San Jose State Spartans fans are all too familiar with falling short against the Boise State Broncos, who dominate the all-time series 15-1. Sadly, 2024 doesn’t look like the year that changes.
Our Boise State vs. San Jose State prediction breaks down the matchup, offering key betting insights to help guide your wagers.
College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.
Boise State vs. San Jose State Betting Preview
All Boise State vs. San Jose State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -15 - Spread
Boise State -14 - Moneyline
Boise State -550, San Jose State +410 - Over/Under
62 points - Game Time
7:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
CEFCU Stadium | San Jose, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
57 degrees, 7 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
CBSSN
These teams are on contrasting trajectories in 2024. While Boise State is 4-1-1 against the spread in recent outings, SJSU is 1-4 ATS.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Different trend, same story when it comes to the total:
- The over has hit in nine of the Broncos’ last 12 games.
- The under has hit in four of the Spartans’ last five.
Boise State’s Winning Probability
The Broncos booked their bowl ticket two games ago, but they don’t care about that. At 8-1, with their only loss coming against the Oregon Ducks, they have a legitimate shot at the expanded College Football Playoff.
Assuming they win out — the FPM gives them 85% or higher win probabilities in each of the final three contests — Ashton Jeanty and Co. will be one game away (the conference title) from securing their first-ever CFP berth.
- at San Jose State: 87.2%
- at Wyoming: 94.4%
- vs. Oregon State: 85.9%
San Jose State’s Winning Probability
The Spartans earned their third consecutive bowl bid by defeating the Oregon State Beavers last week, but they aren’t out of the Mountain West Championship race just yet. They are 3-2 in the conference, but a loss to Boise State would be the nail in the coffin.
- vs. Boise State: 12.8%
- vs. UNLV: 24.7%
- vs. Stanford: 52.5%
Prediction for Boise State vs. San Jose State
The Broncos enter this matchup as nearly two-touchdown favorites over the Spartans, and that might still undersell them. Boise State has scored 28 or more points in every game this season, while San Jose State hasn’t hit that mark since October 5, when they put up 35 against Nevada. The matchup heavily favors the boys in blue.
The Spartans run the most pass-heavy offense in the nation, throwing on 64.7% of their plays. More dropbacks mean more chances for sacks, and Boise State thrives in that department, ranking second in the country with 4.44 sacks per game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Beyond that, San Jose State struggles to sustain drives, ranking 72nd in third-down conversion rate (39.8%). Meanwhile, the Broncos excel at creating tough situations, ranking 15th nationally in early down EPA.
Offensively, Boise State—and Heisman-worthy RB Ashton Jeanty in particular—should dominate. The Spartans’ defense, sitting at 105th in defensive EPA and 86th in defensive success rate against the run, doesn’t have the tools to slow Jeanty down.
Take Boise State to win and cover comfortably, but don’t expect the Spartans to put up enough points to push the total over.
Prediction: Boise State 38, San Jose State 17
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