Few could have imagined that the BYU Cougars, all the way from Provo, Utah, would dominate the Big 12 in 2024. Now at 7-0, they just barely held off a fierce challenge from Oklahoma State, where Mike Gundy’s trademark midseason adjustments nearly turned the tide. But there’s no time to relax as BYU hits the road to face the UCF Knights.
Meanwhile, UCF, looking to salvage their season, recently made a change at quarterback, and the early signs are promising. Read on to see if we believe BYU can secure another win and cover the spread in this BYU vs. UCF showdown prediction.
BYU vs. UCF Betting Preview
All BYU vs. UCF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -13.5 - Spread
UCF -3 - Moneyline
UCF -135, BYU +114 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
FBC Mortgage Stadium | Orlando, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, partly cloudy, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread was BYU -2, which seemed low. But as the week moved on, the line shifted completely to the Knights’ favor; sitting at UCF as a two-point favorite as of Thursday.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
With a total of 53.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 28-26 in favor of UCF.
BYU’s Winning Probability
FPM thinks the Cougars have a clear advantage here, giving them an 83.5% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 13.5 points. The Cougars have a real chance to go undefeated this season, with the Holy War against Utah looming large as their toughest remaining game.
- at UCF: 83.5%
- at Utah: 65.1%
- vs. Kansas: 89.1%
- at Arizona State: 74.2%
- vs. Houston: 94.9%
UCF’s Winning Probability
UCF’s quarterback change didn’t move the needle much with FPM, as the metric still has the Knights as 13.5-point underdogs. The Knights have a 16.5% chance to win the game and will be underdogs in every remaining game, at this time.
- vs. BYU: 16.5%
- vs. Arizona: 38.1%
- at Arizona State: 28.4%
- at West Virginia: 25.4%
- at Utah: 22.6%
Prediction for BYU vs. UCF
The FPM has consistently been more cautious about UCF than Vegas this season—and so far, it’s been spot-on.
After a strong start against non-Power Four teams and a TCU squad now known for defensive struggles, UCF is now on a four-game skid. The Knights came close to an upset against Iowa State last week, covering the spread in the process.
Amid this rough patch, UCF made a quarterback switch to Jacurri Brown, who has shown potential—demonstrating his passing chops against Cincinnati and his rushing abilities against Iowa State. Those strengths could come in handy against a BYU defense that recently struggled to contain Oklahoma State’s Garret Rangel.
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In many ways, the Knights resemble Oklahoma State—a team that gave BYU a tough challenge—with one key difference: Oklahoma State excels against the pass but has a hard time defending the run. UCF’s defense, on the other hand, is decent against the run but ranks near the bottom against the pass.
If there’s a team that can capitalize on this weakness, it’s BYU.
Last week, Kalani Sitake’s team overcame a seven-point halftime deficit, scoring back-to-back touchdowns to open the second half with a run-focused strategy. When they switched to the pass, the Cougars moved the ball effortlessly, clinching the game with a lightning-fast eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in just over a minute of game time.
BYU’s dynamic pair of Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts got an added boost from deep threat Keelan Marion. UCF’s difficulties with defending the deep ball could be problematic, especially with Marion stretching the field. Don’t expect Jake Retzlaff to replicate his 13-for-26 outing against this UCF defense.
BYU is clearly the stronger team, and while an upset isn’t out of the question, it’s unlikely here. Even on the road, back the better team and trust Sitake to have his squad ready once again.
I’m confident the Cougars will win comfortably. BYU has a knack for controlling games and isn’t shy about adding points late. While I’m not particularly confident in the total, both teams tend to score late, so leaning toward the over seems reasonable.
Prediction: BYU 37, UCF 24
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