The new College Football Playoff format has truly shaken up the landscape, and that’s never been more evident than in Week 13, where one of the marquee matchups features the Army Black Knights. They’re aiming to avoid the same outcome as their fellow service academy, the Navy Midshipmen, who saw their undefeated run crushed in a blowout loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Will this game play out differently, or are the Fighting Irish poised to snap yet another perfect streak? Dive in for all the details on the spread, total, and more for the outright winner in this Army vs. Notre Dame prediction.
Army vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Army vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -11.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -14 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -650, Army +470 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 7 ET - Location
Yankee Stadium | New York - Predicted Weather at Kick
45 degrees, partly cloudy, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
Can Army do what Navy failed to do a few weeks ago? There are a lot of question marks here as the Black Knights enter undefeated and as the second-highest Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff but boast the 11th-easiest schedule in the FBS, per CFN’s SOS metric. Notre Dame showed its dominance against an undefeated Navy, will Army fare any better?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Both teams have dreams of the College Football Playoff — Army as the Group of Five automatic bid and Notre Dame as an at-large — and the winner will bolster its résumé. With a spread of 14 and a total of 45.5, Vegas expects a final score close to 30-16 in favor of the Fighting Irish.
Army’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM gives Army a better chance to win this game than Vegas does, making the Black Knights just 11.5-point underdogs and giving them an 18.9% to win outright. The Black Knights with be favored in their last two, so an upset win would likely put them in a position to be undefeated.
- vs. Notre Dame: 18.9%
- vs. UTSA: 83%
- vs. Navy: 81.1%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
Notre Dame is well on its way to making the College Football Playoff if the Fighting Irish win out. They’ll be favored in both of their remaining games, with an 81.1% chance to beat the Black Knights at Yankee Stadium.
- vs. Army: 71.6%
- at USC: 73%
Prediction for Army vs. Notre Dame
“Notre Dame blew out Navy, so why shouldn’t the Fighting Irish do the same to Army?”
It’s a fair question and one worth digging into. If there’s no compelling reason to think Saturday’s game will differ from that 51-14 beatdown of the Midshipmen, then you simply take Notre Dame with the points and move on. But it’s not that simple.
This isn’t just about whether Army is better than Navy. Our simulation certainly suggests so (though Navy’s lopsided loss to Notre Dame factors into that). Still, games aren’t played on paper. To understand how this matchup might unfold, you have to consider what actually carries over from game to game. When you do, it’s not hard to find a path for the Black Knights to not only keep it close but potentially pull off an upset.
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In Notre Dame’s game against Navy, the Midshipmen struggled to stop the Irish’s rushing attack. A defense that allows 4.5 yards per carry was gashed for 6.6 yards per attempt, with Notre Dame achieving a staggering 76% rushing success rate. Navy simply couldn’t get off the field.
Army, however, boasts one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry—the fifth-best mark nationally.
Offensively, Navy wasn’t entirely outclassed, posting a respectable 47% rushing success rate (below their season average but still solid) and averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The problem wasn’t moving the ball—it was finishing drives and avoiding turnovers. Half of Navy’s 12 turnovers this season came in that game, and they managed just seven points from four scoring opportunities.
Army, on the other hand, is the nation’s best at protecting the ball, with only four giveaways all season. They also rank in the top 15 in points per scoring opportunity and sit second nationally in defensive points per scoring opportunity.
If Notre Dame’s game plan is simply “run the ball and force turnovers,” Army has the tools to hang with or even beat the Irish. The Black Knights are incredibly adaptable on offense. They can score quickly when necessary or grind out long drives to control the clock—classic service academy football, as they showed against North Texas.
If quarterback Bryson Daily can contribute anything meaningful in the passing game, Army has a legitimate chance. That said, the talent gap is significant, and Notre Dame isn’t likely to overlook this game as they have against other less talented opponents. Ultimately, I expect the Irish to pull out the win.
However, if Army can keep it close early, Saturday night’s game on NBC could get very interesting.
Take the under in this one—it’s a service academy game, after all—and back the Black Knights to cover. This team is better than they’ve been given credit for, and this matchup is their chance to prove it against a top-tier opponent.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Army 17
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