It’s hard to believe that it’s been five years since Baylor Bears Dave Aranda head coach was stifling offenses as the defensive coordinator of the LSU Tigers. It’s even harder to believe that he went from hot seat to hot coach this season on the back of his newfound offensive firepower.
Can the Baylor headman beat his old team in the Texas Bowl? Find out our thoughts in this Baylor vs. LSU prediction.
Baylor vs. LSU Texas Bowl Betting Preview
All Baylor vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -3.5 - Spread
Baylor -1 - Moneyline
Baylor -115, LSU -105 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game Time
Tuesday, Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
NRG Stadium | Houston, TX - How To Watch
ESPN
LSU is more severely hindered for this game because of opt-outs and the transfer portal. As seems to be the case with several teams this bowl season, the hits are mostly at one position group.
Both Tigers starting offensive tackles are opting out to begin 2025 NFL Draft prep, while the two guards are both question marks as well.
This line has been close from the start, but bettors reacted to the news of LSU’s opt-outs by flocking to the Bears. The line started at Baylor +2.5 and has moved to Baylor -1 in a near pick ’em. The total has ticked up from 57.5 to 59.5.
Baylors’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Bears than Vegas, making Baylor a 3.5-point underdog. That’s close to the initial line and translates to an above 40% winning probability.
- vs. LSU: 41.1%
LSU’s Winning Probability
LSU is a small favorite in this one, according to the FPM, with a near 60% chance to beat Baylor and earn its ninth win of the season.
vs. Baylor: 58.9%
Prediction for Baylor vs. LSU
Bowl theory states that if you’re not sure which way to lean, take the team you think is more excited to be there. And in the Texas Bowl, that would be Baylor.
The Bears have won six straight games behind a resurgent offense. Two months ago, Aranda looked like a lame-duck coach after starting 2-4. Now, the Bears are playing for their ninth win.
On the other side, the Tigers have the opposite outlook. After a loss to the USC Trojans to start the season, LSU rattled off six straight wins, including multiple one-score SEC thrillers.
Then the wheels fell off with three consecutive losses in which the Tigers averaged just 17 points a game before reclaiming some momentum to end the season with wins over the Oklahoma Sooners and Vanderbilt Commodores.
However, LSU hired Brian Kelly to compete for national championships, not lose three straight after the initial College Football Playoff rankings were released.
The Tigers are looking to salvage their season while the Bears are looking to cap theirs. You can tell the difference in the number of opt-outs and transfer portal entrants.
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I’m genuinely curious to see how Garrett Nussmeier performs without his elite offensive tackle duo. Early in the season, he wasn’t often being pressured, and when he did have a hand in his face, he still made plays.
As the year progressed, however, the pressure mounted, and he began to struggle more when hurried. On the year, Nussmeier threw just three touchdowns and five interceptions when pressured and got away with numerous other bad throws.
If Baylor’s defense can get pressure on Nussmeier, he may be forced into bad decisions. Given the way the Bears’ offense has moved the ball since the middle of October, that could swing the entire trajectory of the game.
This is not your father’s LSU defense. While the Tigers get pressure on the quarterback, there’s not much else they do well. If Baylor gets the run game going like it has in the latter half of the season, the Bears could put up some points.
Aranda wants to beat his former team, and Baylor wants to end the year on a seven-game winning streak. LSU wants to reload in the transfer portal for a run at the College Football Playoff next season.
When they meet on the gridiron on New Year’s Eve I think that matters. Take Baylor to win and the over, as I think the Bears will get up early, giving Nussmeier and the Tigers’ offense a chance to move the ball against off coverage late.
Motivation is a factor, and Baylor has plenty of it.
Prediction: Baylor 36, LSU 28
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