Using the College Football Playoff Predictor, exclusive to CFN, we can take an expert look at the updated College Football Playoff chances for all the teams in the hunt. While the list is vast at the current moment, we’re looking at the top 25 teams and maybe a few straggler that have a chance at making the Playoffs with this analysis.
For these rankings below, we used last week’s College Football Playoff Rankings, but used CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor numbers to find the probabilities.
1) Oregon Ducks
Playoff Probability: 99.22% (was 99.19%)
They handled business against a pesky Maryland team in Week 11, though it would have been nice to see Oregon do more with some open passing lanes and what seemed like an easy opponent. The Terps hung around but the Ducks iced it late with their ground game and continued body blows.
For the Ducks, it’s just about seeding now. Can they finish with the No. 1 seed and a Big Ten Championship in the process?
- @ Wisconsin: 88.1%
- Washington: 93.6%
Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Ohio State: 63.1%
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
Playoff Probability: 58.96% (was 57.49%)
It looks like the CFN predictor likes the Buckeyes but is playing it cautious with their season-ending schedule that includes Indiana, arch-nemesis Michigan, and a likely rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship before crowning them a Playoff team.
In all likelihood, even with a loss (or two, but don’t tell the fans in Columbus this), they’re still in.
- @ Northwestern: 95.2%
- Indiana: 66.9%
- Michigan: 89.8%
Theoretical Big Ten Championship Game vs. Oregon: 36.9%
3) Georgia Bulldogs
Playoff Probability: 19.07% (was 49.03%)
What a rough stretch it was set to be for the Bulldogs. They already fell on their road trip to Ole Mis and now have to welcome Tennessee and Georgia Tech in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate to end the year. We said it last week, despite having the No. 3 seed, any slip-ups will drop them to the range of 10-14, where the other 2-loss SEC teams are at this stage, you have to believe.
And that’s exactly what we’ll see happen in the next batch of the College Football Playoff Rankings.
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Right now, Georgia’s most likely chance at the playoffs is an at-large bid.
- Tennessee: 73.0%
- UMass: 99.9%
- Georgia Tech: 93.1%
Theoretical SEC Championship Game vs. Texas: 45.7%
4) Miami Hurricanes
Playoff Probability: 67.59% (was 96.01%)
What a poor performance it was in Week 11 against Georgia Tech. As such, Miami’s playoff chances take a major hit, down from 96% to just under 68%.
Falling to Georgia Tech hurts, but they still control their destiny to make the ACC Championship Game. Despite the slip up against the Yellow Jackets, our number still like Miami against SMU in the ACC for a playoff play-in game.
- Wake Forest: 92.8%%
- @ Syracuse: 81.0%
Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. SMU: 67.4%
5) Texas Longhorns
Playoff Probability: 54.37% (was 48.07%)
After blowing out Florida, the Longhorns are two games away from an SEC play-in game against Texas A&M. They can’t get complacent at this point, with games at Arkansas and against a pesky Kentucky team, but it’s shaping up to be a SEC play-in game to determine the likely SEC representative to land the first-round bye.
Like the other SEC teams, Texas has the benefit of the doubt, but can’t afford any slip-ups down the stretch as they’re in the driver’s seat to the top seed from the SEC.
- @ Arkansas: 82.1%
- Kentucky: 93.6%
- @ Texas A&M: 55.6%
Theoretical SEC Championship Game vs. Georgia: 54.3%
6) Penn State Nittany Lions
Playoff Probability: 61.65% (was 58.32%)
The Nittany Lions are currently handling Washington, as you’d expect them to do, and as such, their probabilities aren’t going to be hung up too much on what was seen as a winnable back half of their schedule.
For all intents and purposes, the Nittany Lions have three winnable games on the docket before a ‘bye week’ during Conference Championship weekend before a spot as one of the host teams in the opening round of the Playoffs.
