After beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys and seeing the Kansas State Wildcats fall to the BYU Cougars, the Utah Utes are back at the forefront of the Big 12 predictions, with a significant advantage over the rest of the field, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
Big 12 Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and, ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 Big 12 Championship ahead of Week 5:
- Utah Utes – 45.9%
- Kansas State Wildcats – 14.9%
- Iowa State Cyclones – 13.1%
- Arizona Wildcats – 7.8%
- Oklahoma State Cowboys – 7.1%
- UCF Knights – 2.7% (3.1%)
- Kansas Jayhawks – 2% (0.9%)
- BYU Cougars – 1.7% (0.1%)
- West Virginia Mountaineers – 1.4%
- Colorado Buffaloes – 0.8%
- Texas Tech Red Raiders – 0.8%
- Baylor Bears – 0.8%
- Arizona State Sun Devils – 0.4%
- TCU Horned Frogs – 0.4%
- Cincinnati Bearcats – 0.1%
- Houston Cougars – 0.1%
Utah Utes – 45.9%
“College football Week 4 is a pivotal one for Kyle Whittingham’s team, and could see a dramatic change in their Big 12 predictions.”
And so it came to pass. Even without quarterback Cam Rising, the Utes overcame the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, arguably the most significant test on their conference schedule after joining the Big 12 from the Pac-12 for this season.
Undefeated through four games, the Utes now have a 45.9% chance to win the Big 12, according to the latest CFN FPM. The program is also in a good position to gain a first-round bye to college football’s postseason tournament, with a 37.81% chance to reach the College Football playoff.
While attention has centered around Rising’s ongoing absence and that impact on the offense, the Utes have the second-ranked defense for yards allowed per game (260.8) and third-ranked scoring defense (13.0 points per game) in the Big 12 heading into Week 5.
Kansas State Wildcats – 14.9%
One of the biggest shocks of college football Week 4 saw the Kansas State Wildcats enter Provo and get pummelled by the BYU Cougars. Considered the favorite to win the conference ahead of that game, Chris Klieman’s team dropped from having a 31.3% chance to a 14.9% chance in our latest Big 12 predictions.
Although they’re 3-1 right now, as a result of the loss to BYU — and perhaps the manner of it — the Wildcats have a projected 8-4 record with a visit from an Oklahoma State team looking to bounce back from their own surprise defeat waiting in Week 5. Road trips to Colorado, West Virginia, and Iowa State could also pose a problem.
Iowa State Cyclones – 13.1%
Following closely behind Kansas State in our Big 12 predictions is an Iowa State Cyclones team who don’t start conference play until Week 5 but have already shown the resilience to gut out wins the hard way this season. After going in 13-0 at the half to bitter rival Iowa in Week 3, QB Rocco Becht dragged Matt Campbell’s team to a narrow win, just their second in the rivalry game in the last decade.
While defense is their calling card, the Cyclones have also shown they can blow opponents away after hammering Arkansas State 52-7 in Week 4. Between those performances and events around them, Iowa State crept up from an 11.3% chance to win the Big 12 to a 13.1% chance ahead of their Big 12 campaign opener.
Arizona Wildcats – 7.8%
The Arizona Wildcats entered the Big 12 on a wave of expectation following a sensational Pac-12 campaign a year ago, tempered by the loss of head coach Jedd Fisch to the Washington Huskies. They dispatched New Mexico in dominant fashion to open the campaign but struggled offensively in their last two games, including in a 31-7 loss to Kansas State.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Thankfully for Brent Brennan’s team, that matchup was scheduled well in advance of conference realignment and doesn’t count toward their Big 12 total, giving them an effective clean slate heading into conference play. Arizona has the easiest strength of schedule in the conference, so if they can beat Utah in Week 5, their 7.8% chance of winning the title should improve.
Oklahoma State Cowboys – 7.1%
After starting the season 3-0, the Oklahoma State Cowboys had an 11.7% chance of taking home a conference crown, according to our pre-Week 4 Big 12 predictions. However, the loss to Utah has given Mike Gundy’s team a minor hurdle to overcome and put a slight dent in their percentage chances of landing the title.
The second half of a difficult Big 12 double-header comes in Week 5, with a trip to Manhattan to face Kansas State. If the Cowboys come unstuck there, their 7.1% chance of winning the conference title will shrink even further. That game factors into an 8-4 projected record, which won’t be enough to overcome Utah (projected 10-2) and Iowa State (9-3).
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