How different would the rhetoric surrounding California be if the Bears simply held onto a 25-point lead in the second half against Miami? As it stands, the Bears are 3-2 and 0-2 in conference, still seeking their first ACC win.
On the flip side, Pittsburgh is the quietest undefeated team in college football. Can the Panthers continue their unbeaten start despite winning by an average of just five points against Power Four competition? Find out where we lean in this California vs. Pittsburgh prediction.
California vs. Pittsburgh Betting Preview
All California vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pittsburgh -6.5 - Spread
Pittsburgh -4 - Moneyline
Pittsburgh -180, California +150 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Las Vegas vary slightly on this one, both favoring the Panthers by between four and seven points. With a spread of four points and a total of 59.5, Vegas implies the score will be close to 32-28, Pittsburgh.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There hasn’t been a lot of line movement here. Some books opened at 3.5 points, and that hasn’t changed too much. The total remains between 59 and 60 everywhere I’ve looked.
California’s Winning Probability
California has a 32.3% chance to win on Saturday. Originally expected to miss a bowl, the Bears have a great chance to reach the postseason with several winnable games remaining.
- at Pittsburgh: 32.3%
- vs. NC State: 52.8%
- vs. Oregon State: 55.6%
- at Wake Forest: 55.6%
- vs. Syracuse: 49.4%
- vs. Stanford: 71.6%
- at SMU: 35.9%
Pittsburgh’s Winning Probability
FPM has the Panthers as 6.5-point underdogs, giving them a win probability of 67.7%. They have several toss-up games. If Pittsburgh can win a few of those, there’s a real chance it can make the ACC Championship Game.
- vs. California: 67.7%
- vs. Syracuse: 53.8%
- at SMU: 49.6%
- vs. Virginia: 65.1%
- vs. Clemson: 37.4%
- at Louisville: 49.4%
- at Boston College: 54.3%
Prediction for California vs. Pittsburgh
Saturday’s afternoon slate is loaded, but if you want a game with a high probability of weirdness, it’s this one. First, it’s still strange that California and Pittsburgh are in the same conference, but perhaps more importantly, these are weird teams.
Both teams have been in several games in which post-game win probabilities projected very different outcomes. For example, SP+ gave Cal a nearly 70% post-game win expectancy against Florida State and just a 0.2% post-game win expectancy in a game it lost by one to Miami.
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On the other hand, Pittsburgh has won its three Power Four games by a combined 15 points, but the numbers suggest those games shouldn’t have been close at all, given the sustainable metrics within the game.
That makes this game extremely tough to peg. The Bears should be able to run the ball, given their personnel, but they are 80th in yards per rush. The Pitt defense has excelled at stopping the run, but the pass defense has been less effective.
Pittsburgh quarterback Eli Holstein has nine turnover-worthy plays and just three picks. He’s been careless — and lucky — with the ball. Cal’s pass defense has been boom or bust in the same way Pitt’s pass offense has been all or nothing.
I want to think a team returns to the mean here, but it’s possible that both teams are overachieving, making it extremely difficult to discern which team is more likely to slip up.
The Bears have already made the trek across the country to face an ACC East (colloquial term) team. That didn’t go well for the offense, but the defense seemed to have no ill effects.
I’m not sure how many times a Pat Narduzzi team can expect Desmond Reid and the offense to bail it out. I’m going out on a limb here, and I don’t feel confident about it, but I think the Bears’ defense slows the Panthers and finally puts away a winnable ACC game. Either way, I think it will be both weird and fun.
Prediction: California 28, Pittsburgh 26
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