- Washington: 86.8%
- @ Purdue: 94.3%
- @ Minnesota: 73.0%
- Maryland: 94.4%
7) Tennessee Volunteers
Playoff Probability: 44.39% (was 36.72%)
By virtue of playing Georgia in two weeks, the Volunteers control their proverbial destiny. That, of course, means beating the Bulldogs in Athens, something they haven’t done since 2016. However, they need to still get by and get healthy after getting beat up by Mississippi State in Week 11.
Right now, the Vols seem ready to be the top-ranked two-loss team that qualifies.
- @ Georgia: 27.0%
- UTEP: 99.9%
- Vanderbilt: 79.3%
8) Indiana Hoosiers
Playoff Probability: 87.91% (was 80.29%)
What a game against the Michigan Wolverines. The Hoosiers proved they belong in the discussion and now have proven that win or lose against Ohio State, they belong in the College Football Playoffs at this point, much like Penn State above them does.
A resilient performance against Michigan in hand, the Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time in program history and deserve national respect.
- @ Ohio State: 33.1%
- Purdue: 96.7%
9) BYU Cougars
Playoff Probability: 89.31% (was 88.54%)
This was our writeup before Week 11’s games, as the Cougars are still to play:
“Like Indiana, the Cougars were also disrespected for sitting with a perfect 8-0 record at this point of the season. BYU has winnable games on the horizon, and even a theoretical Big 12 Championship Game against Iowa State pits them as a large favorite.
The Cougars biggest game is in Week 11 — the Holy War against Utah where you can just simply throw out metrics because of how this game is played. If they get past Utah, the path to an undefeated regular season is clear, and then, and only then, could a potential one-loss BYU team make it … if that one loss comes in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Even that is a stretch, at this rate, though.”
- @ Utah: 76.6%
- Kansas: 91.3%
- @ Arizona State: 73.4%
- Houston: 93.1%
Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. Iowa State: 66.7%
10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Playoff Probability: 52.66% (was 51.33%)
Despite an ugly loss to Northern Illinois this year, Notre Dame is sitting pretty with a very winnable schedule down the back stretch. They have to win out, though, and there is no two ways to say it.
They handled Florida State in Week 11 but the committee certainly won’t put the Irish in the Playoffs with a loss to either of the three teams remaining on their schedule.
- Virginia: 88.6%
- Army: 79.6%
- @ USC: 67.7%
11) Alabama Crimson Tide
Playoff Probability: 26.21% (was 16.48%)
The Crimson Tide not only defeated LSU in Week 11, they dismantled the Tigers to make a statement. Jalen Milroe is back in the Heisman Race and the Tide are firmly in the at-large role of the College Football Playoffs.
However, following Georgia’s loss and the subsequent mess that is the SEC Championship Game picture, Alabama isn’t out of that either.
However, right now, it’s more and more clear that the Tide are likely heading to the Playoffs as a two-loss team without the benefit of the SEC Championship in their favor. How high they get ranked after knocking off LSU will be interesting, and you have to believe they could very well put Georgia here and move the Tide up at least a spot, putting Alabama in the driver’s seat of the two-loss SEC teams.
- Mercer: 99.9%
- @ Oklahoma: 81.1%
- Auburn: 94.3%
12) Boise State Broncos
Playoff Probability: 55.34% (was 53.33%)
A win over Nevada wasn’t going to ever really alter Boise State’s playoff chances as they absolutely have to win the Mountain West this season to even remotely guarantee their postseason shot. However, it was one step out of the way, and a pesky Nevada team almost broke their hearts.
Winning road games lie ahead as does Oregon State back at home before ultimately the MWC Championship Game, but it’s evident that this BSU team is ready — as is Ashton Jeanty — to prove to everyone that they belong.
- @ San Jose State: 85.1%
- @ Wyoming: 93.7%
- Oregon State: 82.1%
Theoretical Mountain West Championship Game vs. Colorado State: 86.8%
13) SMU Mustangs
Playoff Probability: 52.27% (was 51.10%)
After dismantling Pittsburgh, the Mustangs are sitting pretty to make the ACC Championship Game and the Playoffs in the process. There are multiple teams ahead of them that will have split series, meaning as long as SMU wins out through the regular season, they should consistently move up in the committee’s rankings.
