It’s a testament to the new College Football Playoff format that one of the biggest games of Week 13 involves the Army Black Knights. They’ll try to avoid the same fate that a fellow undefeated service academy in the Navy Midshipmen experienced when they lost in a blowout to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Is there any reason to believe this game will be different, or will the Fighting Irish end another undefeated streak? Keep reading for all the info on the spread, total, and outright winner in this Army vs. Notre Dame prediction.
Army vs. Notre Dame Betting Preview
All Army vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -11.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -16.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -750, Army +525 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 23, 7 ET - Location
Yankee Stadium | New York - Predicted Weather at Kick
45 degrees, partly cloudy, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
Can Army do what Navy failed to do a few weeks ago? There are a lot of question marks here as the Black Knights enter undefeated and as the second-highest Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff but boast the 11th-easiest schedule in the FBS, per CFN’s SOS metric. Notre Dame showed its dominance against an undefeated Navy, will Army fare any better?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Both teams have dreams of the College Football Playoff — Army as the Group of Five automatic bid and Notre Dame as an at-large — and the winner will bolster its résumé. With a spread of 16.5 and a total of 44.5, Vegas expects a final score close to 30-14 in favor of the Fighting Irish.
Army’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM gives Army a better chance to win this game than Vegas does, making the Black Knights just 11.5-point underdogs and giving them an 18.9% to win outright. The Black Knights with be favored in their last two, so an upset win would likely put them in a position to be undefeated.
- vs. Notre Dame: 18.9%
- vs. UTSA: 83%
- vs. Navy: 81.1%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
Notre Dame is well on its way to making the College Football Playoff if the Fighting Irish win out. They’ll be favored in both of their remaining games, with an 81.1% chance to beat the Black Knights at Yankee Stadium.
- vs. Army: 71.6%
- at USC: 73%
Prediction for Army vs. Notre Dame
“Notre Dame blew out Navy, why won’t the Fighting Irish blow out Army?”
It’s a fair question to ask, one that bears a brief exploration. If we can’t come up with any reason why Saturday’s game will be different than a 51-14 blowout against the Midshipmen, we take Notre Dame and the points and move on.
It’s more than a question of whether Army is better than Navy. Our sim certainly thinks so (though Navy’s loss to Notre Dame certainly factors into that), but games aren’t decided on paper; it’s important to try to parse through what actually transfers from game to game. In doing that, you can certainly find not only a path to keep it close but also a path to victory for the Black Knights.
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In that Navy-Notre Dame game, the Midshipmen (and a rushing defense that allows 4.5 yards per rush) could not get off the field. Notre Dame just ran all over them to the tune of 6.6 yards a carry. The Irish had a 76% rushing success rate against a below-average rushing defense.
Army allows 2.9 yards per carry, the fifth-best mark in the country.
The Midshipmen also moved the ball well in that game, with a 47% rushing success rate, below their season average but still a respectable number. They averaged 5.5 yards a carry. The issue wasn’t moving the ball, it was finishing drives and turning the ball over. In fact, half of Navy’s 12 turnovers this season came against Notre Dame. The Midshipmen also scored seven points on four scoring opportunities.
Army is first in turnovers, with just four giveaways this season. They’re also in the top 15 of points per scoring opportunity this season and second in defensive points per scoring opportunity this season.
If Notre Dame’s only strategy Saturday is “run the ball and force turnovers” Army can hang or even win. Army is extremely versatile on offense, able to score quickly against methodical offenses or completely slat the game away by holding possession and playing keep-away, Service Academy football as it did against North Texas.
If Bryson Daily can add anything in the passing game, I really think the Black Knights have a shot. The talent gap looms, and Notre Dame won’t be caught sleeping like it has in some games against inferior opponents, so ultimately, I expect the Fighting Irish to win this one.
But if Army can hang around early, Saturday night’s NBC game will be very interesting.
Take the service academy under here and back the Black Knights against the spread. This team is good, and it’s time we see that against a strong opponent.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Army 17
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