Ah yes, the ACC powerhouse SMU Mustangs—exactly how we all saw this season playing out, right? In their first year in a power conference, the Mustangs are the last unbeaten team standing in the ACC and are on the brink of securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Just a few more obstacles to overcome.
Up next: the Boston College Eagles on Saturday. Can Bill O’Brien’s crew shake things up in the ACC title race? Check out our Boston College vs. SMU prediction to see where we’re leaning.
Boston College vs. SMU Betting Preview
All Clemson vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -11.5 - Spread
SMU -19 - Moneyline
SMU -900, Boston College +900 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | Dallas - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, sunny, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
SMU has been a revelation this season, losing only to the undefeated BYU Cougars early in the year before figuring out the quarterback situation. Since Kevin Jennings has assumed full-time quarterback duties, they’ve been fantastic. Boston College has had a roller coaster of a first year under O’Brien, but the signs for the future are positive.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 53.5 points and a spread of 14.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 34-20 in favor of the Mustangs.
Boston College’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Eagles have a 19.4% chance of winning on Saturday. Needing two more wins for bowl eligibility, the Eagles have two winnable but not easy games to end the year.
- at SMU: 19.4%
- vs. North Carolina: 66.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 48.2%
SMU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, SMU has an 80.6% chance of beating the Eagles at home. The formula is simple: keep winning. While the Mustangs could likely afford a single slip-up while still making the ACC Championship Game, a regular season loss would hurt their chances of an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff, if they were to lose again in the championship.
- vs. Boston College: 80.6%
- at Virginia: 73%
- at California: 74.9%
Prediction for Boston College vs. SMU
SMU’s formula for success, outside of their win over Pittsburgh, hasn’t been about blowing teams out early and cruising to a dominant victory. Instead, the Mustangs have leaned on their depth and the versatility of their offense, wearing down opponents and pulling away late in games.
Boston College, meanwhile, has been a tough out for everyone. They haven’t been blown out by anyone this season, with only two FBS games involving the Eagles ending with a margin greater than 10 points—both standalone prime-time matchups that saw the Eagles land on opposite sides of the result.
Close games seem to be Boston College’s specialty, and they’ve found ways to win their fair share of them.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
While I don’t expect the Eagles to shake up the ACC standings with an upset, there’s definitely a path for them to keep this one close. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Thomas Castellanos had shown real growth as a passer this season, and Boston College’s ground game can be tough to stop when it gets rolling.
But that’s all set to change now that Castellanos is no longer a part of the program.
Now, without Castellanos, SMU already does a good enough job of limiting explosive plays and clamping down in the red zone—two areas where games are often won or lost.
Ultimately, I think that’s the difference here. But considering SMU’s track record of close wins and Boston College’s knack for avoiding blowouts, it’s hard to pick the Mustangs to cover. The Eagles should keep this close, even if SMU ends up winning the critical battles.
In the end, I see this being a tight, back-and-forth contest that pushes the total over. SMU escapes with a win that feels more comfortable than the final score suggests.
Prediction: SMU 35, Boston College 26
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.