Using the College Football Playoff Predictor, exclusive to CFN, we can take an expert look at the updated College Football Playoff chances for all the teams in the hunt. While the list is vast at the current moment, we’re looking at the top 25 teams and maybe a few stragglers that have a chance at making the Playoffs with this analysis.
For these rankings below, we used the latest AP Top 25 but used CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor numbers to find the probabilities.
1) Oregon Ducks
Playoff Probability: 99.29% (was 99.19%)
The Ducks handled their business in Week 11, though we would have liked to see a cleaner performance. However, their chances can’t get much higher than the 99.19% they entered last week with, even if they went up a tenth of a percentage point. It’s all about seeding for Oregon now.
- @ Wisconsin: 88.1%
- Washington: 94.4%
Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Ohio State: 61.9%
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
Playoff Probability: 58.22% (was 57.49%)
So the Buckeyes are a bit of a unique case here. Yes, they are a terrific team. But also, they have a really difficult two-game stretch to end the year. Both are at home, but both are uniquely difficult in the sense that Indiana is much more talented than people give them credit for and Michigan is .. well just look at how BYU couldn’t handle Utah for 59 minutes.
Rivalry games mean so much more, especially if the season is a lost cause for Michigan, but they can feel better about themselves by knocking OSU out of the Big Ten Championship Game. That’s why it’s no sure thing the make the playoffs at this point, when in reality, they can drop the game against Michigan (or Indiana), not make the Big Ten Championship Game, and still get an at-large bid.
Win out, though, Buckeyes, and you won’t have to worry about a thing.
- @ Northwestern: 95.6%
- Indiana: 71.6%
- Michigan: 91.3%
Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 48.1%
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
3) Texas Longhorns
Playoff Probability: 53.98% (was 48.07%)
The Longhorns are back in the driver’s seat in the SEC, kind of. They need to win out and that essentially means all the games that are in front of them between teams vying for the SEC Championship will have split their games, making the picture a bit clearer.
If the Longhorns knock off A&M at the end of the year, by all accounts, they should be in the SEC Championship Game and have a chance to earn the top spot in the playoff rankings at that rate. Like everyone else in the top portion, win out to help control your bracket placement and that illustrious first-round bye.
- @ Arkansas: 83.5%
- Kentucky: 94.4%
- @ Texas A&M: 61.9%
Chance to win SEC: 46.80%
4) Penn State Nittany Lions
Playoff Probability: 61.05% (was 58.32%)
As interesting as it will be for Penn State to win out the rest of the way as they should, they’ll be tuned in to the final two weeks of the season for Ohio State. The Nittany Lions can still make the Big Ten Championship Game by winning out, having Ohio State defeat Indiana, and hoping Michigan can beat the Buckeyes in Columbus.
MORE: Big Ten Championship Game Scenarios
In that scenario, Penn State and Indiana hit the tiebreaker together, both having lost to Ohio State. Right now, that tiebreaker goes to the Nittany Lions.
- @ Purdue: 94.3%
- @ Minnesota: 73.8%
- Maryland: 93.9%
Chance to win Big Ten: 1.64%
5) Indiana Hoosiers
Playoff Probability: 87.80% (was 80.29%)
Indiana can further crash the Big Ten party by beating Ohio State in a week’s time. But in all reality, the Hoosiers have nearly sewn up their playoff appearance, even with a loss to the Buckeyes in Week 13.
If they do lose to Ohio State, it’s not quite over for them in terms of the Big Ten either. All those scenarios are listed above in Penn State’s portion, though.
- @ Ohio State: 28.4%
- Purdue: 96.6%
Chance to win Big Ten: 7.65%
6) Tennessee Volunteers
Playoff Probability: 46.72% (was 36.72%)
The Volunteers got a new lease on life following last week’s disastrous outing from Georgia. Tennessee now has a realistic shot at knocking off what is an inept Bulldog offense at this time.
Doing so would put the Vols into the SEC Championship Game and essentially lock their place in the playoffs at the same time. In reality, the Georgia-Tennessee game could be seen as a playoff elimination game.
