The Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels have had this game circled since it was clear both were on track to earn the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff bid. The winner of this contest controls its destiny the rest of the way. The loser is out of the conversation.
Our Boise State vs. UNLV prediction breaks down the matchup, highlights key betting insights, and offers tips on where to place your wagers.
Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction Betting Preview
All Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -1.5 - Spread
Boise State -3 - Moneyline
Boise State -142, UNLV +120 - Over/Under
66 points - Game Time
11:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 25 - Location
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev. - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBSSN
Neither the total nor the spread have moved since opening, with bettors aligning with the sportbooks’ initial read of the contest.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
For those looking to sprinkle some cheddar on the total, the over is the play, with it hitting in eight of Boise state’s last nine games and seven of UNLV’s last 10.
Trends-wise, both sides of the spread are appetizing, as the Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Week 9 contests, while UNLV is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as the underdog.
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Despite their only loss coming by three points against No. 1 ranked Oregon, the Broncos head into Week 9 with a 47.5% win probability. That said, it’s by far their lowest on the remaining schedule, with the FPM giving them 75% or higher win probabilities the rest of the way:
- vs. San Diego State: 90.8%
- vs. Nevada: 89.8%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- at Wyoming: 91.5%
- vs. Oregon State: 77.4%
UNLV’s Winning Probability
The Rebels’ rest-of-season outlook is even more promising. Their 52.5% win probability against Boise State is followed by over 80% rates in their final four contests:
- at Hawaii: 82.6%
- vs. San Diego State: 89.1%
- at San Jose State: 80.2%
- vs. Nevada: 88.6%
Prediction for Boise State vs. UNLV
The Rebels have historically been a bottom dweller in the Mountain West — not under Barry Odom. He has won 15 games since the start of the 2023 campaign. That’s the same number of wins UNLV posted in the previous five seasons combined.
Yet, Boise State has the program’s number, riding a seven-game win streak into this game, including a 44-20 victory in last year’s Mountain West Championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
By the numbers, it’s clear all three phases of the game will come into play:
- UNLV has blocked four punts, two more than anyone else (three by star WR Ricky White III; two returned for TDs).
- UNLV has also blocked four kicks (T-2nd), with Boise State right behind with three.
- Both teams have returned one kickoff for a TD.
- Boise State leads the nation with 29 sacks.
- Boise State is fourth in third-down conversion rate (54.4%), but the defense ranks 124th (46.4%).
- UNLV is 89th in third-down conversion rate, but the defense ranks 58th (37.1%).
- UNLV is +12 in turnover margin, while Boise State is +1.
- UNLV’s defense is 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (104.6), while Boise State’s offense is second in rushing YPG (289.8).
This battle between Group of Five giants is shaping up to be a shootout that comes down to the final possession. Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty will get his, as he’s rushed for 100+ in every game (200+ in three contests) and owns more rushing yards (1,248) than 88 FBS teams.
However, the Broncos’ defense hasn’t played an offense quite like UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s, especially with dual-threat Hajj-Malik Williams under center and White outside. And on the other side, Boise State needs QB Maddux Madsen to connect on key throws throughout the contest — I don’t believe he will.
Take the Rebels ATS, moneyline, and the over in what should be a Game of the Year candidate.
Prediction: UNLV 44, Boise State 38
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