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The ACC Championship is now within grasp as well, by virtue of Miami’s loss and the tiebreakers that SMU owns over Clemson, if they were to lose a game down the stretch.
The troubling aspect for SMU right now is the fact that the committee likely won’t have SMU higher than BYU, a team they lost to earlier in the season (even if SMU hadn’t figured out their QB situation back then). All that to say, SMU likely has to win the ACC in order to get into the playoffs.
- Boston College: 79.9%
- @ Virginia: 78.1%
- California: 75.5%
Theoretical ACC Championship Game vs. Miami: 32.6%
14) Texas A&M Aggies
Playoff Probability: 15.54% (was 16.18%)
The committee kept A&M at No. 14 despite a disappointing loss and even worse performance against South Carolina in Week 10. That’s because the Aggies are still very much alive in the SEC picture, but also because they likely have a Playoff eliminator against Texas to close out the regular season.
It’s simple, really, because Texas A&M controls their own destiny still at this point, and knocking off their in-state rival Longhorns would make it that much sweeter.
- New Mexico State: 99.9%
- @ Auburn: 83.0%
- Texas: 44.4%
15) LSU Tigers
Playoff Probability: 9.54% (was 14.03%)
The loss to Alabama all but knocked out the Tigers, and it’s not just the math behind it; it was the embarrassing way in which they lost to the Tide that’ll seal their fate. They have winnable games down the stretch, but even a 9-3 SEC team whose best win is an OT thriller to Ole Miss is likely not getting in at this point.
- @ Florida: 89.0%
- Vanderbilt: 74.9%
- Oklahoma: 86.8%
16) Ole Miss Rebels
Playoff Probability: 32.87% (was 15.72%)
We said this last week: “if Ole Miss beats Georgia, you better believe they likely get the benefit of moving up more spots in the committee’s eyes than anyone else in this range can in November.” Now, we’ll just have to see if that’s true because that’s exactly what happened.
Ole Miss needs some serious help to get to the SEC Championship Game, but with their win against Georgia, if they win out down the stretch, they’re likely in the playoff as an at-large team.
- @ Florida: 89.0%
- Mississippi State: 95.9%
17) Iowa State Cyclones
Playoff Probability: 13.96% (was 28.74%)
With two ugly performances in a row, the Iowa State Cyclones can almost kiss their playoff chances goodbye. They were boatraced by a Kansas team that had fallen off the national radar in Week 11. Despite an offensive onslaught, their defense completely fell flat on their face and now Iowa State is on the outside looking in to the Big 12 Championship.
Now more than ever, it’s win the Big 12 to punch your ticket, but they now need even more help to just simply make the Big 12 Championship.
- Cincinnati: 82.1%
- @ Utah: 65.7%
- Kansas State: 60.6%
Theoretical Big 12 Championship Game vs. BYU: 33.3%
18) Pittsburgh Panthers
Playoff Probability: 4.31% (was 17.21%)
You could say that Pittsburgh’s chances at 17.21% were pretty high last week. And you could say that 4.31% is pretty high here this week too.
But that’s the math, and we’ll stick to it, even if the Panthers were embarrassed by Virginia late on Saturday night. Pitt is all but out of the ACC Championship picture and with three difficult games remaining on their schedule, the road looks pretty bleak ahead.
- Clemson: 47.5%
- @ Louisville: 42.6%
- @ Boston College: 63.6%
19) Kansas State Wildcats
Playoff Probability: 12.56% (was 12.26%)
The Wildcats aren’t out of the Big 12 Title picture just yet, and we’ll essentially get to that point in the final week of the regular season with Farmageddon closing out the season. If both programs win out and Colorado drops a game, it sets up Kansas State vs. Iowa State as a Big 12 Championship play-in game, and then they’d have their shot at winning their way into the playoffs.
