Auburn vs. UMass Prediction: Odds, Spread, DFS Picks, and More

College Football network has a full Auburn vs. UMass prediction as UMass goes on the road in Hugh Freeze's Auburn debut.

The Auburn Tigers are one of the most intriguing teams in the country, as they are looking to move on as quickly as possible from the Bryan Harsin era and into the future with Hugh Freeze.

The Tigers should, in theory, be better under Freeze, but how long it takes to return to relevance is a question yet unanswered. College Football Network has a breakdown of the beginning of the Freeze era with a full Auburn vs. UMass Minutemen prediction.

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Auburn vs. UMass Betting and DFS Preview

  • Spread
    Auburn (-35)
  • Moneyline
    Auburn (-10000); UMass (+7000)
  • Over/Under
    52 Total Points
  • Game Time
    3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Jordan Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
  • Predicted Weather at Kick
    85 degrees, clear, 3-5 mph winds
  • How to Watch:
    FuboTV, ESPN

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Top DFS and Fantasy Plays

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Auburn Depth Chart | UMass Depth Chart

  • QB Payton Thorne, Auburn ($9,700)
  • QB Taisun Phommachanh, UMass ($5,700)
  • RB Jarquez Hunter, Auburn ($9,800)
  • RB Brian Battie, Auburn ($7,200)
  • RB Damari Alston, Auburn ($5,800)
  • RB Kayron Lynch-Adams, UMass ($5,700)
  • WR Jyaire Shorter, Auburn ($8,100)
  • WR Shane Hooks, Auburn ($6,800)
  • WR Ja’Varrius Johnson, Auburn ($6,600)
  • WR Nick Mandner, Auburn ($6,500)
  • WR Jay Fair, Auburn ($5,600)
  • WR Anthony Simpson, UMass ($5,500)

Week 1 is always difficult to project in DFS. While there is information out there about which players are impressing in camp and depth charts to give some idea of the pecking order, it’s often difficult to perceive which players will actually get touches. This is especially true when examining teams with new coaching staffs, who often see roster churn due to the transfer portal.

Auburn has a clear top option on offense in Hunter, but much of the rest of the rotation is a mystery. Hunter is aptly priced as the second-most expensive running back option but is certainly worth the extra money.

While you wouldn’t normally consider many players on a 35-point underdog on a slate this big, Lynch-Adams is a sneaky, price-saving option. Since UMass played in Week 0, their running back rotation is a bit clearer. Lynch-Adams racked up 79 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries last week.

Don’t be scared by the fact that this is an SEC defense. New Mexico State allowed just 117 yards per game on the ground in its final nine games last year, while Auburn’s run defense was among the worst in the country. Lynch-Adams should be able to get you a decent outing at an extremely low price.

On the other side, Payton Thorne didn’t wow at Michigan State. He’s playing an ultra-aggressive defense, but you might have more luck hitting on a Tiger wideout. Thorne is just too inconsistent to justify starting him over similarly-priced players.

UMass’s corners are talented but prone to giving up the big play, meaning Shorter or Johnson are high-risk, high-reward plays.

Prediction for Auburn vs. UMass

Whether or not you believe Freeze will be successful at Auburn has little to do with this game. That being said, it could take a few weeks for the offense to click fully, and UMass looked surprisingly strong a week ago.

Phommachanh seems to have brought a calming presence to the UMass offense, which should find a groove on at least two or three drives throughout the game. If the Minutemen can sustain drives, they’ll likely find a bit of success in the red zone.

On the flip side, the Minuteman defense is extremely aggressive, blitzing often, and nearly always playing press coverage. The Auburn offense will hit some deep balls but may run into occasional trouble in staying ahead of the chains and sustaining drives. Hunter is likely to have a huge game, but Freeze may try to establish Thorne and a wide receiver rotation.

If Auburn airs it out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see UMass pick up a couple of sacks or a takeaway. If so, it’s likely enough to keep this one within 35, especially with the new clock rules.

UMass seems to be a year ahead in the Don Brown rebuild, and it’s not likely that Auburn is already firing on all cylinders under Freeze. The over/under is a bit trickier, but the over is probably likelier, given that both teams will want to play this one all the way to its conclusion.

Auburn wins easily, but UMass covers.

Prediction
Auburn 42, Umass 14

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