The Battle Line Rivalry between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Missouri Tigers was only formally introduced in 2014, making it one of the youngest rivalries in college football. The Tigers have owned the recent history, going 11-4 in the all-time series, including each of the last two meetings.
In our Arkansas vs. Missouri prediction, we break down the matchup in detail, offering key betting insights to help you make smarter, more confident picks.
Arkansas vs. Missouri Betting Preview
All Arkansas vs. Missouri odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -4 - Spread
Missouri -3 - Moneyline
Missouri -148, Arkansas +124 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 30 - Location
Memorial Stadium | Columbia, Mo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
31 degrees, 5 mph winds, snow showers - How To Watch
SEC Network
Arkansas is red-hot on the road this season, going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games. Missouri has done well for itself, too, owning a 5-1 ATS record in the past six contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Total-wise, the over has hit in 10 of the Razorbacks’ previous 15 games. However, the under has cashed in eight of the last 12 Missouri-Arkansas matchups.
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
The Razorbacks secured a third bowl berth under Sam Pittman after defeating the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 35-14 last week. Yet, it wasn’t pretty, as they went 1-5 against ranked opponents, including back-to-back losses to the Ole Miss Rebels and Texas Longhorns just a couple of weeks ago.
- at Missouri: 38.1%
Missouri’s Winning Probability
The Tigers are going bowling for the fourth straight year under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, but they had hoped for more after winning 11 games last season. Although injuries, particularly to QB Brady Cook, and staff/roster turnover diminished the ceiling, Missouri can still cap off their regular-season campaign with a Battle Line Trophy.
- vs. Arkansas: 61.9%
Prediction for Arkansas vs. Missouri
We’ll get into the analytics, but I’m backing Missouri even before that for one reason: this is Brady Cook’s final collegiate game. The veteran signal-caller is a proven winner, and I don’t believe he’ll end his final regular-season match on a loss.
OK, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
Arkansas may rank ninth in the nation in total offense (457.9 yards per game), but it ranks 114th in net field position, negating much of its production. Even then, it will struggle to generate points against the Tigers’ defense.
- Third-down conversion rate allowed: 28.9%, No. 5
- Defensive TDs: 3, tied No. 9
- Red-zone defense: 80.0%, tied No. 40
- Defensive EPA: -0.060, No. 25
- Defensive success rate: 37.2%, No. 30
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Missouri’s offense will also move the chains and give the defense a positive field position, checking in at No. 15 in third-down rate (47.3%), No. 22 in red-zone rate (90.7%), and No. 34 in EPA (0.053).
Even if advanced analytics were closer, the Razorbacks are far less disciplined this season, committing 13 more penalties for 112 more yards and owning a -7 turnover differential to Missouri’s +5.
Take Missouri to win and cover, with the total leaning toward the over.
Prediction: Missouri 30, Arkansas 25
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