- Arizona State: 67.7%
- Cincinnati: 79.6%
- @ Iowa State: 39.4%
20) Colorado Buffaloes
Playoff Probability: 14.28% (was 10.05%)
Now in second place of the Big 12, the Buffaloes are looking right at the postseason with wide-open eyes after Week 11. Shedeur Sanders and Co. battled through a tough Texas Tech team to get a hard-earned win, and by virtue of the Iowa State loss, now sit as the only one-loss team to sit behind BYU in the Big 12 race.
It’s likely to win the Big 12 to punch their ticket, but crazier things will happen if they continue to win down the stretch of their winnable back-half schedule.
- @ Texas Tech: 45.7%
- Utah: 65.7%
- @ Kansas: 65.1%
- Oklahoma State: 76.6%
21) Washington State Cougars
Playoff Probability: 25.57% (was 25.47%)
This was our writeup before Week 11’s games, as the Cougars are still in action against Utah State:
“The Washington State program is at a large disadvantage because they have no conference affiliation to give them a guaranteed spot nor do they have a championship game to help boost their final weekend feel for the committee. They have to look absolutely dominant down the stretch and blow out these teams on the schedule in order to continue to climb into the rankings and get another at-large bid.
It’s possible, sure, but it’s never going to be possible to create a simulation model that accounts for 12 individuals in a row that point and say ‘this is where each team should be’ for a team like Washington State.”
- Utah State: 91.3%
- @ New Mexico: 82.1%
- @ Oregon State: 63.1%
- Wyoming: 94.1%
22) Lousville Cardinals
Playoff Probability: 5.77% (was 5.95%)
A long shot by all accounts here: Louisville is sitting in an OK window for the ACC Championship Game. Can they get some help? They play Pittsburgh, which all but eliminates the Panthers with a loss but doesn’t necessarily guarantee the Cardinals an ACC spot.
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But that’s the starting point. Knock off Pitt, hope Pitt beats Clemson, and/or SMU drops a game or two, and you can sneak into the ACC Championship. Win that, and you’re in the playoffs, but that’s a long way away with the chips they need to fall.
- @ Stanford: 84.2%
- Pittsburgh: 57.4%
- @ Kentucky: 65.1%
23) Clemson Tigers
Playoff Probability: 15.33% (was 12.94%)
An even tougher road map is staring down the Tigers as they lost their playoff chances by virtue of losing to Louisville in Week 10. Still, the Tigers sit at 5-1 in the ACC and could make it with a win over their next two conference foes and an SMU loss.
We know the committee likes Clemson and head coach Dabo Swinney, and there’s still a lot of football to be played. They beat Virginia Tech, and despite sitting below both SMU and Miami in the ACC tiebreakers, have a shot as an at-large team as good as anybody ever has in this range.
- @ Pittsburgh: 52.5%
- The Citadel: 99.9%
- South Carolina: 71.6%
24) Missouri Tigers
Playoff Probability: 14.16% (was 11.48%)
What a wild way to win the game against Oklahoma, but after seeing how this Missouri team fared against a hapless OU defense without Brady Cook, the 14.16% probability may be a bit generous at this rate.
Still, Missouri isn’t quite out of it and if they were to run the table, would still sit at 10-2 to end the year. In the new 12-team format, they’re not out of it until they’re out of it.
- @ South Carolina: 49.6%
- @ Mississippi State: 87.2%
- Arkansas: 65.7%
25) Army Black Knights
Playoff Probability: 62.43% (was 53.33%)
The Black Knights needed a defensive stand against North Texas to stay unbeaten and get to their bye week. They have incredibly high probabilities now as our simulation model puts them into the playoffs more than it does Boise State at this rate.
That’s a credit to head coach Jeff Monken and what he’s been able to built just as it is to QB Bryson Daily, who returned to action in Week 11. A win against Notre Dame doesn’t quite punch their ticket, but it does help lift their ranking in the committee’s eyes once it happens.
It’s must-watch as the Notre Dame vs. Army game all but eliminates one team from contention.
- Notre Dame: 33.1%
- UTSA: 89.0%
- Navy: 78.1%
Other teams with high playoff probability not in the top 25:
- Louisiana: 48.30%
- Tulane: 9.90%
- Illinois: 6.58%
- Arizona State: 4.49%
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