- @ Georgia: 38.1%
- UTEP: 99.8%
- Vanderbilt: 82.6%
Chance to win SEC: 14.98%
7) BYU Cougars
Playoff Probability: 89.77% (was 88.54%)
If you are unaware of the Holy War and its impact on the community, the state of Utah, and the teams themselves, just look at how the game went and the subsequent fallout afterward. BYU struggled against a Utah team that is clearly down on its luck and not anywhere near the standard of excellence we’ve all become accustomed to in the Kyle Whittingham era.
However, good teams find ways to win, and that’s what BYU did. There was no way of quantifying how difficult it is to beat your arch rival in a game that means so much to each side, and arguably could be seen as the most difficult game in November for the Cougars.
Now, it’s time to avoid a slip-up against one of their last three opponents, but even one loss is available to be overcome and still make the Big 12 Championship as well as potentially make the Playoffs at that point.
- Kansas: 87.8%
- @ Arizona State: 65.7%
- Houston: 91.1%
Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Colorado: 62.6%
8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Playoff Probability: 52.83% (was 51.33%)
Win out and you’re in as an at-large for Notre Dame. It’s as easy as that. Can they knock off Army and beat a down-on-their-luck USC team? They have the easiest road ahead, yet have the least runway in terms of slip-ups. The Irish have to win out to make it.
- Virginia: 85.9%
- Army: 80.6%
- @ USC: 73.4%
9) Alabama Crimson Tide
Playoff Probability: 29.27% (was 16.48%)
After running through LSU in Baton Rouge, the road map becomes a bit clearer for Alabama in terms of making the SEC Championship and making the playoffs as an at-large. They’ll have to win the rest of their games and they should be in the playoffs, but making the SEC is still on the table.
MORE: SEC Championship Game Scenarios
- Mercer 99.9%
- @ Oklahoma 81.1%
- Auburn 94.1%
Chance to win SEC: 5.84%
10) Ole Miss Rebels
Playoff Probability: 33.57% (was 15.72%)
The CFN Predictor really likes the Rebels down the stretch. That’s because they have the easiest road to win out and make the playoffs with two matchups against disappointing teams. Now, they can still make the SEC Championship game as well, and could put themselves into the top four consideration at that rate.
But right now, handle your business, Rebels. Win out, make the playoffs, and then hope for some luck.
- @ Florida: 92.9%
- Mississippi State: 96.8%
Chance to win SEC: 16.51%
11) Georgia Bulldogs
Playoff Probability: 18.76% (was 49.03%)
There’s a world where the Georgia Bulldogs don’t make the College Football Playoffs, as crazy as that sounds. If they keep playing with the inept offense they showed this past week against Ole Miss, they’ll drop one of their final three games, miss out on the SEC Championship and the playoffs at large.
What is the most likely of those games to lose? That’s to Tennesee in Week 12. And if that happens, get ready for a mayo bath in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Coach Smart.
- Tennessee: 61.9%
- UMass: 99.9%
- Georgia Tech: 82.1%
Chance to win SEC: 8.62%
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12) Miami Hurricanes
Playoff Probability: 66.82% (was 96.01%)
It could be said that Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech hurt their chances, sure, but it more realistically hurt the ACC’s chances of having multiple teams in the playoffs at this point. If the top team can lose a game the way Miami did to a team like Tech, then the committee will have nothing to do with a multi-loss ACC team at this rate as they showed with their initial rankings.
All this to say, get the automatic qualifying bid from winning the ACC, which they have an advantage in our metrics to do right now over SMU.
- Wake Forest: 92.3%
- @ Syracuse: 73.0%
Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. SMU: 63.1%
13) Boise State Broncos
Playoff Probability: 58.24% (was 53.33%)
The Broncos rank 12th in the playoff committee’s eyes, but 13th in the AP. In reality, they’re probably a top-10 team, even if they haven’t quite looked it the past handful of games on both sides of the ball. That said, they have over an 84% chance to win in each of their last three games and, subsequently, their fourth or the Mountain West Championship.
