The Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels have been eyeing this game ever since it became evident that both were in contention for the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff bid. The stakes are high: the winner takes control of their destiny, while the loser drops out of the running.
In our Boise State vs. UNLV prediction, we analyze the matchup, highlight key betting insights, and provide tips on the best places to place your wagers.
Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction Betting Preview
All Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -1.5 - Spread
Boise State -3.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -166, UNLV +140 - Over/Under
64 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 25 - Location
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
Neither the total nor the spread have moved since opening, with bettors aligning with the sportbooks’ initial read of the contest.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
For those looking to sprinkle some cheddar on the total, the over is the play, with it hitting in eight of Boise state’s last nine games and seven of UNLV’s last 10.
Trends-wise, both sides of the spread are appetizing, as the Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Week 9 contests, while UNLV is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as the underdog.
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Despite their only loss coming by three points against No. 1 ranked Oregon, the Broncos head into Week 9 with a 47.5% win probability. That said, it’s by far their lowest on the remaining schedule, with the FPM giving them 75% or higher win probabilities the rest of the way:
- vs. San Diego State: 90.8%
- vs. Nevada: 89.8%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- at Wyoming: 91.5%
- vs. Oregon State: 77.4%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels’ rest-of-season outlook is even more promising. Their 52.5% win probability against Boise State is followed by over 80% rates in their final four contests:
- at Hawaii: 82.6%
- vs. San Diego State: 89.1%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- vs. Nevada: 88.6%
Prediction for Boise State vs. UNLV
The Rebels have long been at the bottom of the Mountain West, but that’s no longer the case under Barry Odom. Since the start of the 2023 campaign, Odom has led UNLV to 15 wins—the same number the program managed over the previous five seasons combined.
Yet, Boise State remains a tough hurdle, carrying a seven-game win streak into this matchup, including a decisive 44-20 victory in last year’s Mountain West Championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
By the numbers, it’s clear that all three phases of the game will be crucial:
- UNLV has blocked four punts, leading the nation, with star WR Ricky White III contributing three, including two returned for touchdowns.
- UNLV has also blocked four kicks (T-2nd), while Boise State trails with three.
- Both teams have returned a kickoff for a touchdown.
- Boise State leads the nation with 29 sacks.
- Boise State ranks fourth in third-down conversion rate (54.4%), but their defense struggles at 124th (46.4%).
- UNLV is 89th in third-down conversion rate, but their defense sits at 58th (37.1%).
- UNLV boasts a +12 turnover margin, while Boise State is at +1.
- UNLV’s defense ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (104.6), while Boise State’s offense ranks second in rushing yards per game (289.8).
This clash between Group of Five powers is shaping up to be a shootout that could come down to the final possession. Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty will have his moments, having rushed for over 100 yards in every game (and over 200 yards in three), totaling more rushing yards (1,248) than 88 FBS teams.
However, the Broncos’ defense faces a challenge it hasn’t yet seen: UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s dynamic offense, led by dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams and standout WR Ricky White. On the flip side, Boise State will need QB Maddux Madsen to deliver in key moments—but I’m not convinced he will.
Take the Rebels against the spread, moneyline, and the over in what promises to be a Game of the Year contender.
Prediction: UNLV 44, Boise State 38
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