Under the vibrant Texas sky at Amon G. Carter Stadium, the Arizona Wildcats and TCU Horned Frogs face off in a battle for Big 12 pride this Saturday.
Arizona (4-6) enters the matchup riding high after a commanding 27-3 win over Houston, but the Wildcats have stumbled on the road this season, posting a 1-3 record both straight-up and against the spread. TCU (6-4), fresh off a bye, comes in with momentum after a dominant 38-13 victory over Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs have held their ground at home with a 3-2 straight-up record, though their 1-4 mark against the spread leaves room for improvement.
Adding to the stakes is the history between these programs, with the all-time series tied at 1-1. Their last meeting, nearly 20 years ago, saw TCU edge Arizona 13-10 in Tucson. Saturday’s matchup reignites this long-dormant rivalry, with both teams hungry to seize a crucial victory. Our Arizona vs. TCU prediction dives into what to expect from this showdown.
Arizona vs. TCU Betting Preview
All Arizona vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
TCU -6.5 - Spread
TCU -10.5 - Moneyline
Arizona +320, TCU -375 - Over/Under
60 points - Game time
3:00 p.m. ET - Location
Amon G. Carter Stadium | Fort Worth, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, clear, 12 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN+
This line opened with TCU set as a 9.5-point favorite and slowly climbed above the -10 line to -10.5, where it currently sits. There is a chance this number will continue to climb before kickoff. The total opened at 57.5 and continued to move up to 60, where it has stayed.
Arizona’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wildcats have a 32.3% chance of defeating TCU on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If the win probabilities hold, Arizona will finish its first season in the Big 12 at 4-8. In Brent Brennan’s first year at the helm, this would be a significant step back from its 10-3 campaign a year ago under Jedd Fisch.
- at TCU: 32.3%
- vs. Arizona State: 34.9%
TCU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, TCU has a 67.7% chance of defeating Arizona on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, TCU will finish the 2024 season with a record of 8-4. This is a step in the right direction for the Frogs following a 5-7 finish in 2023. Of course, that 2023 season was following up an appearance in the national title game in 2022.
- vs. Arizona: 67.7%
- at Cincinnati: 61.1%
Prediction for Arizona vs. TCU
Under the desert sun last weekend, Arizona discovered something it had been searching for all season: defense.
In a commanding 24-point win over Houston, the Wildcats snapped their five-game losing streak. While the offense was steady — narrowly outgaining Houston in total yards (337-326) — it was Arizona’s defense that set the tone. The Wildcats forced three turnovers and held the Cougars to their lowest scoring output of the season. Noah Fifita’s two passing touchdowns and Quali Conley’s pair of scores provided just enough offensive spark.
Next up is a tougher challenge: slowing down TCU’s potent passing game. The Horned Frogs, averaging over 329 passing yards per game (sixth nationally), are at their best when they protect the football. With a balanced offense scoring 33.2 points per game, TCU is explosive but has shown vulnerability, committing 18 turnovers this season.
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On defense, TCU has its own weaknesses, particularly against the run, where they allow over 172 yards per game (100th nationally). Opponents have converted 44.4% of third downs against them and score on nearly 94% of red-zone trips.
For Arizona, the key will be disrupting TCU’s rhythm and forcing mistakes, which could keep the game within reach.
That said, Arizona’s offense still faces significant hurdles. The rushing attack has been inconsistent, pass protection remains a problem, and the Wildcats have struggled to hit 20 points in many games.
Against a TCU defense that has shown cracks, Arizona will need to raise its offensive performance to have a chance.
This matchup features a clash between TCU’s high-powered passing attack and Arizona’s resurgent defense. The question is: can the Wildcats build on last week’s momentum, or will TCU’s offensive firepower be too much to handle? Ultimately, I think TCU pulls away in the second half.
Prediction: TCU 37, Arizona 24
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