The Iron Bowl — a rivalry etched in college football lore — returns this Saturday, but this year feels different. The Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3, 4-3 SEC) meet the Auburn Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) in a matchup that lacks the usual stakes of SEC Championship Game or College Football Playoff implications.
Who will prevail? Our Auburn vs. Alabama prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final game of two relatively disappointing 2024 college football regular seasons.
Auburn vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Auburn vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -18 - Spread
Alabama -11.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -440, Auburn +340 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, mostly cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The 89th Iron Bowl is one of the highlights of the 2024 college football season, and Alabama holds a significant head-to-head advantage ahead of Saturday’s marquee matchup. The Crimson Tide takes a 50-37-1 head-to-head lead into the game, and despite Kalen DeBoer’s team having a difficult year, they’re a substantial favorite to extend their lead in Week 14.
In addition to being the moneyline favorite, Alabama is given an 11.5-point advantage by DraftKings. Our metric expects the Crimson Tide to have even greater success over their bitter rival. Being favored hasn’t always translated to a victory this year, losing three games in that position, but their average margin of victory (18.6 points) suggests they can cover if they win.
Auburn’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Tigers have an 8.7% chance of defeating the Crimson Tide on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probability holds, Auburn will finish its 2024 campaign at 5-7 and will miss bowl eligibility for the first time since 2012, which was Gene Chizik’s last season at the helm for the Tigers.
- at Alabama: 8.7%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Alabama has a 91.3% chance of defeating Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Crimson Tide would finish 2024 at 8-4 but would most likely miss out on the first-ever 12-team college football playoff in Kalen DeBoer’s first year after taking over for Nick Saban.
- vs. Auburn: 91.3%
Prediction for Auburn vs. Alabama
The Iron Bowl returns with familiar stakes, but this year’s script feels slightly askew. Last year, Alabama entered as heavy favorites at Jordan-Hare Stadium, but it took a miraculous 4th-and-23 catch to escape with a victory. This season, the Crimson Tide arrives bruised, both in record and spirit, following a humbling 24-3 loss to Oklahoma — a game where Alabama looked uncharacteristically out of sync.
Alabama fell far short of its usual standard with just 234 total yards and a defense shredded for 257 rushing yards. This Alabama squad faces the Iron Bowl with the slimmest College Football Playoff hopes.
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For Auburn, the stakes are clear: win and secure bowl eligibility. Momentum is on their side after an emotional upset of Texas A&M, fueled by grit but marred by penalties and inefficiencies. Yet, with just over 23 minutes of possession last week, can the Tigers summon the energy to overcome an Alabama team hungry for redemption?
The Tide hasn’t looked dominant in recent weeks, but rivalry games have a way of reigniting focus and fire. Auburn may have the emotional spark but Alabama, wounded and motivated, holds the edge in talent and determination. The Tide rolls on Saturday.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Auburn 16
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