranking clearly shows that Colorado is unlikely to make the playoffs as anything short of the Big 12 champion. Following Week 11’s results, the committee ranked Kansas State above, so it’s fine for a Buffaloes fan to be a bit upset.
The silver lining there? Oh, just the fact that they should be betting favorites in every game leading up to the championship game and a slight underdog against BYU as our current metrics indicate.
- Utah: 78.1%
- @ Kansas: 73.4%
- Oklahoma State: 84.2%
Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. BYU: 41.4%
18) Washington State Cougars
Playoff Probability: 25.12% (was 25.47%)
Some laughed when we had Washington State with an above 20% chance to make the playoffs a few weeks ago. Now, I am not saying I’m laughing now, I’m just here sat with the legitimacy of our numbers staring me right in the face.
Washington State has as good a chance to win out as anyone else in the country with three winnable games to close out the season. However, they’ll have to look ‘good’ in the committee’s eyes in order to snag an at-large bid.
Just winning out won’t cut it for the Cougars; they need dominant performances — especially against Oregon State — and need to leave lasting memories in the committee’s eyes for them to be considered, sadly.
John Mateer, we’re looking right at you.
- @ New Mexico: 83.3%
- @ Oregon State: 68.8%
- Wyoming: 94.8%
19) Louisville Cardinals
Playoff Probability: 5.79% (was 5.95%)
Louisville is fully in “win the ACC to make it” mode in terms of playoff aspirations. They need a lot of help to do just that, so the first step is winning their remaining three contests.
With a little luck, Louisville can climb up in the committee’s rankings to close out each week through the regular season and hope that the win over Clemson holds enough weight when it comes to the final seedings. Their biggest chance to look good in the committee’s eyes is to dominate Pittsburgh and head to hostile territory to knock off SEC foe Kentucky in the Governor’s Cup.
- @ Stanford: 86.8%
- Pittsburgh: 68.8%
- @ Kentucky: 65.1%
Chance to win ACC: 1.34%
20) Clemson Tigers
Playoff Probability: 15.56% (was 12.94%)
Miami’s loss stymies the chances of a multi-loss ACC team making it at large, but if any team has a chance to do so, it’s the historic factor helping Clemson here. The committee will certainly trust a two-loss Clemson team over a two-loss Miami or SMU team, especially if they can knock off South Carolina to close out the season.
What hurts Clemson at this point, however, is the fact that the committee clearly likes Louisville’s head-to-head win over Clemson much more than they dislike Louisville’s three losses already. That checks out with the committee’s logic at placing Kansas State over Colorado in this week’s iteration as well.
- @ Pittsburgh: 65.7%
- The Citadel: 99.9%
- South Carolina: 65.1%
Chance to win ACC: 41.04%
21) South Carolina Gamecocks
Playoff Probability: 4.11%
At this point, South Carolina is just set to play spoiler for the teams on their schedule. Sure, they have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs, but as a long shot at this rate, how sweet would it be to knock Missouri out and all but ensure Clemson doesn’t make it?
Crazier things have happened, and yes, they’re alive for the playoffs, but three wins down the stretch is still an incredibly successful season for SC.
- Missouri: 52.8%
- Wofford: 99.9%
- @ Clemson: 34.9%
Chance to win SEC: 0.0%
22) LSU Tigers
Playoff Probability: 9.54% (was 14.03%)
LSU’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread—technically still alive in the SEC, but realistically, their chances are slim to none. By this time next week, they’ll likely be out of contention, leaving an at-large bid as their only pathway to the playoffs this season.
Their upcoming game at Florida is pivotal, especially as they prepare for both Gators quarterbacks. A decisive win there could boost their case. However, any misstep against the three teams they should dominate to close out the season will spell the end of their playoff aspirations.
- @ Florida 87.4%
- Vanderbilt 75.5%
- Oklahoma 82.6%
Chance to win SEC: 0.04%
23) Missouri Tigers
Playoff Probability: 14.16% (was 11.48%)
They hold a higher percentage chance of making the playoffs than South Carolina, despite sitting just below them here. This is largely because they have three SEC games remaining on their schedule and the added edge of not being technically eliminated from SEC contention yet.
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For Missouri, the path forward starts with Drew Pyne performing well enough against South Carolina to keep their hopes alive. From there, it’s about relying on a cascade of unusual outcomes from other SEC teams to sustain the dream. But first, they have to beat South Carolina—a result our metrics don’t predict in their favor.
- @ South Carolina: 47.2%
- @ Mississippi State: 87.4%
- Arkansas: 67.7%
Chance to win SEC: 0.05%
24) Army Black Knights
Playoff Probability: 61.83% (was 62.43%)
A brutal ranking from the committee here for Army, almost giving them no shot in our eyes it appears. So before we grip for too long, we’ll let it play out and see how the Black Knights look against Notre Dame.
But before we do get out of here, it should be said, with such a massive gap this large between Notre Dame (No. 8) and Army at No. 24, if the Irish were to lose to the Black Knights, are they simply going to swap the team’s ranking? Or just how low would they drop Notre Dame?
Looking at it on the surface, it’s clear the committee is banking on ND winning against Army so they don’t have to answer that question.
- Notre Dame: 29.7%
- UTSA: 88.3%
- Navy: 79.3%
Theoretical AAC Championship Game vs. Tulane: 54.3%
25) Tulane Green Wave
Playoff Probability: 9.98% (was %)
A long shot after two early-season losses, head coach Jon Sumrall and the Green Wave have been flying under the radar for most of the season. That’s not a knock on their talent—far from it. It’s more a reflection of how little national attention they’ve received.
Tulane poses a dynamic challenge for any team they face and should take care of business before meeting Army in the AAC Championship Game. Their only real obstacle now is Boise State, which holds a strong position in the initial playoff rankings. That could ultimately stand in the way of the Green Wave making the postseason.
- @ Navy: 66.4%
- Memphis: 67.7%
Theoretical AAC Championship Game vs. Army: 45.7%
Other teams with high playoff probability not in the top 25:
- Louisiana: 47.95%
- James Madison: 13.58%
- Western Kentucky: 13.14%
- UNLV: 11.46%
- Pittsburgh: 10.13%
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