The Baylor Bears (6-4) take on the Houston Cougars (4-6) in a pivotal Big 12 matchup on Saturday afternoon. Baylor, riding high after a road victory against West Virginia, comes in with momentum and a 7-3 record against the spread. On the other hand, Houston fell short in its last outing against Arizona but carries memories of last year’s narrow 25-24 triumph over the Bears.
It’s an opportunity for Baylor to extend its winning streak and solidify its postseason aspirations. For Houston, it’s a chance to play spoiler and keep bowl eligibility hopes alive. Two teams with different trajectories meet, but the stakes are equally high.
Will the Bears maintain its roll or can the Cougars rekindle last year’s magic? Saturday promises answers. Learn which way we lean in this Baylor vs. Houston prediction and preview ahead of the late-season Big 12 showdown.
Baylor vs. Houston Betting Preview
All Baylor vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Baylor -7 - Spread
Baylor -7.5 - Moneyline
Baylor -285, Houston +260 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
7:00 p.m. ET - Location
TDECU Stadium | Houston, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
67 degrees, mostly cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
Baylor opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and after a brief jump up to -8, it has settled back down to -7.5. The total has seen significantly more movement as the number opened at 51.5 and steadily climbed to 53 before falling past the opening number to 50.5, where it currently sits.
Baylor’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, Baylor has a 71.6% chance of defeating Houston on the road on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Baylor will finish its 2024 campaign at 8-4. This would be the most wins for Baylor since 2021, when it finished 12-2, capped the season off with a win in the Sugar Bowl, and finished No. 5 in the nation in the AP Poll.
- at Houston: 71.6%
- vs. Kansas: 65.7%
Houston’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Houston has a 28.4% chance of defeating Baylor on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Cougars would finish their 2024 season at 4-8 in the first year under head coach Willie Fritz. That would match their 2023 record, their last season under former head coach Dana Holgorsen, giving them back-to-back 4-8 seasons for their first two years as members of the Big 12.
- vs. Baylor: 28.4%
- at BYU: 12.2%
Prediction for Baylor vs. Houston
The Baylor Bears are riding a three-game winning streak, a remarkable turnaround from their 2-4 start that has secured bowl eligibility.
Behind quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s mobility and freshman Bryson Washington’s breakout performances, the Bears’ ground game has surged, racking up nearly 1,000 rushing yards in their last four games. Baylor is 5-0 when running for over 170 yards this season, a trend it hopes to extend against Houston, a team winless when allowing more than 90 rushing yards.
Defensively, the Bears have struggled. After a strong start, the defense has faltered in Big 12 play, surrendering 28 or more points in six consecutive games. Last week against West Virginia, it allowed 499 total yards, exposing vulnerabilities in both the Bears’ 85th-ranked pass defense and 82nd-ranked rush defense.
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The Houston Cougars, meanwhile, are fighting for bowl eligibility, needing wins in their final two games. The Cougars are 4-0 when forcing two or more turnovers but winless when failing to do so.
With quarterback Zeon Chriss hitting 68% of his passes over the last five games, Houston’s offense has shown flashes, and it’ll look to exploit Baylor’s defensive lapses. However, Houston’s defense must contain Baylor’s rushing attack to keep this game within reach.
At home, Houston’s resilience and improved play under Chriss make this a close contest. Baylor’s reliance on the run and inconsistency on the road could open the door for the Cougars to cover the spread in what promises to be a tightly contested matchup.
Prediction: Baylor 31, Houston 27
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