The Arizona State Sun Devils were expected to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 in the preseason, while the Oklahoma State Cowboys were a conference favorite. Ahead of their matchup on Saturday, the script has been flipped, with the Cowboys crashing and the Sun Devils soaring in their new conference home.
Our Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State prediction dives into all the essential details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State Betting Preview
All Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
Oklahoma State -1.5 - Spread
Arizona State -3 - Moneyline
Arizona State -155, Oklahoma State +130 - Over/Under
59 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Boone Pickens Stadium | Stillwater, OK - Predicted Weather at Kick
64 degrees, cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
Ahead of their transition to the Big 12, Arizona State faced Oklahoma State in a home-and-home schedule the past two seasons, losing by a double-digit margin each time. That allowed the Cowboys to pull ahead in the all-time series, with five games split 3-2 in Oklahoma State’s favor. However, with the current state of each program, the Sun Devils are favored in Week 10.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Underestimated for much of the 2024 season despite early results, Arizona State have only been favored three times prior to their matchup with Oklahoma State. They won each time. When they win, the Sun Devils cover, with their only failure to cover the spread this year coming in losses. Oklahoma State has covered just three times this year, matching their overall record.
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Arizona State has a 47.5% chance of beating Oklahoma State on Saturday night. While that’s a different mindset to DraftKings, it’s worth noting that our metric forecast the Sun Devils’ win over the Texas State Bobcats and Utah Utes when they were made underdogs by the oddsmakers.
The remaining win probabilities for Arizona State in the 2024 season are below:
- at Oklahoma State: 47.5%
- vs. UCF: 70.3%
- at Kansas State: 24.7%
- vs. BYU: 24.5%
- at Arizona: 42.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Sun Devils would end the year with a 6-6 record, a three-win growth in the second year under Kenny Dillingham. It would also secure bowl eligibility for the program for the first time since 2021.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oklahoma State has a 52.5% chance of beating the Sun Devils on Saturday evening. Our metric previously correctly projected the Cowboys to lose to the West Virginia Mountaineers when they were a betting favorite but made them a favorite ahead of the defeat to the Utah Utes.
The remaining win probabilities for Oklahoma State in the 2024 season are below:
- vs. Arizona State: 52.5%
- at TCU: 39.4%
- vs. Texas Tech: 51.2%
- at Colorado: 34.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Cowboys would end the season with a 5-7 record, ending a run of winning campaigns that stretches back to Mike Gundy’s first year. With a 2-7 conference record, they would finish the year near the bottom of the Big 12 after being touted as a preseason favorite.
Prediction for Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State has been the model of consistency under head coach Gundy, and with the reigning Doak Walker Award winner returning in 2024, the Cowboys were expected to pick up the mantle left behind by the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners to become the new force in the Big 12 conference.
Except, it hasn’t played out that way. Between injuries and a lack of form, they enter the game against a blossoming Arizona State side staring down the barrel of a losing season for the first time in nearly 20 years. Can they steady the ship and get a Week 10 win over the Sun Devils? Who has the edge, and where will the crucial battles unfold?
The keys to this game reside with the ground game. Even amid a difficult season, Ollie Gordon II is Oklahoma State’s most dangerous offensive playmaker. If he can get going, the Cowboys can go toe-to-toe with any offense. However, Arizona State boasts one of the top run defenses in the Big 12, giving up just eight rushing touchdowns and allowing 3.48 yards per carry.
Conversely, Oklahoma State has allowed 6.05 yards per carry this year, giving up 17 rushing touchdowns that rank 15th of the 16 teams in the Big 12. That will be music to the ears of Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo, who has averaged 5.7 yards per carry, rushed for 10 scores, and tallied over 1,000 total scrimmage yards as one of the football’s most talented players.
The return of quarterback Sam Leavitt will further bolster Arizona State. The former Michigan State Spartans signal-caller spent the offseason competing with Jeff Sims for the starting role, but having won the job in camp, Leavitt impressed in the first few weeks of the season. His absence due to injury was notable in the defeat to the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Oklahoma State gets its own piece of injury good news this week, with star defensive back Trey Rucker returning to the field. However, with players like Cameron Epps, Nick Martin, and Collin Oliver absent due to injury, a defense that has allowed 29.9 points per game (102nd in the nation) likely won’t hold back the Sun Devils from securing bowl eligibility in Week 10.
Prediction: Arizona State 30, Oklahoma State 23
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