The Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels have had this game circled on their calendars since it became clear that both teams are vying for the Group of Five’s coveted College Football Playoff spot. With so much on the line, the winner takes a significant step toward controlling their destiny, while the loser risks falling out of contention.
In our Boise State vs. UNLV prediction, we break down the matchup, offer key betting insights, and share tips on the best places to make your wagers.
Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction Betting Preview
All Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -1.5 - Spread
Boise State -4 - Moneyline
Boise State -175, UNLV +145 - Over/Under
64 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 25 - Location
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
Neither the total nor the spread have moved since opening, with bettors aligning with the sportbooks’ initial read of the contest.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
For those looking to sprinkle some cheddar on the total, the over is the play, with it hitting in eight of Boise state’s last nine games and seven of UNLV’s last 10.
Trends-wise, both sides of the spread are appetizing, as the Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Week 9 contests, while UNLV is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as the underdog.
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Despite their only loss coming by three points against No. 1 ranked Oregon, the Broncos head into Week 9 with a 47.5% win probability. That said, it’s by far their lowest on the remaining schedule, with the FPM giving them 75% or higher win probabilities the rest of the way:
- vs. San Diego State: 90.8%
- vs. Nevada: 89.8%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- at Wyoming: 91.5%
- vs. Oregon State: 77.4%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels’ rest-of-season outlook is even more promising. Their 52.5% win probability against Boise State is followed by over 80% rates in their final four contests:
- at Hawaii: 82.6%
- vs. San Diego State: 89.1%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- vs. Nevada: 88.6%
Prediction for Boise State vs. UNLV
The Rebels have long struggled at the bottom of the Mountain West, but that narrative has changed under Barry Odom. Since the start of the 2023 season, Odom has guided UNLV to 15 wins—the same total the program achieved over the previous five years combined.
Yet, Boise State presents a formidable challenge, riding a seven-game win streak into this matchup, including a commanding 44-20 win in last year’s Mountain West Championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The numbers highlight just how critical all three phases of the game will be:
- UNLV leads the nation with four blocked punts, thanks in part to standout WR Ricky White III, who has three, including two that were returned for touchdowns.
- UNLV has also blocked four kicks (T-2nd), while Boise State is close behind with three.
- Both teams have scored on a kickoff return.
- Boise State leads the nation with 29 sacks.
- Boise State ranks fourth in third-down conversion rate (54.4%), though their defense struggles, ranking 124th (46.4%).
- UNLV ranks 89th in third-down conversion rate, but their defense is stronger at 58th (37.1%).
- UNLV boasts a +12 turnover margin, while Boise State sits at +1.
- UNLV’s defense is 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (104.6), while Boise State’s offense is second in rushing yards per game (289.8).
This showdown between Group of Five contenders is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair that could come down to the wire. Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty is expected to shine, having rushed for over 100 yards in every game (and over 200 yards in three), amassing more rushing yards (1,248) than 88 FBS teams.
However, the Broncos’ defense faces a new test: UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s explosive offense, led by dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams and playmaker WR Ricky White. On the other side, Boise State will need QB Maddux Madsen to step up in crucial moments—but I’m not convinced he will.
Take the Rebels against the spread, on the moneyline, and the over in what promises to be a Game of the Year contender.
Prediction: UNLV 44, Boise State 38
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