Using College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), where do the USC Trojans stand after two games in the 2024 season?
What are the chances that Lincoln Riley’s Trojans will win the Big 10 Conference in their inaugural season and claim a spot on the CFB Playoff grid?
USC Football Predictions
Week 4: USC at Michigan
Spread: -3.5
Projection: Win
This is the clash on the doorstep for USC and one of the toughest bouts left on the schedule.
Michigan’s defense is elite, and talents like Will Johnson, Mason Graham, and Kenneth Grant should give Lincoln Riley’s offense trouble.
Nevertheless, Michigan’s offense is relatively inept at the moment. Aside from bright spots like Colston Loveland and Kalel Mullings, they Wolverines have struggled to string together consistent drives. That offensive discrepancy leans heavily in favor of USC.
Shifting to Alex Orji as the starting quarterback may help, but Miller Moss safely clears him and Davis Warren.
Week 5: USC vs. Wisconsin
Spread: -12.5
Projection: Win
The outlook already wasn’t great for Wisconsin heading into 2024, and then it lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury.
USC might not dominate 42-10 against Wisconsin like Alabama did, but the Trojans safely clear the Badgers with both talent and stability.
A win here should be easily attainable.
Week 6: USC at Minnesota
Spread: -11.5
Projection: Win
Offensively, the Golden Gophers still have issues. But Minnesota’s defense is a stalwart unit. Through the first three games of the season, they’ve allowed an average of under a touchdown per week.
If Minnesota hopes to score an upset against USC, it’ll be on the back of that defense. But USC’s offense might be too dynamic for even the Gophers with Moss, Woody Marks, Zachariah Branch, and others.
Too often, Minnesota’s offensive inconsistency catches up to it against competent opponents. That may be the case here.
Week 7: USC vs. Penn State
Spread: 0
Projection: Pick’Em – Penn State
Penn State and USC are uniquely similar programs. Both programs were reasonably successful in 2023 and retained their head coaches but experienced heavy turnover farther down the coaching ladder in an attempt to go further in 2024.
They’re also similar in the sense that we’re still learning about them with each passing week. We’re still trying to get an accurate read on Drew Allar with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, Penn State’s defense, USC’s defense, and Miller Moss’ ceiling.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
As of now, Moss feels like the slightly more consistent passer in this matchup. However, the Nittany Lions’ defense has the firepower to get him off-base and make him uncomfortable.
My early pick is Penn State, with the assumption that Allar keeps trending up and the Nittany Lions’ defense plays to its potential. But it’s a coin flip at this point.
Week 8: USC at Maryland
Spread: -11.5
Projection: Win
Maryland could play spoiler. Billy Edwards Jr. is the exact kind of high-volume dual-threat QB who could give USC trouble, and Tai Felton is a league-leading receiver through three games. Defensively, while the Terrapins lack a pass rush, they have talent at defensive back.
The key for USC in this game will be to stay disciplined. The Trojans have the advantage among their talent base and at QB. As long as they don’t throw Maryland any bones on the road, they should be able to get away with the victory.
Week 9: USC vs. Rutgers
Spread: -16.5
Projection: Win
A few spreads on USC’s remaining schedule are a bit generous. This might be one of them.
Rutgers has its holes as a team. Athan Kaliakmanis’ volatility as a passer, in particular, is something USC could easily capitalize on.
However, while Rutgers has Kaliakmanis, the Scarlet Knights also have an extremely dynamic volume runner in Kyle Monangai, and they have a well-coached defense with several quality players, among them cornerback Robert Longerbeam and edge rusher Aaron Lewis.
If USC can get an early lead and force Rutgers to go away from Monangai and pass the ball, that’ll tip the balance. Moss and Riley should be able to get it done.
Week 10: USC at Washington
Spread: -7.5
Projection: Win
The Washington Huskies aren’t as potent as they were last year with Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan, and others. But Will Rogers has forged an explosive connection with Giles Jackson, and the defense hasn’t lost a step.
This old Pac-12 rematch could be tricky for USC. As has so often been the case along the way, the key for USC will be relying on Moss, Riley, and the offensive weapons. If the Trojans can get one more score than Rogers and Co. on the other side, that’ll matter most.
Week 12: USC vs. Nebraska
Spread: -10.5
Projection: Win
Much like the spread of the Rutgers game, this one feels generous toward USC. Nebraska is off to a hot 3-0 start behind not only the arm of QB Dylan Raiola, but also the steely performance of a defense led by Ty Robinson, Tommi Hill, and Marques Buford Jr.
This is a game to circle for USC, as the spread could very well narrow as it approaches later in the year. Nebraska has the talent on offense and the reliability on defense to give USC a close contest. For now, it’s projected as a win for USC, but it won’t be a walk in the park.
Week 13: USC at UCLA
Spread: -14.5
Projection: Win
UCLA barely beat Hawaii in its first game, and then the Bruins got steamrolled by Indiana. In both games, their offense struggled to gain any steam.
It’s safe to project a victory in Week 13 for USC, and this spread could ultimately widen as the season goes on.
Week 14: USC vs. Notre Dame
Spread: -4
Projection: Win
Notre Dame’s defense remains strong in 2024, but until the Fighting Irish receive competent play under center, they’ll struggle to compete with teams like USC. Riley Leonard has struggled to find a rhythm with Notre Dame, and that’s a big stumbling block.
The Fighting Irish’s defense will trade blows with Riley and Moss, but as long as Notre Dame remains relatively inept on offense, USC should be able to outlast and ride out the season on a high note.
USC Playoff Percentages
- Win Out %: 7.19%
- Win Conference %: 11.67%
- Make Playoff %: 27.99%
- Make CFB National Championship %: 10.65%
- Win CFB Championship %: 5.13%
USC’s strong start to the 2024 season — and specifically its win against LSU — has reinforced the team’s standing in the CFB Playoff field.
As of now, the Trojans have almost a 28% chance to make the CFB Playoffs — a top-15 figure in the league — and they’re also one of the top contenders for the Big 10 crown.
From this point onward, USC’s toughest opponents are Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame, but the Trojans would be wise not to overlook potential spoilers like Washington, Maryland, and Rutgers.
Nevertheless, even with a loss, USC should still be in the hunt. A second loss would make things more complicated, but as it stands, Moss and Riley are firmly in the running to make their postseason stay an extended one.
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.