If they do that, they have the advantage of being the highest-ranked Group of Five team and as such, would be in. That being said, as we mentioned last week, another loss from Miami or even if SMU beats Miami in the ACC Championship, Boise is still alive for the No. 4 seed as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion.
- @ San Jose State: 87.2%
- @ Wyoming: 94.4%
- Oregon State: 85.9%
Theoretical Mountain West Championship Game vs. Colorado State: 84.5%
14) SMU Mustangs
Playoff Probability: 50.75% (was 51.10%)
So their chances moved down a bit despite sitting idle in Week 11. That’s because Miami still owns the advantage over SMU in a head-to-head ACC Championship Game and due to the fact that Miami’s loss now clouds the ACC’s chances of putting two teams in the playoffs.
MORE: ACC Championship Game Scenarios
It’s win or you’re out for SMU. It doesn’t help that the tiebreakers are not nearly as kind to SMU as others.
- Boston College: 80.6%
- @ Virginia: 73.0%
- California: 74.9%
Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. Miami: 42.6%
15) Texas A&M Aggies
Playoff Probability: 15.63% (was 16.18%)
It doesn’t quite feel like it, but Texas A&M is still technically in the driver’s seat for the SEC Championship Game. They’ll have to avoid any slip-ups on the road to hosting the Longhorns, but a win against Texas (as well as vs. New Mexico State and at Auburn) means they’re in the SEC Championship.
Get in there, win the title, and make the playoffs. Lose to Texas, however, and it’s likely a non-NY6 bowl for the Aggies.
- New Mexico State: 99.9%
- @ Auburn: 83.0%
- Texas: 38.1%
Chance to win SEC: 7.16%
16) Army Black Knights
Playoff Probability: 61.83% (was 62.43%)
The big one is on the horizon: Notre Dame. Can the Black Knights knock off Notre Dame en route to likely winning the AAC?
Even with a win against Notre Dame, it’s not a given that Army makes it into the Playoffs at that point. They’d certainly knock the Irish from contention but would still have to make it as an at-large themselves if Boise State wins out.
There’s a lot of football left to be played, but winning as a potential large underdog against Notre Dame is first.
- Notre Dame: 29.7%
- UTSA: 88.3%
- Navy: 79.3%
Theoretical AAC Championship Game vs. Tulane: 54.3%
17) Clemson Tigers
Playoff Probability: 15.56% (was 12.94%)
Miami’s loss stymies the chances of a multi-loss ACC team making it at large, but if any team has a chance to do so, it’s the historic factor helping Clemson here. The committee will certainly trust a two-loss Clemson team over a two-loss Miami or SMU team, especially if they can knock off South Carolina to close out the season.
- @ Pittsburgh: 65.7%
- The Citadel: 99.9%
- South Carolina: 65.1%
Chance to win ACC: 41.04%
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18) Colorado Buffaloes
Playoff Probability: 14.30% (was 10.05%)
For Colorado, it’s win the Big 12 to get in. That could likely put two Big 12 teams in, if they’re playing BYU and knock off the Cougars in the Big 12 Championship. However, there is likely not a world in which Colorado makes it as anything short of the Big 12 champion, so winning the next four games is crucial.
The silver lining there? Oh, just the fact that they should be betting favorites in every game leading up to the championship game and a slight underdog against BYU as our current metrics indicate.
- Utah: 78.1%
- @ Kansas: 73.4%
- Oklahoma State: 84.2%
Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. BYU: 41.4%
19) Washington State Cougars
Playoff Probability: 25.12% (was 25.47%)
Some laughed when we had Washington State with an above 20% chance to make the playoffs a few weeks ago. Now, I am not saying I’m laughing now, I’m just here sat with the legitimacy of our numbers staring me right in the face.
Washington State has as good a chance to win out as anyone else in the country with three winnable games to close out the season. However, they’ll have to look ‘good’ in the committee’s eyes in order to snag an at-large bid.
Just winning out won’t cut it for the Cougars; they need dominant performances — especially against Oregon State — and need to leave lasting memories in the committee’s eyes for them to be considered, sadly.
John Mateer, we’re looking right at you.
