BYU vs. Utah Prediction: Jake Retzlaff Dominates En Route to Holy War Victory

    Our BYU vs. Utah prediction breaks down how the Cougars might navigate the pressure of this rare Holy War, with the spotlight firmly fixed on their sideline.

    Back in early August, if you had polled a random group of college football fans, the consensus would have been clear: the Utah Utes had far more at stake in this year’s Holy War than the BYU Cougars.

    Fast forward to now, and the script has flipped. The Cougars are undefeated, with their sights set on a spot in the College Football Playoff. The question is, can they hold off their fierce rivals in this year’s Holy War? Here’s how things are shaping up in our BYU vs. Utah prediction.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    BYU vs. Utah Betting Preview

    All BYU vs. Utah odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      BYU -10
    • Spread
      BYU -3
    • Moneyline
      BYU -155, Utah +130
    • Over/Under
      41 points
    • Game Time
      Nov. 9, 10:15 ET
    • Location
      Rice-Eccles Stadium | Salt Lake City, Utah
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      43 degrees, partly cloudy, 3 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      ESPN

    There’s certainly a rivalry game factor here in the spread. While BYU has clearly been the better team this season, the Cougars are only 3-point favorites against Utah.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    With a total of 42 points and the spread so close, Vegas expects a tightly contested, low-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 22-19 in favor of the Cougars.

    BYU’s Winning Probability

    Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Cougars are in the driver’s seat to make the College Football Playoff. BYU has a 76.6% chance to win Saturday per FPM, making it the second-hardest remaining game of the year for the Cougars, who are on “undefeated watch” now.

    • at Utah: 76.6%
    • vs. Kansas: 91.3%
    • at Arizona State: 73.4%
    • vs. Houston: 93.1%

    Utah’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, Utah has a 23.4% chance of beating the Cougars at home. FPM thinks the Utes will miss a bowl, as they’re 4-4 and only favored in one remaining game. They’ll need to pull off an upset somewhere to make the postseason.

    • vs. BYU: 23.4%
    • at Colorado: 34.3%
    • vs. Iowa State: 34.3%
    • at UCF: 52.8%

    Prediction for BYU vs. Utah

    The Utah offense has been lackluster this season without a fully healthy Cam Rising, making it hard to envision a clear path to victory against the undefeated Cougars. That said, this is the Holy War—a rivalry steeped in tradition and one of the best west of the Mississippi.

    In rivalry games like this, anything can happen, and both teams always find a way to make it interesting.

    BYU might not be among the elite undefeated teams in everyone’s eyes, but their record isn’t a fluke. The Cougars have earned it with a well-rounded, opportunistic offense and a disciplined defense. While they don’t consistently force turnovers, they’ve delivered in key moments.

    More importantly, they’re tough to sustain drives against—a problem Utah’s offense has faced all season.

    As for Utah, it’s hard to see a realistic path to victory here. That doesn’t mean they’re without hope, but it’s tough to picture how they pull this off. The Utes can win, but it would take a perfect storm.

    For BYU, the formula is simple: stay focused and don’t let the rivalry emotions lead to critical mistakes. If they play their game—smart, controlled football—they’ll likely come out on top. Utah’s offense hasn’t shown the consistency needed to challenge BYU’s defense.

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    This game means everything to Utah. They’re two wins away from bowl eligibility, and you can bet they’d love for one of those to come at BYU’s expense. Utah will lean heavily on its defense and aim to create scoring opportunities with splash plays or a bit of trickery.

    Expect a heavy dose of Micah Bernard. Isaac Wilson hasn’t been poor on a play-to-play basis, but turnovers have been his Achilles’ heel. If he can protect the football, there’s at least a chance for Utah to stay in it.

    Even so, I don’t see that happening. BYU’s defense should force a couple of turnovers and pull away in the second half. The Cougars know how much this game means, and I don’t see them getting caught off guard.

    Look for BYU to cap this one with a late score, pushing it over the total.

    Prediction: BYU 27, Utah 18

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