Few outside of Provo, Utah, could have predicted that the BYU Cougars would rise to the top of the Big 12 in 2024. Now sitting at 7-0, the Cougars narrowly escaped a tough challenge from Oklahoma State, fueled by Mike Gundy’s signature midseason adjustments. But there’s little time for rest as BYU heads on the road to face the UCF Knights.
UCF, in an effort to turn around a struggling season, made a change at quarterback, and the initial results look promising. Read on to see if we believe BYU can secure the win and cover the spread in this BYU vs. UCF matchup prediction.
BYU vs. UCF Betting Preview
All BYU vs. UCF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -13.5 - Spread
UCF -2 - Moneyline
UCF -130, BYU +110 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
FBC Mortgage Stadium | Orlando, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, partly cloudy, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread was BYU -2, which seemed low. But as the week moved on, the line shifted completely to the Knights’ favor; sitting at UCF as a two-point favorite as of Thursday.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
With a total of 54 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 28-26 in favor of UCF.
BYU’s Winning Probability
FPM thinks the Cougars have a clear advantage here, giving them an 83.5% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 13.5 points. The Cougars have a real chance to go undefeated this season, with the Holy War against Utah looming large as their toughest remaining game.
- at UCF: 83.5%
- at Utah: 65.1%
- vs. Kansas: 89.1%
- at Arizona State: 74.2%
- vs. Houston: 94.9%
UCF’s Winning Probability
UCF’s quarterback change didn’t move the needle much with FPM, as the metric still has the Knights as 13.5-point underdogs. The Knights have a 16.5% chance to win the game and will be underdogs in every remaining game, at this time.
- vs. BYU: 16.5%
- vs. Arizona: 38.1%
- at Arizona State: 28.4%
- at West Virginia: 25.4%
- at Utah: 22.6%
Prediction for BYU vs. UCF
The FPM has consistently been more skeptical of UCF than Vegas throughout the season—and so far, it’s been proven right.
After a strong start against non-Power Four teams and a TCU squad now known for its defensive struggles, UCF finds itself on a four-game skid. However, the Knights nearly pulled off an upset against Iowa State last week, covering the spread in the process.
During this rough patch, UCF made a quarterback switch to Jacurri Brown, who has shown promise—displaying his passing skills against Cincinnati and his rushing ability against Iowa State. Those strengths could be valuable against a BYU defense that recently had trouble containing Oklahoma State’s Garret Rangel.
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In some ways, the Knights resemble the Oklahoma State team that gave BYU a challenge, with one key difference: Oklahoma State is solid against the pass but struggles mightily against the run. Meanwhile, UCF’s defense is decent against the run but ranks among the nation’s worst against the pass.
If any team can exploit that weakness, it’s BYU.
Last week, Kalani Sitake’s squad overcame a seven-point halftime deficit, scoring back-to-back touchdowns to open the second half after a run-heavy approach. When they turned to the pass, the Cougars moved the ball with ease, sealing the game with a rapid eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in just 1:03 of game time.
BYU’s dynamic duo of Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts got a boost last week from deep threat Keelan Marion. UCF’s struggles with defending the deep ball could spell trouble, especially with Marion’s ability to stretch the field. Don’t expect Jake Retzlaff to repeat his 13-for-26 performance against this UCF defense.
BYU is clearly the stronger team, and while a slip-up wouldn’t be a total surprise, it’s unlikely to happen this week. Even on the road, back the better team and trust Sitake to have his squad ready once again.
I believe the Cougars will win comfortably. BYU has a knack for controlling games but isn’t shy about scoring late, even with a lead. While I’m not particularly confident in the total, both teams have a tendency to score late, so leaning toward the over seems reasonable.
Prediction: BYU 37, UCF 24
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