Arizona State’s Big 12 Chances After Week 12: Sun Devils’ Stay Alive In Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios

    The Arizona State Sun Devils knocked off Kansas State in Week 12, improving their Big 12 Championship Game odds and Playoff chances all at the same time.

    The dream season has continued for the Arizona State Sun Devils, knocking off Kansas State in Week 12 and keeping their hopes of a postseason berth alive. How do they stack up against the rest of the conference and what does their road map look like going forward?

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    Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Chances

    Arizona State continues to do what they need to do to keep their postseason hopes alive. The Sun Devils handled Kansas State for four quarters and improved to 8-2.

    In doing so, they knocked the Wildcats out of postseason contention and pushed the race to a four-team grouping vying for two spots. BYU holds the inside edge as they sit undefeated in Big 12 play with Colorado the only other team above Arizona State.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    Entering the weekend, Arizona State had just a 2.64% chance to make the conference championship game. Now, following their win against Kansas State, the Sun Devils have a 7.04% chance to make the Big 12 Championship Game.

    Here’s how they can do it.

    How Can Arizona State Make the Big 12 Championship Game?

    First things first, they need to win their final two games of the season. That would include knocking BYU from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 13, but certainly that doesn’t mean they would overtake them from the top spot, but it would put pressure on BYU to win their next game all the same.

    Arizona State winning out would push BYU to a 1-loss tie with Colorado, so the next step up would be Colorado losing one of their final two games and Iowa State also losing one of their two final games. Both of these latter two options are feasible.

    Colorado travels to Kansas and then hosts Oklahoma State. Those are both games they should win, but Kansas has been a pesky thorn in team’s sides this season and Oklahoma State will always have a chance in any game as long as Mike Gundy is the head coach.

    For Iowa State, they play at Utah and then their annual rivalry game against Kansas State — Farmaggedeon — to close out the year. They’ll be favored in both contests, so for the sake of this exercise, let’s look at the most likely scenario to unfold for Arizona State to make the Big 12 Championship Game.

    That most likely scenario is that Colorado drops a game — most likely on the road to Kansas — and pushes the second-place spot in the Big 12 to a three-way tie. Between Colorado, Iowa State, and Arizona State all at 7-2 in conference play, here’s how the tiebreaker scenarios would go.

    The Big 12’s first tiebreaker scenario between multiple teams is simply winning percentage in games among each other. Arizona State did not play Iowa State nor Colorado in the regular season and the Cyclones and Buffaloes haven’t played each other either. So it goes to tiebreaker No. 2, or simply ‘win percentage against common conference opponents’ between tied teams.

    Arizona State, Colorado, and Iowa State have multiple common conference opponents: UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Utah, and Kansas. Here’s how the three teams fared in each of those contests:

    • vs. UCF
      Arizona State: W (35-31)
      Colorado: W (48-21)
      Iowa State: W (38-35)
    • vs. Kansas State
      Arizona State: W (24-14)
      Colorado: L (31-28)
      Iowa State: (hypothetical) W
    • vs. Cincinnati
      Arizona State: L (24-14)
      Colorado: W (34-23)
      Iowa State: W (34-17)
    • vs. Texas Tech
      Arizona State: L (30-22)
      Colorado: W (41-27)
      Iowa State: L (23-22)
    • vs. Utah
      Arizona State: W (27-19)
      Colorado: W (49-24)
      Iowa State: (hypothetical) W
    • vs. Kansas
      Arizona State: W (35-31)
      Colorado: (hypothetical) L
      Iowa State: L (45-36)

    Here’s how that stacks up in terms of winning percentage.

    • Arizona State: 4-2
    • Colorado: 4-2
    • Iowa State: 4-2

    In other words: Chaos.

    Now, on to tiebreaker scenario No. 3, which is win percentage against next-highest-placed common opponents, which doesn’t apply. So we land on tiebreaker No. 4, which is the combined winning percentage of conference opponents.

    • Arizona State’s combined opponent win record: 45-43
    • Colorado’s combined opponent win record: 43-47
    • Iowa State’s combined opponent win record: 43-45

    And that’s how Arizona State would make it.

    Let’s make it clear here: Arizona State needs absolute chaos and some serious luck to get there. And these numbers are also subject to change as the rest of the season unfolds. But as crazy as it may sound, the Sun Devils are very much alive in the Big 12 Championship Race.

    Current Big 12 Standings

    1. BYU Cougars: 6-0 (9-0 overall)
    2. Colorado Buffaloes: 6-1 (8-2)
    3. Arizona State Sun Devils: 5-2 (8-2)
    4. Iowa State Cyclones: 5-2 (8-2)
    5. Baylor Bears: 4-3 (6-4)
    6. Kansas State Wildcats: 4-3 (7-3)
    7. TCU Horned Frogs: 4-3 (6-4)
    8. Texas Tech Red Raiders: 4-3 (6-4)
    9. West Virginia Mountaineers: 4-3 (5-5)
    10. Cincinnati Bearcats: 3-4 (5-5)
    11. Houston Cougars: 3-4 (4-6)
    12. Kansas Jayhawks: 2-4 (3-6)
    13. UCF Knights: 2-5 (4-6)
    14. Arizona Wildcats: 2-5 (4-6)
    15. Utah Utes: 1-6 (4-6)
    16. Oklahoma State Cowboys: 0-7 (3-7)

    Latest Arizona State Playoff Probability Following Week 12

    So, as with any team who has a chance to win their conference championship, the Sun Devils have some hope to make the College Football Playoffs. Following their win over Kansas State, the Sun Devils chances have climbed all the way to 12.99%.

    That’s a massive spike from under 2.00% a week ago. Given their success this season when they’re a healthy unit, and the luck they need to make the Big 12 Championship Game, it could be said that they could even get in as an at-large team.

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    Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, they haven’t been placed in the College Football Playoff committee’s top 25 rankings just yet. A win against the formerly No. 16-ranked Kansas State team, however, should change that. We’ll then get a good glimpse at just how realistic the Sun Devils’ chances are.

    Sun Devils’ Remaining Schedule

    Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Sun Devils, but with our projected winning probability attached. These are subject to change based on the final data inputs from the weekend.

    • vs. BYU 34.3%
    • @ Arizona 54.3%

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