Armed Forces Bowl Baylor vs. Air Force Prediction: Odds, Spread, and More

Our Baylor vs. Air Force prediction looks at the odds of the Falcons breaking their Armed Forces Bowl jinx when they face the Bears in Forth Worth.

The Air Force Falcons have a chequered past with the Armed Forces Bowl. Can this be the year to get another win under their belt, or will the Baylor Bears prove too strong? We’ve got all the latest college football betting odds and a Baylor vs. Air Force prediction as we pick a winner of the Armed Forces Bowl.

Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Preview

  • Spread
    Baylor (-4.5)
  • Moneyline
    Baylor (-190), Air Force (+160)
  • Over/Under
    44 points
  • Game time
    7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
  • Predicted weather
    24 degrees, clear, 19 mph winds
  • How to watch
    ESPN, fuboTV

Can putting your bucks behind the Bears make you a profit this bowl season? Perhaps your bank balance can soar by placing the right bet on the Falcons. Let’s dig into the Baylor vs. Air Force odds and discover where there’s money to be made.

Despite their 6-6 finish this season, Baylor comes into the Armed Forces Bowl as the moneyline favorite, and DraftKings Sportsbook gives the Bears a 4.5-point advantage. That hasn’t been good news for Baylor this year, losing all three games where they’ve been a single-digit favorite against the spread.

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Baylor has beaten Air Force in the three previous matchups between the two teams, and the Falcons have never beaten a Power Five team in the Armed Forces Bowl. However, as our prediction reveals, there’s reason to fancy Air Force to not just cover the spread, but sneak a win too.

All that remains then is the under/over. Only one of Baylor’s games has failed to cover the 44-point line this year, which seems to point to only one conclusion. However, it’s worth bearing in mind that Air Force is 6-6 against the over/under line this season. Meanwhile, their last five games have failed to top 44 points.

Prediction for Armed Forces Bowl Baylor vs. Air Force

History is very much against Air Force heading into the Armed Forces Bowl. The Falcons played the Bears close in 1962, a 10-3 defeat that was sandwiched in between two three-plus touchdown deficits in 1961 and 1977. Meanwhile, Air Force is 1-4 in the Armed Forces Bowl, with two losses to Power Five opposition amongst those four defeats.

Yet, not only do I think the Falcons can get a result in the Armed Forced Forces Bowl, this Baylor vs. Air Force prediction showcases how they can pull off a surprise win in Fort Worth.

It naturally starts with the unique nature of the Air Force offense. The Falcons will force the ball down your throat relentlessly, feeding Brad Roberts to the tune of 308 carries this season.

Meanwhile, they have another three ball carriers with 50+ touches, including triple-option QB Haaziq Daniels who remarkably has nearly as many passing touchdowns as rushing scores this fall.

It’s not simply a case of sheer volume of carries with the Falcons’ offense, however. They’re successful in gaining yardage on the ground regardless of the nation of their offense, with Roberts averaging 5.2 yards per carry on his way to 1,612 yards and 15 touchdowns this fall.

John Lee Eldridge III has averaged an impressive 7.9 yards per carry on his 89 touches this year. As a result, the Falcons have averaged 330.9 rushing yards per game on their way to a 9-3 record.

The ground game has been the dominant force of Baylor’s offense this season as well. Led by Richard Reese, the Bears have averaged 2.8 rushing scores per game through the 2022 college football season. Like Air Force, they have multiple ball carriers with 50+ touches, including Craig Williams, who has averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and Qualan Jones, who has seven scores in 2022.

With two offenses that can move the ball for fun on the ground, the key to winning the Armed Forces Bowl will rest with the team that can stop the running game. Here is where the advantage for Air Force lies.

In three of the past four Baylor defeats, they’ve allowed a 100+ yard rusher. Although they’ve only averaged 137.58 rushing yards per game against them, they’ve given up 22 touchdowns on the ground. If Roberts can add his name to a list that includes Bijan Robinson, Deuce Vaughn, and Tony Mathis, the Falcons will have a distinct advantage.

Meanwhile, Air Force has been rock-solid defensively, allowing just 13.2 points per game — the third fewest in the nation. They’ve given up less than 100 rushing yards per game, allowed just 10 rushing scores, and have been equally as stingy against the passing game. Offense wins games, defense wins bowl games. Potentially.

Prediction: Air Force 23, Baylor 19