There’s AAC action with College Football Playoff permutations on Saturday afternoon as the 25th-ranked Army Black Knights travel to Denton to take on the North Texas Mean Green.
Who wins? Our Army vs. North Texas prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Army vs. North Texas Betting Preview
All Army vs. North Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Army -9.5 - Spread
Army -5.5 - Moneyline
Army -218, North Texas +180 - Over/Under
63.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
DATCU Stadium | Denton, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, sunny and pleasant, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Saturday afternoon sees the eighth all-time meeting between Army and North Texas, and while the Mean Green won the last time the two teams met (also in Denton), the Black Knights hold a 5-2 head-to-head advantage heading into the game. After sweeping every team in front of them this fall, Army is favored to continue their 2024 winning streak.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
North Texas hasn’t fared well as an underdog this fall. Although they beat the South Alabama Jaguars in Week 1, the Mean Green is 1-3 when their opponent is favored. They’re 2-2 ATS as an underdog, but on average, they fail to cover by almost a touchdown. Army has a push and was a point from covering in their last two games, but it was 6-0 ATS before then.
Army’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Army has a 75.5% chance of beating North Texas on Saturday. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Black Knights during this remarkable season, projecting wins for all eight of their games in this undefeated run.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Army during the 2024 college football season:
- at North Texas: 75.5%
- vs. Notre Dame (neutral location): 33.1%
- vs. UTSA: 89%
- vs. Navy (neutral location): 78.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Black Knights would end the season with an 11-1 record and an undefeated AAC debut campaign. Jeff Monken’s team currently has a 30% chance of winning the conference, just behind the Tulane Green Wave, as per the CFN FPM.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, North Texas has a 24.5% chance of beating the Black Knights on Saturday. While our metric has projected the correct result for most of the Mean Green’s games this year, the CFN FPM was wrong on their season-opening win over South Alabama.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for North Texas in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Army: 24.5%
- at UTSA: 51.2%
- vs. East Carolina: 63.6%
- at Temple: 61.9%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Mean Green would end the year with an 8-4 overall record with a 5-3 AAC campaign. That would mark an impressive 180-degree flip from their first season in the American under Eric Morris.
Prediction for Army vs. North Texas
After coming in at 25 in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings, Army heads into their clash with North Texas knowing that they need to remain undefeated while also putting on a show to impress the selection committee if they’re to stand any chance of overtaking the Boise State Broncos for playoff consideration.
Meanwhile, North Texas is on the cusp of bowl eligibility and is looking to bounce back from consecutive losses to the Memphis Tigers and Tulane Green Wave, which have likely ended its shot at the AAC Championship Game. Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
The Mean Green should give Army their most difficult offensive test of the season. Head coach Morris and offensive coordinator Jordan Davis have turned the North Texas offense into an absolute juggernaut that has been able to go toe-to-toe against (nearly) every team they’ve faced. Averaging 40.8 points per game, they rank sixth in the nation for scoring offense.
Meanwhile, their passing offense ranks second in the country for yards per game and touchdowns. Quarterback Chandler Morris leads the AAC in passing yards (2,873) and touchdowns (26) while leading the nation with 359.1 yards per game. Former Washington State Cougar DT Sheffield has emerged as Morris’ top target, but they have 10 players with double-digit receptions.
Army hasn’t faced an offense like it during their winning run. Yet, North Texas arguably hasn’t had to overcome a defense like the Black Knights’ unit. The 11.2 points per game that leads the nation is the headline figure, but the defense dominates almost every metric in the AAC. They’ve allowed just 12 touchdowns all season, snagging more interceptions than passing scores during their winning run.
However, the most significant matchup on Saturday will be the Army offense against a North Texas defense that has allowed 36.9 points per game. They’ve also given up two rushing scores and 4.70 yards per carry a game, which feels important against a Black Knights offense that still thrives on the ground despite mixing in pass concepts for quarterback Bryson Daily.
Prediction: Army 40, North Texas 30
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