Under the bright Texas sky at Amon G. Carter Stadium, the Arizona Wildcats and TCU Horned Frogs clash for Big 12 pride on Saturday.
Arizona (4-6) arrives fresh off a dominant 27-3 victory over Houston but has struggled on the road this season, sitting at 1-3 straight-up and against the spread. Meanwhile, TCU (6-4) comes off a bye, bolstered by a commanding 38-13 win over Oklahoma State in its last outing. The Frogs have shown resilience at 3-2 straight-up at home, though they’ve faltered against the spread, going 1-4.
History adds intrigue, with the all-time series locked at 1-1. The last chapter came two decades ago when TCU edged out Arizona 13-10 in Tucson, Ariz. Saturday’s showdown promises to reignite that rivalry in a game neither side can afford to let slip away, and our Arizona vs. TCU prediction helps break it down.
Arizona vs. TCU Betting Preview
All Arizona vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
TCU -6.5 - Spread
TCU -10.5 - Moneyline
Arizona +320, TCU -375 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game time
3:00 p.m. ET - Location
Amon G. Carter Stadium | Fort Worth, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, clear, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN+
This line opened with TCU set as a 9.5-point favorite and slowly climbed above the -10 line to -10.5, where it currently sits. There is a chance this number will continue to climb before kickoff. The total opened at 57.5 and continued to move up to 59.5, where it has stayed.
Arizona’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wildcats have a 32.3% chance of defeating TCU on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Arizona will finish its first season in the Big 12 at 4-8. In Brent Brennan’s first year at the helm, this would be a significant step back from its 10-3 campaign a year ago under Jedd Fisch.
- at TCU: 32.3%
- vs. Arizona State: 34.9%
TCU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, TCU has a 67.7% chance of defeating Arizona on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, TCU will finish the 2024 season with a record of 8-4. This is a step in the right direction for the Frogs following a 5-7 finish in 2023. Of course, that 2023 season was following up an appearance in the national title game in 2022.
- vs. Arizona: 67.7%
- at Cincinnati: 61.1%
Prediction for Arizona vs. TCU
Under the desert sun last weekend, Arizona found something it desperately needed: defense.
In a decisive 24-point victory over Houston, the Wildcats snapped a five-game losing streak. While the offensive output was modest — just a narrow edge in total yards (337-326) — it was Arizona’s defense that stole the show, forcing three turnovers and holding the Cougars to their lowest output of the season. Noah Fifita’s two passing touchdowns and Quali Conley’s two scores gave the Wildcats just enough offensive firepower.
Now, the challenge shifts to slowing down TCU’s high-flying passing game. The Frogs, averaging over 329 passing yards per game (sixth nationally), thrive when they avoid turnovers. With a balanced offense scoring 33.2 points per game, TCU is dangerous but vulnerable, having committed 18 turnovers this season.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Defensively, TCU shows cracks, particularly against the run, allowing over 172 yards per game (100th nationally). Opponents convert on 44.4% of third downs and score on nearly 94% of red-zone trips. If Arizona’s defense can disrupt TCU’s rhythm and force mistakes, the Wildcats could stay competitive.
However, Arizona’s offense remains a concern. The ground game lacks consistency, pass protection has struggled, and the Wildcats have labored to score 20 points in most contests. Against a TCU defense that can be exploited, Arizona must find a way to elevate its offensive output.
This matchup pits TCU’s explosive passing attack against Arizona’s newfound defensive resolve. Can the Wildcats build on last week’s success, or will the Frogs’ offensive firepower prove too much? I think TCU overpowers the Wildcats in the second half.
Prediction: TCU 37, Arizona 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.