The stage is set for the lone top-five clash on championship weekend. Under the bright lights of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the undefeated Oregon Ducks meet the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship Game.
For Oregon, perfection hangs in the balance. The Ducks aim to protect the lone unblemished record in the FBS and secure the coveted No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. For Penn State, this marks just the second trip to the Big Ten title game in program history — a chance to redefine its legacy and chase a season-defining victory.
Big Ten Championship Game Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -5 - Spread
Oregon -3.5 - Moneyline
Penn State +155, Oregon -165 - Over/Under
50 - Game time
Saturday, Dec. 7 | 8 p.m. ET - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
30 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS
The Ducks opened as 3.5-point favorites in the Big Ten title game, and that number has not wavered. Oregon has been the favorite in every game but one in 2024 (3.5-point home dogs on Oct. 12 to the No. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, won 32-31).
The total opened at 50.5 and has only seen movement that has dropped the total. The number has gotten as low as 49.5 but now currently sits at an even 50.
The total and spread will likely see more action as Saturday’s kickoff approaches. Oregon enters at 5-6 on the season against the spread as a favorite, but they’re 2-0 ATS against ranked opponents in 2024. The over is 5-7 on Oregon games in 2024.
Penn State has only been an underdog once in 2024, and it’s 0-1 ATS as a dog. Overall, it is 6-6 ATS in 2024. The over is also 5-7 in Nittany Lions games this season.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Penn State stands on the brink of history, chasing its fifth Big Ten championship and second under head coach James Franklin. It’s a quest for glory, a return to the pinnacle they last reached in 2016. Yet, the odds stand against them. The College Football Network Playoff Meter gives the Nittany Lions a 35.9% chance to claim the title.
- at Oregon: 35.9%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon enters championship weekend with a commanding presence, carrying the strongest odds of any team vying for a title. In their inaugural Big Ten season, the Ducks have soared above expectations, and the CFN FPM places their chances of hoisting the trophy at a confident 64.1%.
For Oregon, this moment represents more than a championship; it’s the culmination of a journey, a declaration of belonging. Under the bright lights of Indianapolis, the Ducks will aim to leave no doubt about their place atop the Big Ten.
- vs. Penn State: 64.1%
Big Ten Championship Game Prediction
Penn State’s journey under Franklin has been one of steady resilience but shadowed by a defining void: just one victory against a top-five opponent.
That narrative deepened in November as the Nittany Lions fell at home to Ohio State. Yet, where others have stumbled, Penn State has stood firm, avoiding the upsets that have plagued so many top-10 teams this season. Since that loss, the Nittany Lions have surged, posting four straight wins, three by commanding double digits.
At the heart of their offense stands poised junior quarterback Drew Allar. His 2,668 yards and 18 touchdowns reflect a steady hand, complemented by a massive offensive line and the dynamic backfield tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen — arguably the nation’s best one-two punch at running back.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions shine. Abdul Carter’s dominance off the edge has produced a Big Ten-leading 19.5 tackles for loss, while their secondary has tallied 12 interceptions, propelling Penn State to a +7 turnover differential.
Yet, their opponent, Oregon, has been up to every task in 2024. In his first season in Eugene, quarterback Dillon Gabriel has seamlessly directed the Ducks’ offense, throwing for 3,275 yards and 24 touchdowns.
The nation may overlook his Heisman credentials, but Gabriel has wins over Ohio State and Boise State, a résumé no other quarterback can match. Running back Jordan James, with 1,166 yards and 13 scores, adds thunder to the Ducks’ lightning-fast offense. Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense, led by Matayo Uiagalelei’s 10.5 sacks, has been quietly dominant, ranking fourth in the Big Ten.
Both teams stand on the cusp of the College Football Playoff. For Penn State, it’s a chance to prove they belong. For Oregon, it’s about cementing themselves as the nation’s best.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Franklin’s history in big games leaves questions unanswered, while Dan Lanning’s record in close battles speaks for itself. On the stage in Indianapolis, under the brightest lights, Oregon rises.
The Ducks leave no doubt — they are the best team in the land.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Penn State 17
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