The Boise State Broncos and Oregon Ducks have faced off three times since 2008, with the Broncos taking home each victory. Will the Ducks finally defeat their Mountain West foe?
Check out the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our final prediction for Boise State vs. Oregon ahead of Saturday night’s matchup.
Boise State vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Boise State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 7.
- Spread
Oregon -19.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -1200, Boise State +750 - Over/Under
61.5 points - Game time
10 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
Peacock
The spread has seen some movement since the opening, beginning at 20, dipping to as low as 18, and now back up to 20.
Neither Oregon nor Boise State impressed in Week 1. The Ducks struggled with an FCS team at home, while the Broncos failed to cover as a two-touchdown road favorite. As they prepare to square off at Autzen Stadium, the big question is, is Oregon really 20 points better than Boise State?
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If the line stays above 14.5, Boise State will face its largest underdog margin since 2001, when they were 19-point dogs against Lou Holtz’s South Carolina Gamecocks.
Last season wasn’t kind to the Broncos as underdogs, finishing 0-5 straight up in those spots. However, after DC Spencer Danielson replaced Andy Avalos, Boise State closed the year strong, going 4-1 overall and against the spread. Meanwhile, Oregon covered in 10 of 14 games in 2023.
Prediction for Boise State vs. Oregon
Boise State remains a run-heavy team, especially with standout running back Ashton Jeanty leading the charge. Jeanty delivered a jaw-dropping performance against Georgia Southern last week, racking up 267 rushing yards and setting a program record with six touchdowns on 20 carries.
He wasn’t the only Bronco making noise on the ground, as Sire Gaines also impressed with a 12-carry, 110-yard, and one-touchdown effort.
In the quarterback department, Maddux Madsen earned the starting nod over highly-touted USC transfer Malachi Nelson and held his own in Week 1. Madsen completed 71% of his passes for 280 yards, adding a touchdown and one interception.
His main targets were Cameron Camper, who hauled in four catches for 99 yards, and Latrell Caples, who contributed five receptions for 81 yards. With Oregon’s defense likely to clamp down on Boise State’s ground game, Madsen may need to air it out more, leaning on Camper and Caples.
On Oregon’s side, the offense put up just 24 points against FCS-level Idaho in their opener, but Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel lived up to expectations. Gabriel connected on 41 of 49 passes, racking up 380 yards and two touchdowns.
However, the Ducks were hindered by eight penalties for 90 yards, a lack of explosive plays (no run or catch over 25 yards), and struggles on early downs that led to 16 third-down attempts.
Despite these issues, Oregon could turn things around against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern. This could lead to Oregon pulling its starters in the second half and focusing more on the run game.
I’m as much of a blue-field-loving individual as the next guy, but the Broncos don’t have the talent to upset one of the best teams in the nation. But I also wouldn’t bet against them covering a large spread, so what should you bet on?
Oregon ended last season by going under the total in three straight games and in nine of 14 overall, mainly due to lopsided contests where opponents couldn’t put points on the board.
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On the flip side, Boise State’s offense has proven itself, hitting the over against top competition like Washington and UCLA in 2023. They also went over in their opener against Georgia Southern, and with Oregon’s offense likely to find its rhythm soon, the over is where the money belongs.
Prediction: Oregon 42, Boise State 24
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