There is one player dominating the college football landscape right now. While Travis Hunter does unthinkable things for Colorado, Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty is performing at a historic rate, drawing comparisons to one of the greatest ever to do it. As he puts up phenomenal numbers every single week, regardless of opponent, Barry Sanders’ college football rushing records are realistically at risk.
Can Jeanty break Sanders’ records that have stood since 1988? If so, when will he pass the legendary mark laid down by the Oklahoma State Cowboys legend?
Can Ashton Jeanty Break Barry Sanders’ College Football Rushing Records?
Jeanty has been unstoppable in 2024. That’s no surprise to anyone who watched the Boise State running back a year ago. However, somehow, he’s taken it to another level in his junior campaign. If he carries on his current rate of production, his name will adorn the college football record book — his 10.9 yards per carry being the most that any back has ever averaged in a single season.
But, that’s not the record that everyone is fixated upon at this moment in time.
In 1988, Sanders changed college football. Running the rock 344 times, the Oklahoma State standout rushed for 2,628 yards and 37 touchdowns, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Two players have come close to emulating that mark — Melvin Gordon (2,587) in 2014 and Kevin Smith (2,567) in 2007 — but their numbers include bowl game statistics that aren’t included in Sanders’ legendary season.
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Sanders was different. Yet, so is Jeanty. When you watch the two running backs, you can’t help but be in awe of the way they make the impossible seem possible, the way they effortlessly glide across the playing surface, the way they make defenders miss with ease, the way they appear to possess a gear that other players can only dream of. The play-style similarities are eerie.
Unbelievably, Jeanty isn’t on pace to surpass Sanders’ single-season rushing yard record if you use standard metrics. Through five games, he’s tallied 1,031 rushing yards with the aforementioned 10.9 yards per carry. Based on his current average of 19 carries per game, Jeanty would end the regular season with 2,071 rushing yards. If you instead based his production on his 2023 usage (220 carries), he’d tally 2,398 rushing yards in 12 games.
Of course, the Boise State running back is going to have the luxury of a likely Mountain West Championship Game berth. The Broncos are currently second-favorite to win the conference title according to College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), with a 28.7% chance of landing a second successive title. The CFN FPM also gives Spencer Danielsen’s team a 30.9% chance to reach the College Football Playoff.
Regardless of the number of games that he plays this year, Jeanty would need to rack up 241 carries at his current yards per carry to hit 2,629 yards and surpass Sanders’ record.
However, diving in beyond the standard numbers reveals a path to Jeanty breaking the current single-season rushing yard record within the regular season. In fact, based on our projections, the Boise State running back could put his name within the annals of college football history in the Broncos’ 12th game of the season — against the Oregon State Beavers, on the blue, blue grass of home — and here’s how.
It’s easy to get caught up in the overall carries and YPC numbers. So far this season, both of those are skewed by anomalies. Jeanty’s carries have been metered out by the Broncos in 2024. Against Washington State (26), Oregon (25), and Georgia Southern (20), relatively tight games with the result at stake, he averaged 24 carries per game. Against easier opposition, Portland State (11) and Utah State (13), he averaged just 12 carries.
So, for our projections, for the teams where the Boise State win percentage possibility is tighter (their hardest games of the year), we projected 20+ carries (also based on the average number of rushing attempts each opponent has faced this year). For the teams with a higher win percentage possibility, we have accounted for a potential reduction in carries below the 19 carry average.
While averaging 10.9 yards per carry, there are games where he’s come under the mark and others where he’s comfortably surpassed that number. Instead of projecting Jeanty’s season production based on an average, we looked at how much above the average yards per carry of each opponent the Boise State back was.
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For example, facing any other team than the Broncos, Oregon has allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, and Jeanty averaged 4.9 yards more per carry than any other team has achieved against the Ducks. Meanwhile, the Utah State Aggies have allowed 4.9 yards per carry when you remove the Boise State running back’s contributions, where he averaged 9.4 more yards per carry than the Aggies have allowed elsewhere.
Across the five games that he’s played so far, Jeanty has averaged seven yards per carry more than his opponents average against other teams. Load the box, don’t load the box; he’s going to run over almost every opponent he faces this season, probably averaging more than 10.9 yards per carry against some teams. That has to factor into any projection of his potential record-breaking campaign.
The overall projection for Jeanty in 2024 is 2,670 rushing yards and 41 touchdowns, based on a 251-carry projection. Here’s the game-by-game breakdown of how the Boise State running back can make history:
at Hawaii
- Projected carries: 25
- Projected yards: 243
- Projected touchdowns: 3
- Hawaii average yards per carry allowed: 3.82
- Hawaii average yards per game allowed: 120.6
- Boise State win probability per FPM: 83.5%
at UNLV
- Projected carries: 26
- Projected yards: 198
- Projected touchdowns: 3
- UNLV average yard per carry allowed: 3.16
- UNLV average yards per game allowed: 94.2
- Boise State win probability per FPM: 48.8%
vs. San Diego State
- Projected carries: 20
- Projected yards: 186
- Projected touchdowns: 3
- San Diego State average yard per carry allowed: 4.11
- San Diego State average yards per game allowed: 162.6
- Boise State win probability per FPM: 91.5%
vs. Nevada
- Projected carries: 17
- Projected yards: 212
- Projected touchdowns: 4
- Nevada average yard per carry allowed: 4.49
- Nevada average yards per game allowed: 135.3
- Boise State win probability per FPM: 91.3%
at San Jose State
- Projected carries: 26
- Projected yards: 235
- Projected touchdowns: 4
- San Jose State average yard per carry allowed: 3.84
- San Jose State average yards per game allowed: 162.2
- Boise State win probability per FPM: 81.6%
at Wyoming
- Projected carries: 18
- Projected yards: 235
- Projected touchdowns: 3
- Wyoming average yard per carry allowed: 4.77
- Wyoming average yards per game allowed: 185.2
- Boise State win probability per FPM: 91.7%
vs. Oregon State
- Projected carries: 24
- Projected yards: 330
- Projected touchdowns: 5
- Oregon State average yard per carry allowed: 5.87
- Oregon State average yards per game allowed: 166.6
- Boise State win probability per FPM: 73.8%
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