One of the most interesting bowls of the season was moved this year from the front to the back of the schedule. The Buffalo Bulls have already left the United States to enjoy some extended time on the beach ahead of the Bahamas Bowl.
Can Pete Lembo’s squad beat a Jamey Chadwell-coached Liberty Flames team in flux? Find out our thoughts in this Buffalo vs. Liberty prediction.
Buffalo vs. Liberty Bahamas Bowl Betting Preview
All Buffalo vs. Liberty odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Buffalo -1 - Spread
Buffalo -1.5 - Moneyline
Buffalo -118, Liberty -102 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
Saturday, Jan. 4, 11 a.m. ET - Location
Thomas Robinson Stadium | Nassau, Bahamas - How To Watch
ESPN2
One of these teams is severely hindered by opt-outs and the transfer portal, while the other is at full strength.
As seems to be the case with many teams this bowl season, the hits for Liberty are mostly at one position group. The Flames will be down their top three offensive linemen, while quarterback Kaidon Salter has transferred to the Colorado Buffaloes and, thus, will also miss the game.
This line has been close from the start, but bettors reacted to the news of Liberty’s opt-outs by flocking to the Bulls. The line started at Buffalo +2 and has moved to Buffalo -1.5 in a near pick ’em. The total has remained at 52, though a few sportsbooks list it at 51.5.
Buffalo’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM, which doesn’t always account for late opt-outs, is in line with Vegas, making Buffalo a one-point favorite. That’s close to the current line and translates to a near coin-flip winning probability.
- vs. Liberty: 50.8%
Liberty’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Liberty has been a small underdog in this one from the start. The Flames have a 49.2% chance of beating the Bulls and picking up a ninth win.
- vs. Buffalo: 49.2%
Prediction for Buffalo vs. Liberty
I, like FPM, thought Buffalo was a slightly better team than the Flames before half of the offense decided to transfer. Now that Liberty is confirmed to be playing with what amounts to primarily a second unit, I like the Bulls even more.
Chadwell has alluded to the possibility that his team could have more opt-outs in addition to the five starters confirmed to be out.
On the Buffalo side of things, the Bulls are missing just one player, their sixth-leading receiver.
It’s not hard to guess which team has more desire to be there.
That isn’t to say that the Bulls won’t have future transfers. Maybe the players ready to leave wanted to get a vacation to the Bahamas first (I hear it’s nicer there than in Buffalo at this time of year), or maybe they want to play one last game with their teammates in what has been a wildly successful first year under Lembo.
Either way, I’m going to factor in Liberty’s losses against Buffalo’s full-strength squad more than the 3.5 points of movement the sportsbooks have. Salter alone should be worth a couple of points, plus the three offensive linemen (two all-conference) make a difference. But the impact goes beyond the players themselves.
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This is a “bowl theory” game. One team clearly wants to push for a ninth win, while the other seems to be ready to get on with the offseason. That’s worth more than the three points of line movement, especially when I liked the Bulls slightly more with both squads at full strength.
Look for CFN All-American linebacker Shaun Dolac to have a huge game in his last collegiate outing. Liberty backup quarterback Ryan Burger has starting experience, but he doesn’t have Salter’s mobility to be able to extend plays. That’s significant against a Buffalo defense that should win most of the down-to-down matchups.
Ultimately, I trust Lembo to end on a high note this season. The Bulls have bought into his culture, and that’s evident with their excitement to play a Jan. 4 bowl.
In these “tough to call” contests, that excitement matters. Take the Bulls as they suffocate the Liberty offense.
Prediction: Buffalo 24, Liberty 12
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