The streak is over. The BYU Cougars finally played a one-score game and didn’t pull off another miraculous win. Yet, even with their improbable run coming to an end, the Cougars still have every season goal within reach.
Now, they face a pivotal challenge against a red-hot Arizona State Sun Devils team. To avoid a late-season collapse, BYU will need to bring their best against an opponent playing some of their best football this year. Will the Sun Devils derail BYU’s season? See where we stand in this BYU vs. Arizona State prediction.
BYU vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All BYU vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Arizona State -3 - Moneyline
Arizona State -162, BYU +136 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 3:30 ET - Location
Mountain America Stadium | Tempe, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
While all eyes seem to be on the Cougars, the Sun Devils still have a path to the College Football Playoff. While that path seemed slim just last week, BYU’s loss to Kansas opened the door. The fact that they’re alive in the Big 12 championship hunt is a testament to Kenny Dillingham’s coaching.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Arizona State is actually favored at home here as Vegas continues to fade BYU. With a spread of 3 points and a total of 49, the sportsbooks expect a close game with a score near 26-23, in favor of the Sun Devils.
BYU’s Winning Probability
BYU defied the odds to go undefeated this season until last week. Now, the Cougars are still alive, but there’s no wiggle room. A loss this week would have BYU losing the tie-breaker to Arizona State, so a win is vital. This one is a true toss-up, as CFN’s FPM gives the Cougars a 49.4% chance to beat the Sun Devils
- at Arizona State: 49.4%
- vs. Houston: 87.8%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
All of a sudden, Arizona State has a shot to make the Big 12 Championship Game. FPM gives the Sun Devils a 50.6% chance to beat the Cougars, then there’s a showdown with in-state rival Arizona.
- vs. BYU: 50.6%
- at Arizona: 65.1%
Prediction for BYU vs. Arizona State
Arizona State has strung together three straight wins, and they’ve done it largely without their best player for much of that stretch.
Still, if the Sun Devils want to make a serious postseason push, they’ll need Cam Skattebo back at full strength. Even without him, they’ve been surprisingly physical, catching some of their opponents off guard with their toughness.
For BYU, this matchup is a complete shift in style from last week’s game against Kansas. The Jayhawks thrive on a side-to-side offense filled with motion and misdirection. Arizona State, on the other hand, uses motion sparingly—more to add wrinkles to their power-based approach of attacking teams head-on.
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I like what Arizona State has been doing lately, but I’m hesitant to fully back them without clarity on Skattebo’s injury status. He touched the ball 29 times against Kansas State, but he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and didn’t score for only the second time all season.
If Skattebo is at full strength, I’d make Arizona State a solid 7-10-point favorite over the version of BYU we’ve seen recently. If he’s limited, I think Vegas has set the line appropriately. That makes it tricky to find a real edge here.
One potential advantage could come from projecting how BYU responds to their loss.
Personally, I think Kalani Sitake’s squad will bounce back well. This isn’t a team that falls apart after a setback. In fact, I think losing their perfect season might free them up to play looser and closer to how they performed earlier in the year. Lately, they’ve looked like a team playing not to lose, and that could change now.
There’s a lot of speculation here, but I trust Sitake’s ability to have his team ready. This feels like a game that could go down to the wire.
If we get confirmation later in the week that Skattebo is fully healthy, I might change my pick. As things stand, I think Arizona State edges out a win but doesn’t cover, with the hook just past three.
For bettors, there are probably better games on the slate. But for college football fans, this could be one of the week’s most entertaining matchups. If you’re set on betting, I’d lean toward the BYU spread and the under. However, if Skattebo is a full go, that call might come back to haunt you.
For now, I’ve got Arizona State by three.
Prediction: Arizona State 24, BYU 21
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