The Clemson Tigers and SMU Mustangs meet at Bank of America Stadium on Saturday with everything on the line. This isn’t just about the ACC Championship—it’s a College Football Playoff play-in game, with the potential for two ACC teams to compete for a national title depending on the outcome.
Who will punch their ticket to the 12-team tournament? Will the Mustangs be left sweating it out on Selection Day? Our Clemson vs. SMU prediction dives into those questions, breaks down the latest betting odds, and projects the final score.
Clemson vs. SMU Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. SMU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -2 - Spread
SMU -2.5 - Moneyline
SMU -148, Clemson +124 - Over/Under
56 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Bank of America Stadium | Charlotte, NC - Predicted Weather at Kick
31 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
The stakes couldn’t be higher for the first-ever meeting of the Mustangs and Tigers. They avoided each other in the regular season, but now, SMU and Clemson will battle for the ACC title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. After winning their last nine games — combined with Clemson’s loss in their regular season finale — SMU enters the clash as a marginal favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Clemson has been an underdog just once this year, and they lost that game in spectacular fashion, failing to cover the spread by three touchdowns. Although that game is a distant memory, the Tigers are also 5-7 ATS this season. Meanwhile, SMU is 8-4 ATS. A defeat could rule the Mustangs out of the playoff spot they’ve seemed destined for all year, and they shouldn’t let this slip.
Clemson’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Clemson has a 46.2% chance of beating SMU in the ACC Championship Game. Our metric projected the opening-day loss to the Georgia Bulldogs but had them as a favorite in losses to the Louisville Cardinals and South Carolina Gamecocks.
- vs. SMU: 46.2%
SMUs Winning Probability
Conversely, SMU has a 53.8% chance of beating Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Our metric has favored the Mustangs in every game of the season. While the CFN FPM incorrectly projected a win over the BYU Cougars, it was closer to the three-point loss than the 12-point line offered by some oddsmakers.
- vs. Clemson: 53.8%
Prediction for Clemson vs. SMU
The ACC Championship Game stands out as one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend. The pairing wasn’t solidified until the final Saturday of the regular season, when the Miami Hurricanes—a preseason conference favorite—were toppled, opening the door for Clemson to claim their spot. Meanwhile, SMU clinched their berth with a commanding close to the season.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, with a College Football Playoff spot on the line. Clemson must win to secure their place, while SMU would rather not leave their fate in the hands of the Playoff Selection Committee. Who holds the edge? Where will this game be decided, and who will etch their name into history as the first champion of the 17-team ACC era?
Rain or shine, criticism or acclaim, Clemson continues to deliver. Under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers have been an enduring ACC powerhouse, shrugging off doubts about their approach. Despite avoiding the transfer portal, Clemson’s focus on roster retention and player development has kept them competitive at the highest level.
A revitalized offense has been the key to their return to the ACC Championship Game. Clemson is averaging 35.7 points per game, their most potent output since 2020. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has quietly surpassed 3,000 passing yards while adding a dynamic edge with his legs. Meanwhile, running back Phil Mafah has powered the ground game, eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career.
Defensively, Clemson remains formidable, holding opponents to fewer than 21 points in seven of their 12 games this season. Linebacker Barrett Carter has been a cornerstone of the unit, supported by the disruptive efforts of Sammy Brown and T.J. Parker, both of whom have posted double-digit tackles for loss. Parker, now in his second year, has emerged as a dominant pass rusher with 10 sacks.
Yet, there’s a crack in Clemson’s armor that SMU is well-positioned to exploit—the Tigers’ run defense. Allowing 4.58 yards per carry, Clemson ranks among the ACC’s worst in that category, ahead of only Syracuse and Florida State. Their struggles were on full display in the regular season finale against South Carolina, where quarterback LaNorris Sellers gashed them for 166 yards and two touchdowns, evoking shades of Lamar Jackson in his Louisville prime.
While Kevin Jennings may not be quite the same caliber of athlete, the SMU quarterback is more than capable of punishing defenses with his legs if given the opportunity. Add in Brashard Smith, one of the most underrated running backs in the nation, and the Mustangs have all the tools to capitalize. Smith has been a force this season, averaging 6.0 yards per carry while racking up 1,157 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Expect Smith and Jennings to spearhead an SMU offense that overwhelms Clemson on the ground, while the Mustangs’ own defense steps up to deliver a championship-caliber performance. Back SMU to claim the ACC title and make their case for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: Clemson 24, SMU 31
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