- @ New Mexico: 83.3%
- @ Oregon State: 68.8%
- Wyoming: 94.8%
20) Kansas State Wildcats
Playoff Probability: 11.46% (was 12.26%)
The Wildcats are in a steep uphill climb, needing some serious help to get to the Big 12 Championship Game. But after the way Iowa State has played recently, the tertiary team to be afraid of in the conference is absolutely Kansas State.
Now, handling their business against Arizona State and Cincinnati is one thing, but a potential Big 12 (or even Playoff) eliminating Farmaggedeon is on the horizon to close out the season. For a game that needs little help to hype up, closing out the year with a potential berth in the Big 12 Championship and playoffs on the line would make that game even more exciting than usual.
- Arizona State: 66.4%
- Cincinnati: 79.9%
- @ Iowa State: 50.4%
Chance to win Big 12: 4.61%
21) LSU Tigers
Playoff Probability: 9.54% (was 14.03%)
Their chances are almost nill — but technically, LSU is still alive in the SEC. That will likely not be the case by this time next week and an at-large bid is their only shot at making the playoffs this season.
For LSU, a crucial game at Florida in which they’re reportedly preparing for both Gator quarterbacks is key. Win that one, convincingly, and they can improve their chances. But any shaky step against three teams they should be leaps and bounds ahead of to close out their season will be the end of their playoff hopes.
- @ Florida 87.4%
- Vanderbilt 75.5%
- Oklahoma 82.6%
Chance to win SEC: 0.04%
22) Louisville Cardinals
Playoff Probability: 5.79% (was 5.95%)
Louisville is fully in “win the ACC to make it” mode in terms of playoff aspirations. They need a lot of help to do just that, so the first step is winning their remaining three contests.
With a little luck, Louisville can climb up in the committee’s rankings to close out each week through the regular season and hope that the win over Clemson holds enough weight when it comes to the final seedings.
- @ Stanford: 86.8%
- Pittsburgh: 68.8%
- @ Kentucky: 65.1%
Chance to win ACC: 1.34%
23) South Carolina Gamecocks
Playoff Probability: 4.11% (was %)
At this point, South Carolina is just set to play spoiler for the teams on their schedule. Sure, they have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs, but as a long shot at this rate, how sweet would it be to knock Missouri out and all but ensure Clemson doesn’t make it?
Crazier things have happened, and yes, they’re alive for the playoffs, but three wins down the stretch is still an incredibly successful season for SC.
- Missouri: 52.8%
- Wofford: 99.9%
- @ Clemson: 34.9%
Chance to win SEC: 0.0%
24) Missouri Tigers
Playoff Probability: 14.16% (was 11.48%)
They have a larger percentage chance to make the playoffs than South Carolina sitting right above them here, but that’s because they have three SEC games on their schedule and a slight advantage because they are technically not eliminated from the SEC yet.
So, for Missouri, it’s hope Drew Pyne plays well enough against South Carolina to stay alive and hope for a bevy of unique situations and results from the SEC’s competing teams to keep the dream alive. That starts with actually beating SC, which our metrics don’t see them doing.
- @ South Carolina: 47.2%
- @ Mississippi State: 87.4%
- Arkansas: 67.7%
Chance to win SEC: 0.05%
25) Tulane Green Wave
Playoff Probability: 9.98% (was %)
A long shot since two early-season loses, head coach Jon Sumrall and the Green Wave have flown largely under the radar this season. That’s no indictment on their talent at all, more so of the national eye not watching them close enough.
Tulane presents a dynamic problem for any team on their schedule and they should handle business before getting Army in the AAC Championship Game. Their only roadblock at this point is Boise State sitting pretty high in the initial playoff rankings, something that would block the Green Wave from making the postseason.
- @ Navy: 66.4%
- Memphis: 67.7%
Theoretical AAC Championship Game vs. Army: 45.7%
Other teams with high playoff probability not in the top 25:
- Louisiana: 47.95%
- James Madison: 13.58%
- Western Kentucky: 13.14%
- UNLV: 11.46%
- Pittsburgh: 10.13%
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