For Cincinnati, a victory would mark their return to bowl season. For Iowa State, it’s an opportunity to halt their skid, reinforce their status among the nation’s top programs, and keep their Big 12 title hopes alive.
Our Cincinnati vs. Iowa State prediction breaks down the odds of the Cyclones bouncing back in Week 12.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Betting Preview
All Cincinnati vs. Iowa State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa State -9 - Spread
Iowa State -7.5 - Moneyline
Iowa State -285, Cincinnati +230 - Over/Under
53 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Jack Trice Stadium | Ames, IA - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, mostly cloudy, 16 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
This spread finally found its way back to Iowa State -7.5 after teetering for the first few days this week. However, the totals haven’t seen much movement either as it opened at 52.5 and has only come up one point to 53.
Cincinnati’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Power Meter, the Bearcats have a 25.1% chance of defeating the Cyclones on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Cincinnati will finish its 2024 campaign at 5-7. They’ve already improved on last year’s mark of 3-9, but it would mark the Bearcats’ first back-to-back losing seasons since 2016-2017, when they finished 4-8 each of those years.
- at Iowa State: 25.1%
- at Kansas State: 20.1%
- vs. TCU: 41.1%
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Iowa State has a 74.9% chance of defeating Cincinnati on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Cyclones will most likely finish 9-3, depending on their final game of the season against Kansas State, which is projected as close to an actual coin flip as you can get. If the Cyclones can find a way to win out, it would be their first 10-win season in program history — a football program that played its first game in 1895.
- vs. Cincinnati: 74.9%
- at Utah: 58.9%
- vs. Kansas State: 49.6%
Prediction for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State
As Week 12 of college football has arrived, the Cyclones return home to Jack Trice Stadium as the No. 17 team in the latest rankings, set to square off against the Bearcats. The Cyclones, sitting at seven wins, are eager to bounce back from a two-game skid, the most recent being a nine-point road loss to Kansas.
This matchup recalls last season’s dominant performance when Iowa State rolled past Cincinnati 30-10 at Nippert Stadium. This year, both teams come in hungry—one seeking to end a slump, the other fighting to keep postseason hopes alive.
The spotlight is on Iowa State’s defense as they prepare to defend their home turf. Allowing just 18.8 points per game, the Cyclones rank 19th nationally, showcasing discipline and consistency on that side of the ball.
On the ground, Iowa State has surrendered 1,558 rushing yards (173 per game) and 11 touchdowns this season. With just 169 total points allowed, their defense remains one of the most formidable units in the country.
On offense, the Cyclones bring balance and firepower, averaging 31.7 points and over 435 yards per game, placing them among the top 50 teams nationally. Quarterback Rocco Becht has been a key leader, throwing for 2,394 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Carson Hansen leads the rushing attack with 492 yards and eight touchdowns, while Jaylin Noel has been a standout in the receiving game with 892 yards and five scores. Jayden Higgins has been just as reliable, adding 791 yards and seven touchdowns.
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Cincinnati, on the other hand, comes into the matchup averaging 28.6 points per game. Their rushing attack, ranked 55th nationally, churns out 170.6 yards per game. With 3,947 total yards and an even split of 16 passing and 15 rushing touchdowns, the Bearcats bring a balanced offensive approach.
After a strong start to the season, Iowa State has hit a rough patch, but a return to Ames could be just what they need to regain momentum. With a stout defense and a well-rounded offense, the Cyclones are well-positioned to secure the win and cover the spread this week, steering their season back in the right direction.
Prediction: Iowa State 34, Cincinnati 23
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